Job Characteristics and Labor Market Discrimination in Promotions

We extend promotion signaling theory to generate new testable implications concerning racial differences in promotions. In our model, promotions signal worker ability. When tasks differ substantially across job levels, the opportunity cost of not promoting qualified non‐whites/non‐Asians is large, so employers are less likely to inefficiently withhold their promotions. Thus, given prepromotion performance, the extent to which non‐whites/non‐Asians have lower promotion probabilities decreases when tasks vary more across levels. Racial differences in wage increases at promotion diminish when tasks vary more across levels. Evidence from a single firm's personnel records supports the model's predictions concerning promotion probabilities.     

The impact of advertising content on movie revenues

We analyze the contents of print ads in the motion picture industry (e.g., number of reviews quoted in the ad, the presence of a top reviewer, size of the ad, star, director, etc.). We find that external validation (a recommendation by a top reviewer) is more important to revenues than the informative content of the ad.     

Standard promotion practices versus up‐or‐out contracts

This article develops a theory concerning the choice between standard promotion practices and up‐or‐out contracts. Our theory is based on asymmetric learning and promotion incentives. We find that firms employ up‐or‐out contracts when firm‐specific human capital is low and standard promotion practices when it is high. We also find that, if commitment to a wage floor is feasible and effort provision is important, up‐or‐out is employed when low‐ and high‐level jobs are similar. These results are consistent with many of the settings in which up‐or‐out is typically observed, such as law firms and academia.     

Foreign Direct Investment in Sub-Saharan Africa: Motivating Factors and Policy Issues

Sub-Saharan Africa's (SSA) foreign direct investment (FDI) share has persistently averaged 1% of global flows. The location decision and perceptions of investors are therefore instructive for policy making. This article factor analyses a survey of perceptions, operations, and motivations of 758 foreign investors in 10 SSA countries. We find that the provision of transaction cost–reducing information on industries and markets and utility services to investors before and after a firm's FDI decision are significant factors. FDI location decision in SSA is influenced strongly by political economy considerations. Labor and production input variables are not influential.     

Fast Kernel Smoothing of Point Patterns on a Large Network using Two‐dimensional Convolution

We propose a computationally efficient and statistically principled method for kernel smoothing of point pattern data on a linear network. The point locations, and the network itself, are convolved with a two‐dimensional kernel and then combined into an intensity function on the network. This can be computed rapidly using the fast Fourier transform, even on large networks and for large bandwidths, and is robust against errors in network geometry. The estimator is consistent, and its statistical efficiency is only slightly suboptimal. We discuss bias, variance, asymptotics, bandwidth selection, variance estimation, relative risk estimation and adaptive smoothing. The methods are used to analyse spatially varying frequency of traffic accidents in Western Australia and the relative risk of different types of traffic accidents in Medellín, Colombia.     

Access to information and international portfolio allocation

We examine whether foreign equity holdings of portfolio investors depend on the level of information accessibility between the investors’ home and host countries. Using a comprehensive data set, alternative measures of information accessibility and robust analytical techniques, we show that differences in access to cross-country information significantly influence investors’ portfolio allocation decisions. Furthermore, the results suggest that for a given level of access to information, investors prefer to invest more in countries with a higher quality of legal/macro-institutions. Finally, the findings also confirm that the implications of information accessibility are more pronounced when markets are turbulent.     

Do Style-Goods Retailers’ Demands for Guaranteed Profit Margins Unfairly Exploit Vendors?

Retailers, particularly those in the style-goods and fashion apparel industry, are increasingly demanding guaranteed profit margins (GPMs) from their vendors. Under a GPM stipulation, a vendor has to offer a rebate to maintain the retailer’s target margin on the item if the retailer is compelled to take a markdown from the initial price to sell out the ordered quantity for the season. Vendors dispute retailers’ claim that a GPM is a “win-win” mechanism for both parties. They rather view it as a coercive device. The authors examine this issue in a multistage game with demand uncertainty. Interestingly, the analysis shows that depending on the level of demand uncertainty, it may be optimal for the vendor to lower rather than raise his wholesale price upon being asked for a GPM. Further, the analysis shows that under conditions of low demand uncertainty the provision of a GPM by the vendor to the retailer can indeed yield higher profits for both parties than in the NO GPM case.     

Will African Agriculture Survive Climate Change?

Measurement of the likely magnitude of the economic impact ofclimate change on African agriculture has been a challenge.Using data from a survey of more than 9,000 farmers across 11African countries, a cross-sectional approach estimates howfarm net revenues are affected by climate change compared withcurrent mean temperature. Revenues fall with warming for drylandcrops (temperature elasticity of –1.9) and livestock (–5.4),whereas revenues rise for irrigated crops (elasticity of 0.5),which are located in relatively cool parts of Africa and arebuffered by irrigation from the effects of warming. At first,warming has little net aggregate effect as the gains for irrigatedcrops offset the losses for dryland crops and livestock. Warming,however, will likely reduce dryland farm income immedia-tely.The final effects will also depend on changes in precipitation,because revenues from all farm types increase with precipitation.Because irrigated farms are less sensitive to climate, wherewater is available, irrigation is a practical adaptation toclimate change in Africa.     

滇中城市群优化发展模式研究

本文以滇中城市群规划为例,结合中外合作编制《云南省滇中城市群规划》实践,采用多情景发展模拟,将GIS工具与传统规划手段紧密耦合,针对离散型、区域型、都市型、网络型四种发展模式进行情景分析,并从中探索适合滇中城市群未来发展的、相对合理的规划方案。最终得出一个阶段性发展方案,即在2030年以前滇中城市群以区域型模式为主导,2030年以后以网络型模式为主的发展模式,推进滇中地区稳步、有序发展,逐步实现生态安全、资源集约、经济繁荣三者高度统一。