Capital structure and signaling game equilibria

In this article we model the financing decisions of a firm asa sequential signaling game. We prove that, when insiders haveperfect information regarding the firm's future case flows,the application of 'refinements' to the set of admissible equilibrialeads to the dominance of debt over equity financing. However,we show that when insiders observe the firm's cash flows imperfectly,there may exist sequential equilibria in which this 'peckingorder' breaks down and some firms strictly prefer equity todebt financing. We also prove that, despite the breakdown ofthe pecking order, the announcement effect of equity financingwill be negative relative to debt financing.     

Canonical Correlation Analysis and Wiener-Granger Causality Tests: Useful Tools for the Specification of VAR Models

Dynamic multivariate models have become popular in analyzing the behavior of competitive marketing systems because they are capable of incorporating all the relationships in a competitive marketing environment. In this paper we consider VAR models, the most frequently used dynamic multivariate models. The drawback of VAR models is that a large number of parameters have to be estimated. The problem has been addressed in several articles and the usual solution is to treat only the variables of interest as endogenous while the other variables are usually included exogenously without dynamic effects. This treatment imposes restrictions on the marketing system, which requires preliminary analysis. We propose to use canonical correlation for this purpose. Canonical correlation analysis and its associated Wiener-Granger causality testing based on the canonical correlation coefficients are useful tools to test the existence of structural relationships between (lagged) consumer response and (lagged) marketing instruments. The tools are applied on data of market shares and marketing instruments in a market of a frequently purchased consumer goods.     

Of shepherds, sheep, and the cross-autocorrelations in equity returns

We present an economic mechanism and supportive empirical evidencefor the transmission of information between equity securitiesfirst documented by Lo and MacKinlay (1990). It is argued thatthe past returns on stocks held by informed institutional traderswill be positively correlated with the contemporaneous returnson stocks held by noninstitutional uninformed traders. Evidenceconsistent with this hypothesis is then presented. We documentthat the returns on the portfolio of stocks with the highestlevel of institutional ownership lead the returns of portfoliosof stocks with lower levels of institutional ownership. Thiseffect persists even after firm size is controlled for and isapparent at longer lags than the size-related lag effect documentedin Lo and MacKinlay (1990).     

THE DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME BETWEEN SOCIO-ECONOMIC GROUPS IN THE NETHERLANDS

This paper reports on a study designed to improve the information on income flows and income distribution in the Netherlands national accounts by building a bridge between the national accounts and income tax statistics. The methods used are described in some detail, and the significance of the results obtained is discussed. The figures show rather substantial fluctuations in the share of proprietors relative to that of wage earners. This result is not unexpected, since the share of proprietors is much more sensitive to the level of economic activity, but it does limit the usefulness of the figures for short-run economic policy determination. In the longer run, however, they do show what the development of the average incomes of the various social groups has been, and to what extent government action has contributed to that development.     

Evidence of risk premiums in foreign currency futures markets

Weekly data for foreign currency futures prices are examinedfor evidence of risk premium. Covariance risks are measuredwith respect to the excess returns from benchmark portfoliosfor consumption and wealth. When the parameters representingthe prices of the covariance risks are held constant, no riskpremiums are detected. However, when these prices are allowedto vary with the conditional expected returns and variancesof the benchmark portfolios, possibly reflecting changing investmentopportunities, strong evidence of risk premiums is obtained.     

Auctions for transferable objects: Theory and evidence from the vehicle quota system in Singapore

This paper studies the hypothesis that auctions with resale markets result in higher prices. The vehicle quota system introduced in Singapore in May 1990 provides the setting. The Certificates of Entitlement (COEs) necessary to purchase new cars were initially transferable for all quota categories. After October 1991, COEs for four major categories became non-transferable. Our results indicate that while the conversion to non-transferability eliminated speculation, it has also intensified competition among car distributors. Auctions for non-transferable COEs in fact led to higher COE prices in three of the four categories.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the Symposium on Law and the Social Sciences, 7 August 1992, at the Regional English Language Centre, Singapore. We want to thank our colleagues for discussions on the subject, the Chief Editor and two anonymous referees of the journal for their constructive comments and suggestions, and the Registry of Vehicles of Singapore for providing us with the data for this study. Financial Support from NUS Grant RP900048 is gratefully acknowledged. We are solely responsible for the errors in the paper.     

Unconditional and conditional takeover offers: experimental evidence

This article compares the predictions of finite-shareholdermodels of conditional and unconditional takeover offers withthe outcomes of laboratory experiments. In addition to differentiatingbetween types of offers, the experimental designs span smalland large firms as well as different levels of offer premiums.It is found that in unconditional offers to large groups ofsubjects (28-40), the symmetric Nash equilibrium predicts observedtendering frequencies quite accurately. For other experimentaldesigns, the results are mixed. The analysis of shareholdertendering strategies from the experiment yields insights into(I) the effects of takeover offer designs, (ii) the appropriatenessof finite-shareholder models for research, and (iii) the costsof free riding when shareholders are nonatomistic.     

Strategic debt restructuring

We analyze a distressed firm indebted to many creditors. Thefirm's owners have the option of choosing the sequence of restructuringnegotiations with the creditors. We show that sequencing flexibilityis beneficial to firm owners, and that the optimal sequencingof restructuring negotiations involves exploiting the firm'sliabilities to some creditors so as to moderate the demandsof others. Moderately distressed firms will extract concessionsfrom all creditors. In this case, owners can gain if they cancredibly commit to conditional restructuring agreements thatlink the concessions of one creditor to concessions by others.