Volatility behavior of exchange rate future contracts

The increasing globalization of economies and the concurrent increase in the risk of currency exposure has stimulated the development of new instruments to allow both investors and traders to hedge their currency risk. The expansion of these derivatives, however, has raised some concerns. This paper studies the determinants of the dynamics of exchange rate future contracts as a means to identify the sources of such concerns. By using a mean-exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (M-EGARCH) model for five different future contract lengths and six developed economies, it is found that an M-EGARCH(1,1) effectively describes the exchange rate futures' daily dynamic. Sign, size, and persistence effects on the volatility of future contracts are all significant, thus providing important information to both policy makers and market participants.     

The square-root law,uncertainty and international reserves under alternative regimes: Canadian experience, 1950–1976

A transactions-precautionary model of demand for international reserves is developed and tested against Canadian data. The results indicate that: (i) the demand for reserves is characterized by economies of scale with respect to the volume of transactions that are invariant to the exchange rate regime, but (ii) structural change took the form of a relatively larger responsiveness of reserves holdings under fixed rates to a measure of permanent variability in transactions.     

Foreign Direct Investment,Financial Development and Their Impact on the GDP Growth in Low-income Countries

ABSTRACT

This essay empirically studies the effects and causal links between foreign direct investment (FDI), financial development (FD) and economic growth. The sample consists of the main economies of low-income countries and the study covers the period 1990–2015. The results of the estimate show that, under certain specific economic conditions, FDI affects positively the level of long-term economic growth; it thus makes it possible to improve the economic situation of these countries. Using Johansen’s cointegration technique, the results find that FD; FDI and GDP growth are cointegrated, that shows the pursuit of the long-term equilibrium relationship between them. The error correction model confirms the existence of a double causal relationship between FDI and GDP growth, and between FD and FDI and between GDP growth and FD.     

Who Moves the Asia-Pacific Stock Markets—US or Japan? Empirical Evidence Based on the Theory of Cointegration

This study examines the recent debacle of the Asian-Pacific stock markets by utilizing the theory of cointegration to investigate which developing markets are moved by the markets of Japan and the United States. The empirical evidence suggests that some countries are dominated by the US, some are dominated by Japan, and the remaining countries are dominated by neither during the time period investigated. The appropriate error correction model is estimated and is used to perform out-of-sample forecasting.     

On non-linear tariff schedules

A non-linear tariff is one in which the total tariff paid by an individual is not proportional to the amount he imports. In this paper, we analyze optimal non-linear tariffs set by a welfare-maximizing government subject to a revenue constraint. The optimal schedule consists of a two-part tariff over an initial range of imports, and a continuous schedule for further imports that satisfies a modified Ramsey rule.     

On the Instability of Tunisian Money Demand: Some Empirical Issues with Structural Breaks

This paper focuses on the causes of instability of money demand in Tunisia between 1973 and 2013. It has been argued that the main explanatory factors of money demand are national income, monetary market rate and exchange rate. We tested Ambler and McKinnon hypothesis (1985), which assumes that instability is explained by the absence of the nominal exchange rate in the specification of money demand. We found that structural changes are explained by the dependence of the national economy to world shocks, the IMF’s structural adjustment programme at the end of 1986.

     

Renewable and non-renewable energy consumption,environmental degradation and economic growth in Tunisia

The aim of this document is to investigate the dynamic relationship between economic growth, renewable energy consumption, energy consumption and CO₂ emissions in Tunisia over the period 1990–2015. Unit root tests and co-integration test was used in order to detect the order of stationary and to test the existence long run links between the used variables. We apply the Granger causality test and VECM model to discover the short and long run links between the variables. Results have shown a bidirectional causal relationship between energy use and CO₂ emissions. Economic growth affects CO₂ emission in the short and long run. While there is a unidirectional links running from energy use to economic growth at short run. The paper shares best practices from Tunisia in terms of efficient use of renewable energy policy enablers, which may be contextualized in other emerging economies in order to keep sustainability and to achieve the green economy.     

When the Past Poses Beside the Present: Aestheticising Politics and Nationalising Modernity in a Postcolonial Time

This article focuses on the Tunisian government's tourist promotion policies during the 1990s. It takes a Deleuzian perspective, using the notion of crystalline narration developed by the author of The Time-Image. I will emphasise the idea of coalescence between past and present as revealed in the advertising images of the period where heritage objects appear among other contemporary objects.

In fact, I will draw on a corpus of short films and commercials produced by the Tunisian tourism bureau to be broadcast both inside and outside the country. My analysis will focus on the ways in which actors in the fields of politics and tourism use these objects for media purposes, targeting both Tunisians and foreign tourists to whom they strive to hold up a crystal-image of Tunisia. This image is shored up by a political discourse put forward by a state that wishes to appear both to its citizens and to others as reconciling past and present. The crystal metaphor evokes a narrative mode in which heritage is likened to the glittering of scattered crystals and Tunisian identity seems to emerge from the ‘mists of time’ with sparkling refractions on ‘tips of the present’.