The pricing of initial public offerings: tests of adverse-selection and signaling theories

We test the empirical implications of several models of IPOunderpricing. Consistent with the winner's-curse hypothesis,we show that in markets where investors know a priori that theydo not have to compete with informed investors, IPOs are notunderpriced. We also show that IPOs underwritten by reputableinvestment banks experience significantly less underpricingand perform significantly better in the long run. We do notfind empirical support for the signaling models that try toexplain why firms underprice. In fact, we find that (1) firmsthat underprice more return to the reissue market less frequently,and for lesser amounts, than firms that underprice less, and(2) firms that underprice less experience bigger earnings andpay higher dividends, contrary to the models' predictions.     

The assumptions of Jacob Viner's theory of customs unions

The paper starts by presenting a method for the decomposition of the impact of a customs union into the familiar trade-diversion, trade-creation and consumption effects. This is used as a framework within which Viner's original customs-union analysis is investigated. The issues examined are whether Viner's analysis indeed makes the assumptions about production and consumption which are attributed to it by conventional wisdom; whether the assumptions Viner did make were consistent; and the possible explanations of Viner's analytical course. The investigation is supported by references to Viner's analytic contributions beyond the sphere of customs unions.     

Do Price Discreteness and Transactions Costs Affect Stock Returns? Comparing Ex‐Dividend Pricing before and after Decimalization

By the end of January 2001, all NYSE stocks had converted their price quotations from 1/8s and 1/16s to decimals. This study examines the effect of this change in price quotations on ex‐dividend day activity. We find that abnormal ex‐dividend day returns increase in the 1/16 and decimal pricing eras, relative to the 1/8 era, which is inconsistent with microstructure explanations of ex‐day price movements. We also find that abnormal returns increase in conjunction with a May 1997 reduction in the capital gains tax rate, as they should if relative taxation of dividends and capital gains affects ex‐day pricing.     

Conflict of interest and the credibility of underwriter analyst recommendations

Brokerage analysts frequently comment on and sometimes recommendcompanies that their firms have recently taken public. We showthat stocks that underwriter analysts recommend perform morepoorly than 'buy' recommendations by unaffiliated brokers priorto, at the time of, and subsequent to the recommendation date.We conclude that the recommendations by underwriter analystsshow significant evidence of bias. We show also that the marketdoes not recognize the full extent of this bias. The resultssuggest a potential conflict of interest inherent in the differentfunctions that investment bankers perform.     

Managerial Response to the May 2003 Dividend Tax Cut

We survey 328 financial executives to determine the effects of the May 2003 dividend tax cut. We find that the tax cut led to initiations and dividend increases at some firms. However, executives say that among the factors that affect dividend policy, the tax rate reduction is less important than the stability of future cash flows, cash holdings, and the historic level of dividends. Tax effects have roughly the same importance as attracting institutional investors and the availability of profitable investments. We also find that press releases only occasionally mention the dividend tax cut as the reason for an initiation.     

Signaling safety

Contrary to signaling models’ central predictions, changes in the level of cash flows do not empirically follow changes in dividends. We use the Campbell (1991) decomposition to construct cash-flow and discount-rate news from returns and find the following: (1) both dividend changes and repurchase announcements signal changes in cash-flow volatility (in opposite directions); (2) larger cash-flow volatility changes come with larger announcement returns; and (3) neither discount-rate news, nor the level of cash-flow news, nor total stock return volatility change following dividend changes. We conclude cash-flow news—and not discount-rate news—drive payout policy, and payout policy conveys information about future cash-flow volatility.     

Caveat Compounder: A Warning about Using the Daily CRSP Equal-Weighted Index to Compute Long-Run Excess Returns

This paper issues a warning that compounding daily returns of the Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP) equal-weighted index can lead to surprisingly large biases. The differences between the monthly returns compounded from the daily tapes and the monthly CRSP equal-weighted indices is almost 0.43 percent per month, or 6 percent per year. This difference amounts to one-third of the average monthly return, and is large enough to reverse the conclusions of a paper using the daily tape to compute the return on the benchmark portfolio. We also investigate the sources of these biases and suggest several alternative strategies to avoid them.     

Using Expectations to Test Asset Pricing Models

Asset pricing models generate predictions relating assets' expected rates of return and their risk attributes. Most tests of these models have employed realized rates of return as a proxy for expected return. We use analysts' expected rates of return to examine the relation between these expectations and firm attributes. By assuming that analysts' expectations are unbiased estimates of market-wide expected rates of return, we can circumvent the use of realized rates of return and provide evidence on the predictions emanating from traditional asset pricing models. We find a positive, robust relation between expected return and market beta and a negative relation between expected return and firm size, consistent with the notion that these are risk factors. We do not find that high book-to-market firms are expected to earn higher returns than low book-to-market firms, inconsistent with the notion that book-to-market is a risk factor.     

Dynamic Volume-Return Relation of Individual Stocks

We examine the dynamic relation between return and volume ofindividual stocks. Using a simple model in which investors tradeto share risk or speculate on private information, we show thatreturns generated by risk-sharing trades tend to reverse themselves,while returns generated by speculative trades tend to continuethemselves. We test this theoretical prediction by analyzingthe relation between daily volume and first-order return autocorrelationfor individual stocks listed on the NYSE and AMEX. We find thatthe cross-sectional variation in the relation between volumeand return autocorrelation is related to the extent of informedtrading in a manner consistent with the theoretical prediction.