Application of ANFIS to exchange rate forecasting

The need of exchange rate forecasting in order to preventing its disruptive movements has engrossed many policy-makers and economists for many years. The determinants of exchange rate have grown manifold making its behavior complex, nonlinear and volatile so that nonlinear models have better performance for its forecasting. In this study the accuracy of ANFIS as the nonlinear model and ARIMA as the linear models for forecasting 2, 4 and 8 days ahead of daily Iran Rial/∈ and Rial/US$ was compared. Using forecast evaluation criteria we found that nonlinear model outperforms linear model in all three horizons.     

Tailored versus Mass Produced: Portfolio Managers Concurrently Managing Separately Managed Accounts and Mutual Funds

Using a matched sample of separately managed accounts (SMAs) and mutual funds (MFs) with the same portfolio manager and investment style, we find that concurrently managed MFs consistently underperform their SMA counterparts and generate more negative return gaps. Fund characteristics and liquidity betas fail to fully explain the underperformance. An event‐study analysis finds that the weights placed into top (bottom)‐performing stocks increase for existing SMAs (MFs) and negative return gaps increase for the MFs after the onset of concurrent management. We find that higher compensation collected by SMA fund managers are associated with more unseen managerial actions which positively contribute to the SMA return gap. Our results suggest that when managers concurrently manage both SMAs and MFs, they favor SMA performance over their MF performance.     

Corporate Governance,Tax Avoidance,and Financial Constraints

We examine how corporate governance affects the relationship between corporate tax avoidance and financial constraints. Conditional on having poor governance, tax avoidance is associated with greater financial constraints and a greater likelihood of financial distress. In firms with strong governance, however, we find that tax avoidance does not have a negative impact on financial constraints. Our results suggest that tax avoidance is a less useful source of financing for constrained firms when they are plagued with potential agency problems and opaque information environments. Stronger governance mechanisms can help firms mitigate the negative consequences of tax avoidance.     

Alphabeticity Bias in 401(k) Investing

Structural factors that cause irrational investment in defined contribution savings plans are of great concern. Using a proprietary database of 401(k) plans we show that alphabeticity—the order that fund names appear when listed in alphabetical order—significantly biases participants’ investment allocation decisions. While we show a larger impact as the number of funds in the plan increases, this bias is strong even when relatively few funds are available in the plan menu. Importantly, our findings suggest that a more strategic ordering of funds could result in favorable outcomes for participants.     

Bank earnings management and analyst coverage: evidence from loan loss provisions

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - We investigate whether there are information transfers related to the narratives accompanying earnings announcements in the same way there are for...     

Menu simplification for portfolio selection under short-sales constraints

We introduce a risk-reduction-based procedure to identify a subset of funds with a resulting opportunity set that is at least as good as the original menu when short-sales are imposed. Relying on Wald tests for mean-variance spanning, we show that the better results for the subset can be explained by a higher concentration of covariance entries between its assets, ultimately leading to smaller Frobenius norms of the associated matrices. With data on US-defined contribution plans, where participants have limited financial literacy, tend to be overwhelmed and prefer to make decisions among fewer choices, we obtain a 75% average reduction.