Foreign inflows and economic growth: An emiprical study of the SAARC region

The study examines and highlights the impact of selected foreign inflows (aid, trade, FDI, debt and remittances) on the economic growth of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries. The existent literature lacks a comprehensive analysis of the SAARC countries as countries like Afghanistan, Bhutan and the Maldives have largely been ignored due to the shorter time periods of available data. The study is empirical in nature and utilizes panel data techniques on macroeconomic data for the period 2008–2015. Foreign aid and foreign direct investment are found to impact economic growth positively. Foreign debt and trade flows are found to adversely affect economic growth. No relationship is established between the flow of remittances and the economic growth of these countries. The obtained results are robust to different proxy variables and the addition of macroeconomic variables. For the first time, the study provides policy implications based on the data of all SAARC countries. The study recommends focusing on increasing the inflows of resources in the form of aid and foreign direct investment (FDI) from the developed world to achieve higher economic growth.     

Estimation methods for stochastic volatility models: a survey

Abstract.  Although stochastic volatility (SV) models have an intuitive appeal, their empirical application has been limited mainly due to difficulties involved in their estimation. The main problem is that the likelihood function is hard to evaluate. However, recently, several new estimation methods have been introduced and the literature on SV models has grown substantially. In this article, we review this literature. We describe the main estimators of the parameters and the underlying volatilities focusing on their advantages and limitations both from the theoretical and empirical point of view. We complete the survey with an application of the most important procedures to the S&P 500 stock price index.     

The Adjusted Big Mac Methodology: A Clarification

The Economist's adjusted Big Mac index takes GDP into account in currency valuation, but the methodology is not explained. We show that the key to understanding the methodology is to distinguish between a currency's bilateral valuation (versus a specific currency) and the currency's overall valuation (versus a “basket” of a large number of currencies). Also, the adjusted Big Mac estimates of intrinsic foreign exchange (FX) rates have been better forecasts of actual FX changes than those of the original “raw” Big Mac index.     

Prediction regions for interval-valued time series

We approximate probabilistic forecasts for interval-valued time series by offering alternative approaches. After fitting a possibly non-Gaussian bivariate vector autoregression (VAR) model to the center/log-range system, we transform prediction regions (analytical and bootstrap) for this system into regions for center/range and upper/lower bounds systems. Monte Carlo simulations show that bootstrap methods are preferred according to several new metrics. For daily S&P 500 low/high returns, we build joint conditional prediction regions of the return level and volatility. We illustrate the usefulness of obtaining bootstrap forecasts regions for low/high returns by developing a trading strategy and showing its profitability when compared to using point forecasts.     

Ranking Crop Yield Models: A Comment

This comment discusses key specification issues that may have affected the performance and, therefore, the ranking of parametric models that were compared in a recent AJAE article. A procedure to obtain the most flexible parametric model specification possible, given the particular probability distribution function on which the model is based is presented. These specifications also allow for standardized and, therefore, more valid comparisons across parametric models that are based on different probability distributions. Finally, the comment cautions against generalization of the rankings in that AJAE article and recommends that these more flexible specifications be adopted in future comparisons and applications.     

Measuring scale effects in the allocative profit efficiency

This paper provides an approach to the measurement of the “scale effects” in the allocative profit efficiency. To be specific, we evaluate the improvements of profit that can be accomplished by means of a change in the scale size, once technical efficiency is achieved. New decompositions of the allocative efficiency into a scale effect component and the corresponding residual mix effect component are derived.     

Entry and Managerial Incentives: A Note

This note reinforces the results in a paper by Sen (International Journal of Industrial Organization, vol. 11, 1993, pp. 123–37). It is shown that his assumption that the incentive schemes in a two‐period model are the same for the two periods is not necessary for the results: only the long‐term nature of contracts with managers matters.