Equilibrium Underdiversification and the Preference for Skewness

We develop a one-period model of investor asset holdings whereinvestors have heterogeneous preference for skewness. Introducingheterogeneous preference for skewness allows the model's investors,in equilibrium, to underdiversify. We find support for our model'sthree key implications using a dataset of 60,000 individualinvestor accounts. First, we document that the portfolio returnsof underdiversified investors are substantially more positivelyskewed than those of diversified investors. Second, we showthat the apparent mean-variance inefficiency of underdiversifiedinvestors can be largely explained by the fact that investorssacrifice mean-variance efficiency for higher skewness exposure.Furthermore, we show that idiosyncratic skewness, and not justcoskewness, can impact equilibrium prices. Third, the underdiversificationof investors does not appear to be coincidentally related toskewness. Stocks most often selected by underdiversified investorshave substantially higher average skewness—especiallyidiosyncratic skewness—than stocks most often selectedby diversified investors.     

A social forecast revisited

In 1971, the authors produced a 30-year forecast of leisure in the UK. In 2001 they obtained survey data for comparison with the forecasts. The paper presents the original forecasts and describes the methods used to produce them, assesses their accuracy in the light of the survey data, and concludes with some reflections on the underlying forecasting methodology and on changes in leisure patterns.     

Institutions and concentration

In a new dataset of 1.3 million firms from over 100 countries, I establish a number of regularities in cross-country differences in economic concentration. Concentration of sales and employment is substantially higher in smaller countries and in less-developed countries; these two factors alone explain roughly half the cross-country variation in concentration. Nevertheless, a number of institutional factors offer additional explanatory power for concentration. Concentration is higher in countries with higher entry costs for new firms, in countries with weaker antitrust policy, in countries with less financial development, in countries with weaker rule of law, and in countries with more burdensome regulation. Weak institutions are associated with higher concentration especially in industries that do not have naturally high levels of concentration. In addition, the relationships between institutions and concentration are more pronounced in nontradable and investment-intensive industries, suggesting that natural barriers to competition facilitate the monopolization of sectors especially when institutions are weak.     

Why Have Debt Ratios Increased for Firms in Emerging Markets?

I study trends in capital structure between 1980 and 2004 in a sample of over 11,000 firms from 34 emerging markets. The average firm's market‐value debt ratio rose by 15 percentage points over this quarter century. I study how this rise in leverage was influenced by firm‐level factors and by the availability of debt financing at the country level. The central finding is that the increase in debt ratios can largely be attributed to changes in the characteristics of emerging market firms over this period. For the average firm, the most prominent determinants of capital structure – size, profitability, asset tangibility, and growth opportunities – all shifted in the direction implying a higher optimal level of debt. At the country level, increased financial development within the country is associated with lower debt ratios, but increased financial openness to foreign markets is associated with higher debt ratios.     

21世纪新策略——外国市长的新思维

蒙克顿这个座落在珀蒂克的克河湾的早期阿卡迪亚人的聚居地,如今已成长为一个繁华的大都市.1755年阿卡迪亚人被驱逐出境,从此,这个地区就杳无人烟.直到1766年,8家人从宾夕法尼亚州移居到这里.这个城市得名于一个英国士兵的名字,罗伯特·蒙克顿上校.1855年蒙克顿已组建成为一个城市,但在1862年被迫交出宪章.其后,随着蒸汽铁船的诞生,当地的繁荣也随之结束(注:当时当地长于造木船).1877年,"跨殖民地铁路"也就是"加拿大国家铁路"的前身将总部建立在这里,蒙克顿新的繁荣时代也随之到来.1875年蒙克顿市再一次重新组建,当时的标语是"Resurgo'(拉丁语意为重新崛起).1890年4月23日,蒙克顿市正式建立.     

The dimensions of leadership style

Few people ever appraise their personal qualities and behavior patterns. Nor do they stop to examine the challenges and requirements of the broad array of managerial possibilities open to them. This means that managers seldom match their ambitions and abilities. The discipline this paper offers toward recognizing your leadership profile is the important first step to intelligent career-planning.     

Propping and tunneling

In countries with weak legal systems, there is a great deal of tunneling by the entrepreneurs who control publicly traded firms. However, under some conditions entrepreneurs prop up their firms, i.e., they use their private funds to benefit minority shareholders. We provide evidence and a model that explains propping. In particular, we suggest that issuing debt can credibly commit an entrepreneur to propping, even though creditors can never take possession of any underlying collateral. This helps to explain why emerging markets with weak institutions sometimes grow rapidly and why they are also subject to frequent economic and financial crises. Journal of Comparative Economics 31 (4) (2003) 732–750.     

Investability and Firm Value

We study how investability, or openness to foreign equity investors, affects firm value in a sample of over 1,400 firms from 26 emerging markets. We find that, on average, investability is associated with a 9% valuation premium (as measured by Tobin's q). This significant valuation premium persists in firm‐fixed effects regressions, although the magnitude and robustness of the premium is somewhat lower. Analysis of the components of Tobin's q shows that firms that become investable experience significant increases in both market values and physical investment. These effects are strongest for firms that face country‐level or firm‐level financial constraints prior to becoming investable.     

Stock market liberalization and operating performance at the firm level

I use firm-specific measures of openness to foreign investors to study the impact of stock market liberalization on firm-level operating performance. In a sample of over 1,100 firms from 28 countries, firms with stocks that are open to foreign investors experience higher growth, greater investment, greater profitability, greater efficiency, and lower leverage. Strategies to address potential endogeneity suggest that the observed relation reflects, at least in part, a causal effect of openness on operating performance.