A Practical Framework for the Analysis of Social Security Reform

‘When I use a word’, Humpty Dumpty said in a rather scornful tone, ‘it means just what I choose it lo mean — neither more nor less’. (Through the Looking Glass, Ch. 6)     

The Impact of Bank Consolidation on Commercial Borrower Welfare

We estimate the impact of bank merger announcements on borrowers' stock prices for publicly traded Norwegian firms. Borrowers of target banks lose about 0.8% in equity value, while borrowers of acquiring banks earn positive abnormal returns, suggesting that borrower welfare is influenced by a strategic focus favoring acquiring borrowers. Bank mergers lead to higher relationship exit rates among borrowers of target banks. Larger merger‐induced increases in relationship termination rates are associated with less negative abnormal returns, suggesting that firms with low switching costs switch banks, while similar firms with high switching costs are locked into their current relationship.     

SUPPLEMENTAL NUTRITION ASSISTANCE PROGRAM PARTICIPATION AND HEALTH: EVIDENCE FROM LOW‐INCOME INDIVIDUALS IN TENNESSEE

We investigate the factors that contribute to participation in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP, formerly known as the Food Stamp Program) and the effects of such participation on self‐assessed health (SAH). Our estimation approach consists of an endogenous switching ordered probability model, using the copula approach, for a sample of current and former Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) recipients in Tennessee. Results indicate that sociodemographic characteristics play a role in SNAP participation. Interestingly, we find that participation in SNAP is inversely related to SAH. (JEL I12, I38, C31)     

IMPACT OF PRICING STRUCTURE SELECTIVITY ON URBAN WATER DEMAND

Interest in demand management policies has intensified as residential water demand has grown in the United States. Using data from the 1984 American Water Works Association (AWWA) survey, the study here provides an empirical analysis of the differences in price elasticities of demand across water pricing block structures and examines these structures' "conservation-orientedness." However, a potential sample selection bias exists. That is, in cities where people are more interested in conservation, utility managers may be more likely to select a rate structure that they believe is conservation-oriented–an increasing block structure, for example. Managers' selectivity bias may cause research results either to understate or to overstate a particular block structure's impact on water conservation. The analysis here corrects for this selectivity bias in estimating water demand and tests whether consumers respond to average prices or to marginal prices. Correcting for selectivity bias involves an explicit analysis of the factors that influence utility managers' selection of rate structures. Estimating water demand under increasing and decreasing block structures suggests that sample selection bias remains a problem worthy of further investigation.     

Optimal Fiscal Policy in a Multisector Model: The Price Consequences of Government Spending

This paper investigates optimal fiscal policy in a static multisector model. A Ramsey type planner chooses tax rates on each good type as well as spending levels on each good type subject to an exogenous total expenditure constraint. It is shown that, like taxes, government spending policy has price effects and that these price effects have significant implications for optimal policy. These price effects imply a U shape to the government's objective function and this U shape results in boundary values for the choice of the spending allocation. In particular, it is shown that the optimal allocation of government spending tends to be concentrated on one good rather than spread among many goods.     

The Dynamics of Incomes and Occupational Pensions after Retirement

This paper uses two waves of the UK Retirement Survey to look at how incomes change during retirement. We concentrate on men aged 65–69 and women aged 60–69 in 1988–89 and look at how their incomes change over the following five years. Overall, we find a considerable degree of stability in real incomes. We use the panel data to look at the incomes of widows before and after they are widowed and find that, for this group of relatively young widows, their low incomes are in large part determined by the fact that it tends to be the relatively poorer husbands who die among this age-group. Finally, we consider the most important component of private income — occupational pensions — separately. We find a strong relationship between pension level and the probability of indexation — pensions that start low are less likely than higher pensions to keep up with inflation. JEL classification: D31, H55     

DENG XIAOPING'S GREAT TRANSFORMATION

Editor's Note: The First Annual Arnold C. Harberger Distinguished Lecture, University of California, Los Angeles, November 17, I997     

Initial Public Offerings and Underwriter Reputation

This paper examined the returns earned by subscribing to initial public offerings of equity (IPOs). Rock (1986) suggests that IPO returns are required by uninformed investors as compensation for the risk of trading against superior information. We show that IPOs with more informed investor capital require higher returns. The marketing underwriter's reputation reveals the expected level of “informed” activity. Prestigious underwriters are associated with lower risk offerings. With less risk there is less incentive to acquire information and fewer informed investors. Consequently, prestigious underwriters are associated with IPOs that have lower returns.