A Backward Induction Experiment

This paper reports experiments with one-stage and two-stage alternating-offers bargaining games. Payoff-interdependent preferences have been suggested as an explanation for experimental results that are commonly inconsistent with players' maximizing their monetary payoffs and performing backward induction calculations. We examine whether, given payoff-interdependent preferences, players respect backward induction. To do this, we break backward induction into its components, subgame consistency and truncation consistency. We examine each by comparing the outcomes of two-stage bargaining games with one-stage games with varying rejection payoffs. We find and characterize systematic violations of both subgame and truncation consistency. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C70, C78.     

Human environment as a local public good

Individuals of different types form groups, thereby creating a human environment which contributes to their utility. Trade takes place within a group. The paper proves the existence of a stable partition of the individuals and then presents an example showing how this stable partition varies with the overall composition of the society.     

TRUCKING DEREGULATION AND MOTOR-CARRIER PERFORMANCE: THE SHAREHOLDERS' PERSPECTIVE

This paper utilizes an event study methodology to investigate the effects of deregulation on carriers' shareholders. This methodology compares the expected returns during a time period surrounding a particular event with actual returns during the same time period. These differences are referred to as prediction errors. The study investigates the prediction errors associated with individual trucking firms, as well as those associated with groups composed of regional carriers, national carriers, and the aggregate sample of firms used in the study. The results suggest that the passage of the Motor Carrier Reform Act on July 1, 1980, halted a serious 18-month downward trend in the aggregate sample's cumulative prediction error. Nearly all firms showed significant gains in the 18 months subsequent to deregulation. Using two control groups, the authors show that a large portion of this gain from the industry sample can be explained by lower and more stable fuel prices and a sharp upturn in the economy. The results also indicate that due to deregulation, the large regional trucking firms were able to outperform the small regional firms and the national firms in the more favorable economic environment present after deregulation.     

Some properties of the minimum and the maximum of random variables with joint logconcave distributions

It is shown that if (X ₁, X ₂, . . . , X _n ) is a random vector with a logconcave (logconvex) joint reliability function, then X _P = min _i∈P X _i has increasing (decreasing) hazard rate. Analogously, it is shown that if (X ₁, X ₂, . . . , X _n ) has a logconcave (logconvex) joint distribution function, then X ^P  = max _i∈P X _i has decreasing (increasing) reversed hazard rate. If the random vector is absolutely continuous with a logconcave density function, then it has a logconcave reliability and distribution functions and hence we obtain a result given by Hu and Li (Metrika 65:325–330, 2007). It is also shown that if (X ₁, X ₂, . . . , X _n ) has an exchangeable logconcave density function then both X _P and X ^P have increasing likelihood ratio.     

Stochastic orderings of convolution residuals

In this paper we study convolution residuals, that is, if $X_1,X_2,\ldots ,X_n$ are independent random variables, we study the distributions, and the properties, of the sums $\sum _{i=1}^lX_i-t$ given that $\sum _{i=1}^kX_i>t$ , where $t\in \mathbb R $ , and $1\le k\le l\le n$ . Various stochastic orders, among convolution residuals based on observations from either one or two samples, are derived. As a consequence computable bounds on the survival functions and on the expected values of convolution residuals are obtained. Some applications in reliability theory and queueing theory are described.     

A segmentation study of Israeli mall customers

The study presents a segmentation of Israeli mall customers. The study sets three goals: developing a typology of Israeli mall customers based on their behaviors; examining the socio-demographic profile of each segment; and comparing Israeli customers to customers from other countries. The behaviors in this study are divided into three categories: visiting patterns; motivations for trips to the mall; and activities engaged in during the visit. Data were obtained from 636 Israeli customers. The main findings suggest four groups of customers: Disloyal, Family Bonders, Minimalists and Mall Enthusiasts. The segments were found to differ in socio-demographic characteristics. The study results can serve as a marketing tool for retailers.     

Correlated equilibria and local interactions

Summary This paper shows that Nash equilibria of a local-interaction game are equivalent to correlated equilibria of the underlying game.This work was done while George Mailath and Larry Samuelson were visiting the University of Bonn, whose hospitality is gratefully acknowledged. We thank Ken Binmore for helpful discussions. This is a revision of Section 2 of Mailath, Samuelson, and Shaked [6]. Financial support from the National Science Foundation and the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, Sonderforschungsbereich 303 at the University of Bonn, is gratefully acknowledged.     

Local human capital formation and optimal FDI

This paper lends both theoretical and empirical support to the notion of optimal foreign direct investment (FDI) levels. It does so by uncovering an inverted-U-shaped relationship between FDI and human capital formation. The optimality of a particular FDI inflow depends on the educational incentives induced by FDI on the local, heterogeneous population. Our estimates confirm the significance of a positive (linear) and a negative (non-linear) impact of FDI stocks on tertiary schooling, which are exclusively relevant in developing countries.     

AIRLINE DEREGULATION AND THE PROBABILITY OF AIR CARRIER INSOLVENCY

This study investigates the effects of deregulation from the perspective of airline lenders. Airline-specific, pre- and post-deregulation insolvency probabilities are used to assess the effects on creditors. The results suggest that the financial condition of several airlines has significantly deteriorated as a by-product of deregulation, although most have been unaffected.