Personal Experiences and Expectations about Aggregate Outcomes

Using novel survey data, we document that individuals extrapolate from recent personal experiences when forming expectations about aggregate economic outcomes. Recent locally experienced house price movements affect expectations about future U.S. house price changes and higher experienced house price volatility causes respondents to report a wider distribution over expected U.S. house price movements. When we exploit within‐individual variation in employment status, we find that individuals who personally experience unemployment become more pessimistic about future nationwide unemployment. The extent of extrapolation is unrelated to how informative personal experiences are, is inconsistent with risk adjustment, and is more pronounced for less sophisticated individuals.     

Lender Automation and Racial Disparities in Credit Access

Process automation reduces racial disparities in credit access by enabling smaller loans, broadening banks' geographic reach, and removing human biases from decision making. We document these findings in the context of the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), where private lenders faced no credit risk but decided which firms to serve. Black-owned firms obtained PPP loans primarily from automated fintech lenders, especially in areas with high racial animus. After traditional banks automated their loan processing procedures, their PPP lending to Black-owned firms increased. Our findings cannot be fully explained by racial differences in loan application behaviors, preexisting banking relationships, firm performance, or fraud rates.     

Bacterial survival on fabrics laundered in cold water

The effect of detergent formulation and fabric type on bacterial survival after home laundering in cold water was investigated. Three fabrics, 65/35 polyester/cotton shirting, 100% cotton sheeting, and 100% cotton terry cloth, were inoculated with Staphylococcus aureus, laundered in cold 60 ± 5°F (16 ± 3°C) water and machine dried. Eight phosphorus-based powders and non-phosphorus detergents in both powder and liquid form were used. A control with no detergent was used. Percent reduction in bacteria after machine washing and after machine drying were determined. Of the eight detergents studied, only two effectively removed 100% of the bacteria from the cotton terry cloth after washing. These were sodium carbonate and aluminosilicate-based powders, one of which contained sodium perborate, the other included enzymes. All of the detergents used removed > 97% of bacteria from the polyester/cotton shirting and cotton sheeting fabrics. No significant cross contamination occurred with any fabric. A greater percent reduction of bacteria was obtained with the terry cloth samples after washing and tumble drying than after washing alone. The implications of the study are important for consumers who are using colder water in the laundering process. This study found that bacteria were removed more easily from the two plain weave fabrics than the looped terry cloth fabric. The effectiveness of tumble drying after cold water laundering to reduce bacteria in the terry cloth towelling was an important finding.