Covered Interest Parity and Speculative Efficiency: Some Empirical Evidence for Australia*

Two key relationships which feature prominently through out modern international monetary theory are: (i) covered interest parity and(ii) speculative efficiency of the foreign exchange market, i.e., the unbiasedness of the forward rate as a predictor of the spot rate. This paper presents some empirical evidence for these two hypotheses using Australian data over the period September 1974 to December 1981 during which the Australian dollar was essentially floating. Both quarterly and overlapping monthly data are used. The results obtained generally provide some support for the two hypotheses.     

WHAT IT TAKES TO SOLVE THE U.S. GOVERNMENT DEFICIT PROBLEM

This paper uses a structural multi‐country macroeconometric model to estimate the size of the decrease in transfer payments (or tax expenditures) needed to stabilize the U.S. government debt/gross domestic product (GDP) ratio. It takes into account endogenous effects of changes in fiscal policy on the economy and in turn the effect of changes in the economy on the deficit. A base run is first obtained for the 2013:1–2022:4 period in which there are no major changes in U.S. fiscal policy. This results in an ever increasing debt/GDP ratio. Then transfer payments are decreased by an amount sufficient to stabilize the long‐run debt/GDP ratio. The results show that transfer payments need to be decreased by 2% of GDP from the base run, which over the 10 years is $3.2 trillion in 2005 dollars and $4.8 trillion in current dollars. The real output loss is 1.1% of baseline GDP. Monetary policy helps keep the loss down, but it is not powerful enough in the model to eliminate all of the loss. The estimates are robust to a base run with less inflation and to one with less expansion. (JEL E17)     

Manufacturing Industry and the Balance of Payments Adjustment: The United Kingdom Case

The thesis of this essay is that it is unlikely that economic growth in the UK during the rest of the 1990s will be balance-of-payments constrained in any significant sense. Our conclusion is that manufacturing industry does not and will not play a unique role in Britain's economic future. These propositions are not to be confused with two distinct and related ones. The first is that the fact that the balance of payments need not be seen as a constraint does not rule out the possibility of other problems associated with the balance of payments such as we have seen in the recent past. Secondly, the fact that manufacturing industry is not in any sense a unique part of economic activity in no way lessens its importance as a major and significant sector. This paper is in no sense a critique of manufacturing industry.     

THE IMPACT OF INTRA HOUSEHOLD BALANCE OF POWER ON EXPENDITURE PATTERN: THE AUSTRALIAN EVIDENCE*

The collective approach to household behaviour models the household utility function as the weighted average of the utilities of the individual members of the household. These weights, which measure the relative bargaining power of males and females within the household, are generally regarded as fixed and exogenous. The paper extends the collective approach and estimates a model where the weights are endogenously determined. The novelty of the analysis lies in the simultaneous equations estimation of the bargaining power and the budget share equation that allow for the endogeneity of the power variable in the examination of its impact on the budget share of the various items. The estimation is conducted using data from the 1998–99 Australian Household Expenditure Survey data set. The relative bargaining power of males and females have statistically significant effects on household expenditure patterns. The analysis reveals some interesting non‐monotonic relationships between relative power and budget shares that vary a great deal between commodities.     

Connecting Time and Space: The Significance of Transformations in Women's Work in the City

Growing numbers of women with children living in western cities are entering the labour market, raising new questions about changes in the allocation of the tasks of social reproduction between household members and others and about the effects of the increasing time women now spend in the workplace. As Manuel Castells noted over 25 years ago, women's unpaid labour has long been essential, not only in the domestic arena, but also in patching together facilities separated in space. The spatial layout of cities, with its specialized and segregated land‐uses, only works, he argued, if women's unpaid labour is available to connect urban locations. But many women now spend many more hours in the labour market, replacing their former domestic labour with a range of commodified goods and services as well as by help from a range of related or unrelated others, sometimes but not always remunerated and/or by state‐provided or supported services. This article examines the consequences of the growth of women's employment in Britain and the concomitant decline of the old breadwinner family, the growth of workfare policies that assume all individuals are available for waged work and the rise of commodified caring. The arguments are illustrated by empirical examples from interviews undertaken with middle‐class mothers in waged work in London and Manchester in the UK.