Intertemporal consumption choices,transaction costs and limited participation in financial markets: reconciling data and theory

This paper builds a unifying framework based on the theory of intertemporal consumption choices that brings together the limited participation‐based explanation of the Consumption Capital Asset Pricing Model's poor empirical performance and the transaction costs‐based explanation of incomplete portfolios. Using the implications of the consumption model and observed household consumption and portfolio choices, we identify the preference parameters of interest and a lower bound for the costs rationalizing non‐participation in financial markets. Using the US Consumer Expenditure Survey and assuming isoelastic preferences, we estimate the coefficient of relative risk aversion at 1.7 and a cost bound of 0.4% of non‐durable consumption. Our estimate of the preference parameter is theoretically plausible and the bound sufficiently small to be likely to be exceeded by the actual total (observable and unobservable) costs of participating in financial markets. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Heterogeneity in Financial Market Participation: Appraising its Implications for the C-CAPM

This paper presents empirical evidence that accounting for heterogeneity in financial market participation is important for evaluating the empirical performance of the Consumption-based Capital Asset Pricing Model (C-CAPM). Using the US Consumer Expenditure Survey as a common testing ground, I re-assess three well-known characterizations of the equity premium puzzle (i) the inconsistency of the representative agent's IMRS with Hansen and Jagannathan bounds; (ii) Mehra and Prescott's calibration of a large representative agent's risk aversion; (iii) Hansen and the Singleton's large structural estimates of the preference parameters based on aggregate data. In all three cases, the estimates of risk aversion conditional upon financial market participation are not as far from reasonable values as the corresponding unconditional ones. The differences suggest that part of the equity premium puzzle can be accounted for by the use of a representative agent assumption rather than a more appropriate "representative stockholding agent assumption.     

THE STOCK MARKET, HOUSING AND CONSUMER SPENDING: A SURVEY OF THE EVIDENCE ON WEALTH EFFECTS

Abstract.  This paper examines the time-series and micro-econometric evidence on the relationship between stock and house prices and consumer spending. The time-series studies distinguish between short-run and long-run links between consumption, income and wealth. They allow us to identify which variables adjust to restore the long-run equilibrium in the case of a shock, and to determine the time taken by the adjustment process. The micro-econometric literature improves our understanding of the link between wealth and expenditure and distinguishes among the alternative hypotheses – of direct wealth effect, common causality and collateral channel – that have been proposed to explain this relationship. The relationship between wealth and consumer spending appears to be strong, but there is some disagreement as to its size and nature. Furthermore, there appear to be some important differences across countries, which should be allowed for by policy makers when appraising the policy implications of a change in asset prices.     

The Forgone Gains of Incomplete Portfolios

This article proposes a test for the cost-based explanationof nonparticipation, by estimating a lower bound to the forgonegains of incomplete portfolios; these are in turn a lower boundto the costs that could rationalize nonparticipation in financialmarkets: high bounds would imply implausibly high costs. Assumingisoelastic utility and a relative risk aversion of three orless, for the stock market I estimate an average lower boundof between 0.7 and 3.3 percent of consumption. Since total annual(observable plus unobservable) participation costs are likelyto exceed these bounds, the cost-based explanation is not rejectedby this test.