Forecast-error-based estimation of forecast uncertainty when the horizon is increased

Past forecast errors are employed frequently in the estimation of the unconditional forecast uncertainty, and several institutions have increased their forecast horizons in recent times. This work addresses the question of how forecast-error-based estimation can be performed if there are very few errors available for the new forecast horizons. It extends the results of Knüppel (2014) in order to relax the condition on the data structure that is required for the SUR estimator to be independent of unknown quantities. It turns out that the SUR estimator of the forecast uncertainty, which estimates the forecast uncertainty for all horizons jointly, tends to deliver large efficiency gains relative to the OLS estimator (i.e., the sample mean of the squared forecast errors for each individual horizon) in the case of increased forecast horizons. The SUR estimator is applied to the forecast errors of the Bank of England, the US Survey of Professional Forecasters, and the FOMC.     

How to move away from the silos of business management education?

Business management education is criticized for being too theoretical and fractional. Despite the numerous efforts to build integrated and experiential business curricula, learning is still organized in disciplinary silos. The curriculum integration efforts are carried out in separate sections of the curriculum rather than the core. There are theoretical, holistic models, but a lack of concrete examples of holistic business curriculum implementations. The authors bring the separate sections together by developing a holistic core curriculum model with three perspectives: a structure to bring intellectual coherence, people organized in learning communities, and an enterprise resource planning–supported learning environment to bring the practical training ground. The authors present a concrete implementation in a case study with first-year undergraduate business students and present their lessons learned.     

Interest rate assumptions and predictive accuracy of central bank forecasts

The interest rate assumptions for macroeconomic forecasts differ among central banks. Common approaches are given by the assumptions that interest rates remain constant over the forecast horizon, follow a path as expected by market participants or follow a path as expected by the central bank itself. Theoretical papers such as Svensson (The instrument-rate projection under inflation targeting: the Norwegian example. Centre for European Policy Studies Working Paper (127), 2006) and Galí (J Monet Econ 58:537–550, 2011) suggest an accuracy ranking for these forecasts, from employing central bank expectations yielding the highest forecast accuracy to conditioning on constant interest rates yielding the lowest. Yet, when investigating the predictive accuracy of the Bank of England’s and the Banco Central do Brasil’s forecasts for interest rates, inflation and output growth, we hardly find any significant differences between forecasts based on the different interest rate paths. Our results suggest that the choice of the interest rate assumption appears to be of minor relevance empirically.     

Customer Tuchpoins marken- und kundenpezifisch mangen

Marken hinterlassen an allen Kontaktpunkten mit Kunden Spuren und Fingerabdrücke. Dessen sind sich Manager und Mitarbeiter oft nicht bewusst. Das Management sowie die marken- und kundenspezifische Abstimmung aller Kontaktpunkte bieten somit gro?es Potenzial für Unternehmen zur wirksameren Vermarktung ihrer Marken. Unternehmen, die Kunden ganzheitlich positive und zufriedenstellende Markenerlebnisse an allen Kontaktpunkten vermitteln, sind erfolgreicher im Wettbewerb.     

Chris Willett (Ed.): Public Sector Reform and the Citizen's Charter. London: Blackstone Press, 1996.

Journal of Consumer Policy -     

Using enterprise architecture artefacts in an organisation

As a tool for management and planning, Enterprise Architecture (EA) can potentially align organisations’ business processes, information, information systems and technology towards a common goal, and supply the information required within this journey. However, an explicit view on why, how, when and by whom EA artefacts are used in order to realise its full potential is not defined. Utilising the features of information systems use studies and data from a case study with 14 EA stakeholder interviews, we identify and describe 15 EA artefact use situations that are then reflected in the related literature. Their analysis enriches understanding of what are EA artefacts, how and why they are used and when are they used, and results in a theoretical framework for understanding their use in general.     

Asymptotic expansion of the power function of the two-sample binomial test with and without randomization

The paper deals with the asymptotic expansion of the power function of the two-sample binomial test. This test is a conditional test which is based upon the hypergeometric distribution, and we consider both the version with and without randomization. First, we give the asymptotic expansion of the hypergeometric distribution function and of its quantiles including randomization weights. Then we describe the asymptotic expansions of the power function of the two test versions and discuss the results.     

Vergleich zweier Testverfahren zur Symmetrieprüfung in 4-Felder-Tafeln

In order to jugde the success of an election campaign, two opinion surveys are to be carried out at two different times, each timen people being asked about their opinion with respect to the partyx. Now the question arises whether we should ask the same sample ofn people both times (test of McNemar for the comparison of dependent frequencies) or whether it would be more suitable to carry out the second survey independently of the first one (test for the comparison of independent frequencies). In the present paper we calculate the asymptotic power functions of these two test procedures and derive the asymptotic relative efficiency (ARE).     

Betriebliche Beschäftigungspakte und deren ökonomische Effizienz

Zusammenfassung  Wie eine Vielzahl aktueller Beispiele (z. B. Burda, DaimlerChrysler, Deutsche Bahn, Opel, Siemens, VW) zeigt, werden im Rahmen von Betriebsvereinbarungen zunehmend Besch?ftigungszusagen für die Arbeitskr?fte gegen eine Lohnreduzierung „getauscht“. Nicht selten sind Ankündigungen des Managements, Betriebsteile ins Ausland zu verlagern, Ausl?ser solcher Verhandlungen. Unter Verweis der Unternehmensleitung auf die im Ausland geltenden, teils erheblich niedrigeren Stundenl?hne erkl?ren sich die betroffenen Belegschaften, vertreten durch die Betriebsr?te und mit Billigung der zust?ndigen Gewerkschaften, bereit, abweichend vom Fl?chentarifvertrag einer Reduzierung ihrer Stundenl?hne durch Erh?hung der Arbeitszeiten und/oder Gehaltsverzicht gegen den Verzicht auf Standortverlagerungen und die damit verbundenen Entlassungen zuzustimmen. Der vorliegende Beitrag analysiert die Voraussetzungen und m?gliche Ergebnisse solcher Besch?ftigungspakte. Den Analyserahmen bildet ein an dem aus der Gewerkschaftstheorie bekannten „Modell der effizienten Verhandlung“ von McDonald und Solow orientierter Ansatz. Dabei wird das McDonald/Solow-Modell in wesentlichen Punkten erweitert, um die betrachtete Problemstellung ad?quat analysieren zu k?nnen. Es wird aufgezeigt, unter welchen Konstellationen sich bestimmte Lohn-Arbeitszeit-Kombinationen einstellen und inwiefern die ?konomischen Rahmenbedingungen einer Standortverlagerung ins Ausland Einfluss auf das Verhandlungsergebnis haben. Prof. Dr. Thomas Bürkle ist am Lehrstuhl für Personalwirtschaft der Johann Wolfgang Goethe-Universit?t Frankfurt am Main t?tig. Zudem vertritt er das Fach Personalwirtschaft in Lehre und Forschung an der Hessischen Berufsakademie und an der Fachhochschule für Oekonomie und Management (FOM) in Frankfurt. Seine Forschungsschwerpunkte liegen in den Bereichen Personalwirtschaft, Neuere Institutionen?konomie und Arbeitsmarkttheorie. 1999 wurde seine Dissertation unter dem Titel „Qualit?tsunsicherheit am Arbeitsmarkt“ ver?ffentlicht. 2004 erschien die Habilitationsschrift zum Thema „Besch?ftigungssicherheit als konstituierendes Element interner Arbeitsm?rkte“. Dr. Michael Kn?rzer ist wissenschaftlicher Assistent an der Johann Wolfgang Goethe-Universit?t Frankfurt am Main. Nebenberuflich h?lt er Vorlesungen an der Fachhochschule für Oekonomie und Management. Zu seinen Forschungsschwerpunkten z?hlen Fragestellungen der Personalplanung, der Personalführung und der Anreizgestaltung aus institutionen?konomischer Perspektive. Er promovierte über spieltheoretische Verhandlungsmodelle im Rahmen betrieblicher Mitbestimmung bezüglich flexibler Arbeitszeiten und alternativer Besch?ftigungsformen. Zu seinen aktuellen Forschungsprojekten geh?rt die Gestaltung effizienter Entlohnungssysteme für flexibilit?tsgerechte Qualifikationslohnmodelle.     

Enhancement of value investing strategies based on financial statement variables: the German evidence

This paper examines the added-value of combining traditional valuation ratios with each other as well as with some financial statement variables in the German stock markets during the 2000–2015 period. The results show that combination pays off and, moreover, that the benefits of combination are greater in Germany than in most other developed stock markets. Particularly, we find strong evidence of the added-value of using Piotroski’s F-score as a supplementary selection criterion for value stocks as well as for low-accrual stocks. Our results show further that the F-score also boosts the efficacy of other valuation ratios besides the book-to-price ratio. In addition, the inclusion of F-score besides a relative value measure tends to increase the average market equity of portfolio firms. The decomposition of the full-sample-period performance into separate bull- and bear-period performance shows clearly that the better performance of F-score-boosted portfolios is mostly attributable to their outperformance during bearish periods, even though on average, they also generate higher bull-period returns than the comparable value portfolios formed without F-score. The use of F-score as a supplementary criterion also increases the proportion of stocks that earn above-market-average returns during the subsequent holding period. For the first time in the financial literature, we also document a strong relationship between high F-score stocks and momentum stocks.