Fuller Employment with Uptrending Prices: The 1968 Economic Report

When used in those spheres of life where attaching a price tag or making an economic calculus is impossible or loses any meaning, markets usually under perform and disappoint. In addition to empirical shortcomings of markets, the unrealistic theoretical assumption and poor predictive and explanatory value of neoclassical equilibrium theory provides fertile ground for critics of the institution of markets. Complexity theory provides a theoretical framework that enables us to analyze the role of markets from a radically different perspective than that offered by neoclassical equilibrium theory and, therefore, to reach very different conclusions about the role of markets in industrialized economies.     

Real Estate Returns: A Comparison with Other Investments

Real estate returns, measured unleveraged, have been between those of stocks and bonds over 1960–1982. Due to appraisal smoothing and imperfect marketability, one must be careful about directly comparing measured real estate returns with those on other assets. It is likely, however, that low correlations with stocks and bonds make real estate a diversification opportunity for traditional portfolio managers. In addition, the issue of how various assets are priced is addressed. While stocks are priced primarily on market or beta risk, and bonds are priced primarily on interest rate and default risk, the real estate pricing mechanism includes residual risk and non-risk factors such as taxes, marketability costs and information costs.     

Criteria used by venture capitalists to evaluate new venture proposals

A questionnaire was administered to one hundred venture capitalists to determine the most important criteria that they use to decide on funding new ventures. Perhaps the most important finding from the study is direct confirmation of the frequently iterated position taken by the venture capital community that above all it is the quality of the entrepreneur that ultimately determines the funding decision. Five of the top ten most important criteria had to do with the entrepreneur's experience or personality. There is no question that irrespective of the horse (product), horse race (market), or odds (financial criteria), it is the jockey (entrepreneur) who fundamentally determines whether the venture capitalist will place a bet at all.The question is if this is the case, then why is so much emphasis placed on the business plan? In a business plan there is generally little to indicate the characteristics of the entrepreneur—it is generally devoted to a detailed discussion of the product/service, the market, and the competition. To us, the implications are obvious—such content is necessary, but not sufficient. The business plan should also show as clearly as possible that the “jockey is fit to ride” —namely, indicate by whatever feasible and credible means possible that the entrepreneur has staying power, has a track record, can react to risk well, and has familiarity with the target market. Failing this, he or she needs to be able to pull together a team that has such characteristics and show that he or she is capable of leading that team.Factor analysis of the results indicate that venture capitalists appear to assess ventures systematically in terms of six categories of risk to be managed. These are: risk of losing the entire investment: risk of being unable to bail out if necessary; risk of failure to implement the venture idea; competitive risk; risk of management failure; and risk of leadership failure.Finally, three clusters of venture capitalists were identified: those who carefully assess the competitive and implementation risks: those who seek easy bail out; and those who deliberately keep as many options open as possible.     

MEASURING RISK AVERSION: ALLOCATION,LEVERAGE, AND ACCUMULATION

The risk-asset ratio that measures Arrow-Pratt relative risk aversion reflects a multidimensional risk behavior. The risk-asset ratio is decomposed into the product of ratios that measure portfolio allocation between riskless and risk assets, use of financial leverage, and accumulation of wealth in marketable form. The three dimensions are less sensitive to the definition of wealth than is the composite risk-asset ratio. Constant relative risk aversion can be characterized by offsetting changes in the three dimensions as wealth changes.     

The effectiveness of monetary reform under rational expectations

Automatic monetary stabilizers based on interest rate information are analyzed in a rational expectations framework. Their impact on price level variability is studied, and their effectiveness is compared to optimal decentralized monetary instruments.