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1.
Behavioral conformity in games with many players 总被引:3,自引:1,他引:2
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Gottfried Haber Reinhard Neck Warwick J. McKibbin 《International Advances in Economic Research》2006,12(1):1-15
In this paper, we analyze the reactions of European economies to a fiscal policy strategy aiming at diminishing the public sector. Within the framework of the MSG3 model, a macroeconomic model of the world economy, we perform several simulation experiments to explore the effects of reducing government expenditures permanently in different phases of the business cycle. For this purpose, we combine the fiscal contraction with negative and positive, Euro Area-wide and global, supply and demand shocks. It turns out that adverse Keynesian effects on output and employment tend to be mostly weak and short-lived, whereas long-run effects on output and employment are favorable. Due to these long-run effects, the fiscal contraction policy raises welfare as measured by an asymmetric quadratic objective function. The size of these welfare effects depends on the initial situation in a non-trivial manner. 相似文献
4.
Ass. Dr. Reinhard Neck 《Journal of Economics》1976,36(1-2):121-151
Ohne ZusammenfassungFür Anregungen und Unterstützung danke ich besonders den Herren Professoren Abele (Universität Freiburg/Schweiz), Tintner (TU Wien), Aoki (Universität Urbana/Illinois, USA) und Ferschl (Universität Wien); für allenfalls verbleibende Irrtümer bleibe ich selbst verantwortlich. 相似文献
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We quantify the reaction of U.S. equity, bond futures, and exchange rate returns to oil price shocks driven by oil inventory news. Across most sectors, equity prices decrease in response to higher oil prices before the 2007/2008 crisis but increase after it. Positive oil price shocks cause a depreciation of the U.S. dollar against a broad range of currencies but have only a modest effect on bond futures returns. The evidence suggests that changes in risk premia help to explain the time-varying effect of oil price shocks on U.S. equity returns. 相似文献
8.
We develop a dynamic game model of a two-country monetary union to study strategic interactions between macroeconomic policy
makers, namely the central bank and governments. In this union, the governments of participating countries pursue national
goals when deciding on fiscal policies, whereas the common central bank’s monetary policy aims at union-wide objective variables.
The union considered is asymmetric, consisting of a core, with lower initial public debt, and a periphery, with higher initial
public debt. For a symmetric demand shock, we derive numerical solutions of the dynamic game between the governments and the
central bank using the OPTGAME algorithm. We show that mildly active cooperative countercyclical policies dominate noncooperative
solutions and a scenario of no policy intervention. Optimal policies call for a brief expansionary action to bolster the effects
on output and a return to a small fiscal primary surplus as soon as the crisis is over until the targeted level of public
debt is reached. 相似文献
9.
In this paper, we study different and, in particular, “optimal” reactions of fiscal (and to some extent monetary) policies
to the financial and economic crisis of 2007–2009 in Slovenia, a small open economy that is part of the Economic and Monetary
Union (EMU). Using an econometric model of the Slovenian economy, we simulate the effects of the global crisis under the assumption
of no-policy reactions, i.e. assuming that macroeconomic policies are conducted without attempting to deal with the effects
of the crisis. Next, we study the possibilities of fiscal policy reducing or even annihilating the effects of the crisis.
We also investigate the optimal reaction of fiscal policies based on the assumption that Slovenian policy-makers behave as
though they were optimizing an objective function. We show that optimal policies call for only a very modestly active countercyclical
role of fiscal policies. There are strong trade-offs between countercyclical fiscal policies and the requirements of fiscal
solvency. 相似文献
10.
Based on new administrative data for Germany covering entrances into job creation schemes between July 2000 and May 2001, we evaluate the effects of this active labour market policy programme considering the timing of treatment in the individual unemployment spell. Applying propensity score matching in a dynamic setting where the time until treatment in the unemployment spell is stratified into quarters, regional (East and West Germany) as well as gender differences are considered in the estimation. The results in terms of employment present a heterogeneous, but disappointing picture. For West Germany, most of the estimates are insignificant at the end of the observation period, and only one positive exception could be established. In East Germany, none of the groups experiences an improvement of the labour market situation, but the employment chances tend to be reduced due to participation even 30 months after start of programmes. 相似文献