Forecasting and random processes

On the simple model of a (univariate) random process some general problems of “random logic” are discussed. New random approaches to explorative, normative and systematic (normex) forecasting are developed, and some applications are suggested.     

Designing an optimal contest

The paper brings a mechanism design perspective to the study of contests. We consider the problem of selecting a contest success function when the contest designer may also value the prize. We show that any equilibrium outcome that can be achieved by a concave increasing contest success function can be replicated by a linear contest success function. An expected utility maximizing designer should employ a linear homogeneous contest success function. We explicitly derive the optimal contest for a risk-neutral designer and present comparative statics results. Tullock's contest is optimal only when the designer's valuation for the prize is low.     

Tales of Motives in Bank M&As in Emerging Markets

For the past 12 years volatile waves of M&As and divestments in the banking sector were generated by numerous, but often similar motives. This article analyses the motives behind bank M&As regarding the acquirer's and the target's reasons and their perceived criteria of success or failure. The study has identified soft “irrational” factors such as bargain deals or excess cash, behind several economic motives such as synergies, survival, market penetration, or following the customer. Overall, the motives proved to be interconnected, allowing traceable further bank consolidation, especially during financial crisis, at the intercountry level. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Consumer consumption intentions of smaller packaged snack variants

Smaller snack package variants are ubiquitous in the food marketplace. Although it is assumed that consumers intend to consume less because snacks are placed into smaller packages, consumer intentions are never measured. This research examines dietary‐restrained consumers' consumption intentions of smaller snack package variants found in the marketplace described by snack type (i.e. less healthy, more healthy – as per Guiding Stars® food labelling system) and front‐of‐package calorie labelling (99 calories, 100 calories). We conducted an online experiment wherein 203 participants were exposed to the aforementioned snack package variants and their consumption intentions were subsequently measured. A regression analysis revealed that consumers who are highly dietary restrained intend to consume more when (a) the snack is relatively healthier and (b) it includes 99‐calorie front‐of‐package labelling. We discuss the idea that dietary‐restrained consumers are not likely to view smaller packaged snacks as portion control devices, but rather, as a means to eat more of a healthier food.     

Tracking the U.S. health sector: the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic

Business Economics - Health spending has grown faster than the U.S. economy for decades and currently represents approximately 18% of gross domestic product. As with other sectors of the economy,...     

The impact of prudential toolkits on loan growth in Central and Eastern European banking systems

This paper examines the effects of prudential policy on loan growth in 11 Central and Eastern European banking systems, spanning the period from 2000 to 2015. Based on the measures taken by the authorities of our sample countries, we build several prudential indices. Additionally, we control for the effects of several country-specific factors and bank-specific characteristics. Finally, we test the homogeneity of these effects, accounting for cycle, ownership, and bank effects. Generally, the empirical findings reveal a negative correlation between prudential toolkits and credit growth, with a conspicuous impact for tools targeting lending activity. We see that the effects of a change in the lending framework on loan growth are heterogeneous when we account for crisis and cycle patterns. Furthermore, the interaction between ownership and crisis reveals that, in normal times, foreign banks recorded higher loan growth compared to domestic banks. The opposite is true in turbulent times. The analysis of interactions between credit-based measures and bank-specific variables show that the effects of prudential actions depend on the bank size and leverage.     

Innovation and Price Informativeness

We study whether the innovation decisions of a firm are improved as a result of information reflected in the firm's stock price. We show that firms with more informative stock prices, as measured by price nonsynchronicity, have better innovation outcomes, as measured by the number of patents and patent citations. Our results are not driven by managerial private information and are robust to various alternative specifications. We also find that price informativeness is more important to innovation when managers are less experienced or face greater uncertainty about the optimal innovation strategy, and that these effects are primarily observed in small‐ and mid‐sized firms where additional information may be of greater value. Our results are consistent with the notion that capital markets can have real effects on the economy.     

Updated trends in US brand-name and generic drug competition

Objective: To provide updated evidence on US trends in: market exclusivity periods (MEPs, time between brand-name drug launch and first generic competitors) for new molecular entities (NMEs); likelihood, timing and number of Hatch-Waxman Act Paragraph IV patent challenges; and generic drug penetration.

Methods: This study used IMS Health National Sales Perspectives^TM US data to calculate MEPs for the 288 NMEs experiencing initial generic entry between January 1995 and December 2014, the number of generic competitors for 12 months afterward (by level of annual sales prior to generic entry), and generic penetration rates. The likelihood, timing and number of Paragraph IV challengers were calculated using data from Abbreviated New Drug Approval (ANDA) letters, the FDA website, public information searches, and ParagraphFour.com.

Results: For drugs experiencing initial generic entry in 2013–2014, the MEP was 12.5 years for drugs with sales greater than $250 million (in 2008 dollars) in the year prior to generic entry ($250 million?+?NMEs), 13.6 years overall. After generic entry, brands rapidly lost sales, with their average unit share being 7% at 1 year for $250 million?+?NMEs, 12% overall. Ninety-four percent of $250 million?+?NMEs experiencing initial generic entry in 2013–2014 had faced at least one Paragraph IV challenge, an average of 5.2 years after brand launch (76% and 5.9 years for all NMEs). NMEs faced an average of 5.1 and 6.2 Paragraph IV challenges per NME, for all and $250 million?+?NMEs, respectively.

Limitations: Analyses, including Paragraph IV calculations, were restricted to NMEs where generic entry had occurred.

Conclusion: The average 2013–2014 MEP of 12.5 years for $250 million?+?NMEs, 13.6 overall remains consistent with prior research. MEPs are lower, and Paragraph IV challenges are more frequent and occur earlier for $250 million?+?drugs. Generic share erosion is also greater, and continues to intensify for both NME types.     

A Note on Capital IQ's Credit Line Data

Empirical work in finance is increasingly using Capital IQ's detailed data on capital structure. We compare the Capital IQ credit line data to hand‐collected data for a random sample of firms. Missing values in Capital IQ are prevalent, so the data set underreports the importance of corporate credit lines. When data are reported, Capital IQ often differs from hand‐collected credit line activity. We suggest methods for correcting the errors in the Capital IQ data, note which portions of the data are most reliable, and quantify the effects of Capital IQ's underreporting by examining the tradeoff between cash and lines of credit.     

To What Extent do United Kingdom Companies Provide Oil and Gas Reserves Information Sufficient to Satisfy Statement of Recommended Practice Requirements?

The uncertainty surrounding oil and gas reserves estimation and the cost of gathering reserves data discourage firms from disclosing sufficient data to satisfy SORP (statement of recommended practice) requirements, especially where oil and gas reserves disclosure is discretionary. However, the need to reduce agency cost and signal to stakeholders induces firms to disclose oil and gas reserves. The contrasting views on the rationale guiding the extent of disclosure were examined in this study. A sample was drawn from 83 United Kingdom (UK) oil and gas exploration and production companies listed on the London Stock Exchange. Appropriate statistical tools were used to investigate the extent of oil and gas reserves disclosure. The findings provide mixed results about the extent of disclosure to meet SORP's requirements. There was no particular evidence that UK oil and gas companies provide qualitatively acceptable oil and gas reserves quantity information. The observed varying degrees of disclosure in the market could be attributed to a discretionary regime that allows firms to determine how and when to disclose. Policy makers and industry regulators could find the results useful in assessing the current extent of disclosure compliance.