WHY SOCIETY NEEDS "IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE"—AND WHAT THIS MEANS FOR VALUATIONS AND MONETARY POLICY

Despite all the talk of a New Economy and the revolutionary import of the Internet, this article suggests that there is nothing really new under the sun. When Christopher Columbus was building the ships for his expeditions to the East Indies, only the vaguest estimates could be made of their potential value. At this stage, nobody knew if Columbus would be able to manage the crossing, when the ships would return, and what cargo they would eventually carry. In this sense, Columbus's venture bears a striking resemblance to many of today's Internet stocks. This paper raises and attempts to answer a number of interesting questions. For example, how do risky ventures with very high fixed (startup) costs but very low expected variable costs raise the capital necessary to fund the fixed costs? What role should government (and, in particular, monetary) policy play in encouraging (or discouraging) funding for such ventures? And how does one establish the value of such ventures when there is little or no revenue and, in some cases, no clearly defined product? The answer to the first question is investor enthusiasm–or, in Alan Greenspan's terms, “irrational exuberance.” Irrational exuberance plays a very important economic role in giving entrepreneurs access to the cheap financing necessary to fund ventures with heavy startup costs. Indeed, “irrational exuberance” may be the best solution for financing large fixed costs, not only because it is a private (as opposed to a government‐financed) solution, but because it gives investors direct access to the risks and rewards of promising investment opportunities. Before the recent “democratization” of capital markets, such ventures would have been funded by large corporations if not government agencies. As for the third question, this paper suggests there is only one useful way to estimate the value of ventures without revenues or products. The author provides a back‐of‐the‐envelope, “Fermitype” valuation method that is based on the principle of “human capital arbitrage.” For those Internet startups that lure top executives away from established firms with large grants of stock options but relatively low salaries, there is a “breakeven level” for the future stock price that can be calculated using a fairly modest amount of information about the executive's past and current compensation plans. For outside investors, such movements of human capital provide what is perhaps the most reliable basis for estimating the value of the firm.     

Sterilization, Monetary Policy, and Global Financial Integration

This paper investigates the changing pattern and efficacy of sterilization within emerging market countries as they liberalize markets and integrate with the world economy. We estimate the marginal propensity to sterilize foreign asset accumulation associated with net balance of payments inflows, across countries, and over time. We find that the extent of sterilization of foreign reserve inflows has risen in recent years to varying degrees in Asia as well as in Latin America, consistent with greater concerns about the potential inflationary impact of reserve inflows. We also find that sterilization depends on the composition of balance of payments inflows.     

Injecting incentives into the solution of social problems: Social Policy Bonds

There seems little chance of achieving many social objectives, given that the ways in which they are being pursued fail to harness self-interest. A way forward is to create a new financial instrument - Social Policy Bonds - which would be auctioned by government. The bonds would be tradable and would be redeemed only when a specified social objective had been achieved.     

"Many a Long Day": HSBC and Its Note Issue in Republican China, 1912-1935

This article utilizes the local banknote circulation volumesof HSBC, the largest foreign bank in China, as a gauge withwhich to explore political stability and state-building duringthe Republican era (1912–1935). It will challenge theprevailing view that British banks faced little resistance inChina through the 1920s–1930s, and expose new archivalevidence on the perception of, and mobilization against, foreignbanks.     

Multiple‐criteria approach to ranking medical tourism destinations

The characteristics of the medical tourism industry are described. Multiple criteria are used to evaluate several popular medical tourism destinations. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is shown to be the appropriate methodology for evaluating and ranking medical tourism destinations because it can incorporate input from multiple decision makers as well as handle both tangible and intangible criteria. The ranking of medical tourism destinations will enable administrators at companies that specialize in arranging the logistics of obtaining medical care at foreign facilities to better advise patients regarding their choice of medical tourism destinations. This will result in patients who are more satisfied with their choice of a foreign medical facility. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

An Empirical Analysis of Analysts' Target Prices: Short-term Informativeness and Long-term Dynamics

Using a large database of analysts' target prices issued over the period 1997–1999, we examine short‐term market reactions to target price revisions and long‐term comovement of target and stock prices. We find a significant market reaction to the information contained in analysts' target prices, both unconditionally and conditional on contemporaneously issued stock recommendation and earnings forecast revisions. Using a cointegration approach, we analyze the long‐term behavior of market and target prices. We find that, on average, the one‐year‐ahead target price is 28 percent higher than the current market price.     

Financing a central research laboratory: A tool of R & D subsidy policy

Abstract . In this paper we discuss two major issues of financing a central research laboratory.
First, the decision faced by the firm or the division whether to invest in its own laboratory or to rent compatible central laboratory services. The second issue is the price that a central laboratory should charge for renting out its facilities.
Under the assumptions that a laboratory can serve a large number of users over a long period of time and thus diversify the risk of liquidation better than a single firm or division, we show that, under uncertainty, the rent for the central laboratory assets is less than the price that a firm is willing to pay for its usage. This surplus has interesting policy implications for the diversified firm that operates a central R & D laboratory for the use of its divisions and may wish to establish a transfer price system. Moreover, if the government finances a central laboratory to service industrial firms and it follows a policy of subsidizing industrial R & D, the surplus may be given to the user of the laboratory as a direct subsidy.