Stock Market Volatility and Economic Factors

This paper examines the ability of rational economic factors to explain stock market volatility. A simple model of the economy under uncertainty identifies four determinants of stock market volatility: uncertainty about the price level, the riskless rate of interest, the risk premium on equity and the ratio of expected profits to expected revenues. In initial tests these variables have significant explanatory power and account for over 50 per cent of the variation in market volatility from 1929 to 1989. When the regression coefficients are allowed to vary over time using cluster regression, the four factors explain over 90 per cent of the variation in market volatility. The results are useful in explaining the past behavior of stock market volatility and in forecasting future volatility.     

The Control of Technology Alliances: An Empirical Analysis of the Biotechnology Industry

We examine the determinants of control rights in biotechnology alliances through three case studies and a quantitative analysis. Aghion and Tirole [1994] argue that control rights will be assigned so as to maximize the value of the final output, as long as the R&D firm has sufficient financial resources. Consistent with this framework, the allocation of control rights to the R&D firm increases with the firm's financial resources. The empirical evidence regarding the relationship between control rights and the stage of the project at the time the alliance is signed is more ambiguous.