The impact of regulation fair disclosure on earnings management and analyst forecast bias

Regulation Fair Disclosure (FD) has changed the information transfer process in the US securities market. We examine the impact that regulation FD has had on earnings management and analyst forecast bias. First, we examine the accuracy of financial analysts' earnings forecasts in the post-FD period. We find that analysts have become less accurate in forecasting earnings in the post-FD period and tend to overestimate earnings more relative to the pre-FD period. Second, we examine the level of earnings management after the passage of regulation FD and we find that the level of earnings management did not change after the implementation of regulation FD     

A Behavioral Shift in Earnings Response After Regulation FD

The Regulation Fair Disclosure of 1999 (FD) intends to promote the full and fair disclosure of price information and further prevent insider trading. As a result, the public investors are expected to be empowered with more quality and relevant information. This study examines a behavioral shift in investor reaction to quarterly earnings announcements after the passage of the FD due to the expected improvement in information asymmetry. The empirical findings suggest that investors show a behavioral shift after the FD in response to biased earnings forecasts. Investors become more active in that they place a discount on optimistic earnings forecasts during the earnings announcement period. It is less obvious that they place a premium on pessimistic forecasts. Another coherent finding is that investors attempt to correct for the announcement-period mis-adjustments during the post-announcement period.     

Financial distress,information asymmetry,and syndicate structure: Evidence from Japanese borrowers

This paper examines how borrower firm characteristics affect syndicate size structure in the Japanese loan market for the 1999–2003 period when the banking system is undergoing a major consolidation. We find that syndicates are smaller when borrowers have higher credit risk and when borrowers present larger information asymmetries to the lending group. Interestingly, however, these results are primarily driven by keiretsu (business group) firms. This suggests that the benefits of enhanced monitoring and superior renegotiation prospects are especially useful for banks participating in syndicated loans to Keiretsu firms in Japan rather than informationally opaque, independent firms.     

Investors' Use of Historical Forecast Bias to Adjust Current Expectations

We explore the extent to which investor response to earnings information differs in the presence of historical bias in earnings forecasts. Overall, the results are consistent with the notion that investors take historical forecast bias into account when interpreting information in earnings announcements and that the market's reaction to forecast errors is larger (less negative) when forecasts are historically more optimistic and suggests that the functional form commonly used in the earnings response literature does not appropriately capture the effect of real unexpected earnings information (i.e., investors' expectation errors as opposed to analysts' forecast errors) on stock returns.     

An Examination of the Equity Market Response to The Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act Across Commercial Banking, Investment Banking, and Insurance Firms

Abstract:  This paper examines the wealth effects of the events surrounding the passage of the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act of 1999 and changes in systematic risk from the pre-Act period to the post-Act period for commercial banks, investment banks, and insurance firms. The results suggest that investment banks and insurance firms are better positioned to exploit the benefits of product-line diversification opportunities allowed by the legislation compared to commercial banks that experience no significant market reaction. Further evidence indicates a significant risk shift and overall reduction in riskiness for the financial sectors under consideration around the event period.     

Forecast persistence and clustering: Additional evidence

This study intends to address the persistence of the bias in analysts’ earnings forecasts and clustering effects of time, industry classification, and stock exchange listing. Following Kwag and Shrieves (2006), I use a look-back portfolio formation method that captures salient features of analysts’ past forecasting behavior and form quintile portfolios that describe the range of analysts’ forecasting behavior. Consistent with Kwag and Shrieves, empirical evidence suggests that analyst optimism and pessimism tend to persist. Time, industry classification, and stock exchange listing do not seem to influence such phenomenon. (JEL G14, G19)