Identification of monetary policy in SVAR models: a data-oriented perspective

In the literature using short-run timing restrictions to identify monetary policy shocks in vector-auto-regressions (VAR) there is a debate on whether (i) contemporaneous real activity and prices or (ii) only data typically observed with high frequency should be assumed to be in the information set of the central bank when the interest rate decision is taken. This paper applies graphical modeling theory, a data-based tool, in a small-scale VAR of the US economy to shed light on this issue. Results corroborate the second type of assumption.     

THE EFFECTS OF FISCAL POLICY SHOCKS IN SVAR MODELS: A GRAPHICAL MODELLING APPROACH

We apply graphical modelling (GM) theory to identify fiscal policy shocks in SVAR models of the US economy. Unlike other econometric approaches – which achieve identification by relying on potentially contentious a priori assumptions – GM is a data based tool. Our results are in line with Keynesian theoretical models, being also quantitatively similar to those obtained in the recent SVAR literature à la Blanchard and Perotti (2002) , and contrast with neoclassical real business cycle predictions. Stability checks confirm that our findings are not driven by sample selection.     

Text Analysis Software: Commonalities,Differences and Limitations: The Results of a Review

In this paper we discuss the tendencies infunctionality and technology of software for textanalysis and reflect on those areas where moredevelopment is needed. The basis for this discussionforms a comprehensive review of fifteen currentlyavailable software for text analysis (Alexa and Zuell,1999). In the review the following software packageswere individually presented in a detailed andextensive manner: AQUAD, ATLAS.ti, CoAn, Code-A-Text,DICTION, DIMAP-MCCA, HyperRESEARCH, KEDS,NUD^*IST, QED, TATOE, TEXTPACK, TextSmart,WinMAXpro, and WordStat. Here we only delineate ourmethodology and criteria for selecting which programsto review and concentrate on discussing the types ofsupport the selected programs offer, the commonalitiesand differences of their functionality, point to someof their shortcomings and put forward suggestions forfuture development.     

Foreign Direct Investment and Trade: A Study on Selected Brazilian Industries

This study aims to investigate whether foreign direct investment (FDI) growth improved the Brazilian foreign trade in the long run and whether there is a predictable relationship between a firm's FDI strategy and a firm's foreign trade. We applied moderated multiple regressions and generalized linear models to test the effects of FDI on both export and import equations of 11 Brazilian industries from 1996 to 2009. Our data sources include the Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade Ministry, Central Bank of Brazil, and the Applied Research Institute. Results showed that FDI is correlated with increased exports in the short run, but not in the long run. In the long run, the positive relationship between FDI and exports will only occur for export-oriented industries in which resource-seeking strategies are preponderant. We found a positive relationship between imports and FDI in the short run, particularly in import-oriented industries. A negative relationship between FDI and imports was found in the long run.     

A Fiscal Stimulus and Jobless Recovery

We analyze the effects of a government‐spending expansion in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with Mortensen–Pissarides labor‐market frictions, deep habits in private and public consumption, investment adjustment costs, a constant elasticity of substitution (CES) production function, and adjustments in employment at both intensive and extensive margins. The combination of deep habits and CES technology is crucial. The presence of deep habits magnifies the responses of macroeconomic variables to a fiscal stimulus, while an elasticity of substitution between capital and labor in the range of available estimates allows the model to produce a scenario compatible with the observed jobless recovery.     

Islamic financing and bank risks: The case of Malaysia

We examine whether Islamic financing can explain three important bank risks in a country with a dual banking system: credit risk, interest‐rate risk, and liquidity risk. Using Malaysian data, we find that commercial banks with Islamic financing have significantly lower credit and liquidity risks but significantly higher interest‐rate risk than banks without Islamic financing. There is also evidence that bank size is significantly related to credit risk; the proportion of loan sales to total liabilities and bank size are significant determinants of interest‐rate risk; and off‐balance‐sheet financing, the extent of securitization, loan volatility, bank capital, and bank size are statistically significantly related to liquidity risk. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Beyond the Pampas: Global capital and uneven development in Argentine soybean expansion

The article analyses the social processes introduced by globalization into agrarian production systems. In particular, it explores how capital installs a new agriculture that generates an urban fringe in rural localities. We claim that the expansion of agricultural frontiers is also associated with the rise of new actors, residential changes and transformations in labour markets. The objective is to study the transformation that takes place in the agrarian social structure of a marginal agricultural area. It shows how this transformation leads to new residential behaviour that redefines the local relational system and to a transition from a “peasant” way of life to an urban‐type through the logic of the expulsion of the peasant population and the logic of agribusiness.     

How limiting is finance for Dutch dairy farms? A dynamic profit analysis

Accessibility to financial resources is considered a prevalent problem in the agricultural sector. We develop an approach to quantify the long-term opportunity costs of financial constraints in relation to peers who do not face any financial constraints. Using data on past financial performance, we assess creditworthiness and the size of an additional accessible bank loan to farmers. Combining this with data on reported expenditure, we determine the accessible finance. We quantify the opportunity cost as the forgone dynamic profit (intertemporal profit in current-value terms) from financial constraints. Using data envelopment analysis, we apply our approach to 264 specialised Dutch dairy farms for the years 2006–2017 and explore the potential impact of changes in finance provision for several scenarios. Our results show an increasing gap between frontrunners and other farmers, as the latter generate progressively less dynamic profit in comparison to their best peers. The gap between the dynamic profit of the average farm and that of its best peers from their production and investment decisions made over the span of 1 year grew from €40,040 in 2009 to €114,548 in 2017. However, the growth is not driven by insufficient access to finance. Financial constraints can only explain 6% of the forgone dynamic profit in 2009 and as little as 1% for 2017. The number of farms classified as financially constrained in comparison to their peers decreases in our sample from 44% in 2009 to 8% in 2017. This suggests that non-financial factors are driving the growing gap.