Targeted saving by renters for housing purchase in Japan

This paper examines the extent to which wealth accumulation for housing purchase increases household savings and suppresses consumption. The study employs an estimation method based on simultaneous equations with limited dependent variables developed by Nelson and Olson to examine the relationship between wealth accumulation and housing purchase plans, using data relating to young Japanese renters. The estimation results provide evidence that young Japanese households severely reduce their consumption by around 30–40 percent.     

Housing Finance Arrangements,Wealth Positioning and Housing Consumption in Japan: An Analysis of Built-for-sale Homeowners

Home purchase is financed through equity and debt. Housing finance arrangements require initial downpayments and impose monthly repayments. Similar to many countries, Japanese households accumulate savings out of their current income and receive private transfers from parents or relatives. From the survey conducted by the Ministry of Land, Transportation and Infrastructure from 1992 to 2000, the paper analyses the time spell until built-for sale homebuyers have amassed sufficient equity to meet the downpayment requirement. For the first-time buyers, private aid in form of cash was the dominant component of equity besides own savings. The innovative feature of our paper is to categorize the households into four classes of positive versus negative excess savings and positive versus negative excess “luck” as other equity sources including private transfers get termed here. For each category we estimate the duration of the accumulation process, and perform a sensitivity analysis that compares the spells under varying amounts of GHLC-loans with other types of mortgages. Since GHLC-loans are means-tested, they can effectively counteract the regressive effects arising from income; but as we will show they cannot really speed up the access in favour of the poorer strata. This finding sheds light on a growing wealth disparity that causes self-selection in ownership access.     

Current Wealth,Housing Purchase,and Private Housing Loan Demand in Japan

Japanese households accumulate wealth for down payments at a high rate. Therefore, current wealth plays an important role in home acquisition as well as public loans whose direct mortgage lending is a strong support for home purchasers. We estimate the wealth effect on private mortgage debt as well as housing consumption by applying a model where mortgage-debt demand is derived from house-purchase decisions and is determined jointly with housing consumption. We use a simultaneous equation Tobit estimation method. Wealth effects on private mortgage debt, likelihood of borrowing, and housing consumption are not elastic. On the other hand, a change in housing consumption affects the likelihood of borrowing elastically much more than the private mortgage amount of borrowers. Housing and private mortgage markets fluctuate very closely with the number of participants in the mortgage market. Therefore, the number of housing starts is linked strongly to the private mortgage market.