The methodology combination of a national foresight process in Germany

In September 2007, the Federal German Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF) launched a new foresight process which aimed at four specific targets. To achieve them, a tailor-made combination of methods was applied. This paper focuses on the concept design of the process and explains one of the methods — the future online survey — in more detail.The German Foresight Process of the BMBF delivers results on different levels: broader future fields as well as single future topics. Both kinds are relevant and selected according to a set of criteria. Some of the results of this foresight process will be directly integrated into national policy activities, others are just more indirectly filtered into the innovation system of the specific sectors in the country. The future fields are all cross-cutting issues based on science and technology. All of them are specifically knowledge dynamic fields.     

A methodology for determining public investment criteria

Cost-benefit analysis is a popular method of evaluating both public and private investments. This paper explores the theoretical basis of cost-benefit analysis, the methodology of its application and the policy ramifications arising from its application in terms of public investments. The discussion presented in this paper is relevant to public investments undertaken at all levels of government. A main conclusion of this paper is that the social conscience of the planner or decision-maker and his knowledge of the benefits and shortcomings of cost-benefit analysis are key factors in successfully implementing public investments.     

Tailoring Foresight to field specificities

The paper presents an approach at improving the impact of Foresight by systematically taking into account the characteristics of the targeted research and innovation (R&I) domains when designing a Foresight exercise. The paper addresses recent developments in Foresight theory and practice which allow for deploying a hybrid methodological framework where different approaches serve different purposes in specific phases in order to tailor Foresight to a wide range of different contexts and objectives. The paper can be characterised as empirically based theory building. The theoretical framework is elaborated by applying it in two R&I fields: (i) GM plants and (ii) Nanosciences and Nanotechnologies. Hence, this research is expected to contribute improving the strategic processes of priority setting in techno-institutional arenas both on the national and international level. In particular it is suggested that the capability of Foresight to function as a systemic innovation policy instrument for enhancing innovation and learning capability could be improved substantially by tailoring the Foresight approach to the targeted innovation arena.