Analysis and Forecast of the State of Environmental Protection in Russia

The main purpose of the present study is to analyse the emission dynamics of atmospheric and water pollutants in Russia and cost of their removal in the 1980s and early 1990s, and to forecast them by means of a Dynamic Input–Output Model according to different scenarios of future economic development till 1998. Main results of the work are:– methodological principles have been elaborated for singling out the environmental protection sector within the national economy;– a method has been offered for including the ecological block into a Dynamic Input–Output Model of the Russian economy;– a method of data preparation has been elaborated for the ecological block of the above-named model, the data base which characterizes the ecological situation in Russia has been formed and analysed;– calculations for 1994–1998 have been executed for forecasting the economic and ecological development of Russia using the above-mentioned model and the results obtained have been analysed. The results showed that if the existing tendencies towards low environmental protection capital costs remain the same, then the negative environmental impact will increase. In order to implement ecological programs and international agreements, to increase the proportion of removed pollutants, it is necessary to increase substantially expenditures on purifying water and air resources. The proportion of environmental protection investments in the total amount of the national economy capital costs should increase by up to 12–40% according to different scenarios of the economic development and different purposes of the environmental protection policy.     

Capitalization of Flood Insurance and Risk Perceptions in Housing Prices: An Empirical Agent‐Based Model Approach

Federally regulated or insured lenders in the United States are mandated to require flood insurance on properties that are located in areas at high risk of flooding. Despite the existence of this mandatory flood insurance requirement, take‐up rates for flood insurance have been low, and the federal government's exposure to uninsured property losses from flooding remains substantial. Meanwhile, the value of capital at risk varies significantly with flood events and changing risk perceptions, which necessitates mechanisms that stabilize these dynamics. In this article we discuss how a scenario of complete insurance uptake, under various risk attitudes, affects the value of properties in the 100‐year and 500‐year flood zones. Our results indicate that an increase in flood insurance uptake may provide such a mechanism by lowering the value of capital at risk in the flood zone consistently, independent of homeowners' risk attitudes. We apply an empirical adaptive agent‐based model to examine the capitalization of insurance costs, risk premiums, and their interaction in housing prices. Our approach combines widely‐used empirical hedonic analysis with the computational economic framework. We highlight the usefulness of our method in capturing the marginal implicit price of homeowners' preferences that may change over time and separately assess the effect of various factors and policies on property values, illustrating the agent‐based modeling as a valuable complement to traditional hedonic analysis.     

Household Determinants of the Adoption of Improved Cassava Varieties using DNA Fingerprinting to Identify Varieties in Farmer Fields: A Case Study in Colombia

We examine factors affecting the adoption of improved cassava varieties of 217 households in the Cauca Department in southwest Colombia. Using DNA fingerprinting through Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs), we identified different cultivars in farmers fields. We also used this information to remove possible bias in the adoption model that could have resulted from a misclassification of improved varieties (IVs). As a result, we found that farmers substantially overestimate their use of IVs and there are important differences in the determinants of adoption between farmer self‐identification and DNA fingerprinting. This finding implies that the incorporation of DNA fingerprinting in IV adoption studies is important to ensure the accuracy of future agricultural economic research and the relevance of subsequent policy recommendations.     

The Effects of Initial Location,Aspirations, and Resources on Likelihood of First Sale in Nascent Firms*

The formation of a new venture includes initial choices that affect the process of start‐up. Primary among these decisions is the choice of location whether to start from home or from an away location. This paper examines the impact of initial firm location choices and aspirations of the entrepreneur on the resource assembly process and the likelihood of first sale. Results show that home‐based businesses assemble different types of resources from their away‐based counterparts. Higher aspirations were associated with greater accumulation of organizational resources. The combined influence of location and aspirations showed that home‐based firms with high aspirations were less likely to achieve first sale. A post hoc analysis examined these affects within a subgroup of service firms and confirmed the previous results. This study suggests that in the initial stages of the new venture, there are processes and routines that home‐based businesses engage in that lead them to achieve first sales in a timelier manner than those businesses that are located away from home. Furthermore, high aspirations are associated with greater scale of organizational resources but not necessarily with achievement of sales. Implications are discussed.     

The cyclical behavior of the Italian business survey data

This article investigates the cyclical behavior of the degree of plant utilization, inventories, order book level, and confidence climate index data (taken from Italian Business tendency surveys). It first analyzes the co-movements between the survey indicators and the Italian business cycle by performing a sensitivity analysis with respect to the reference business cycle and to the filtering technique, using time and frequency domain methods. It then discusses the ability of such indicators to predict business cycles and their importance with respect to other standard national accounts data. The results of bivariate analysis show that, whereas the degrees of plant utilization, confidence climate and order book level are procyclical, inventories appear to be countercyclical with respect to both the industrial sector and the whole-economy business cycle. Spectral analysis suggests that the high-frequency elements of the survey data tend to lead those of the business-cycle estimates obtained from the national income accounts. The choice of filtering technique affects the results, especially in the magnitude of co-movements. The forecasting exercise reveals the usefulness of such data in forecasting the real economy in the short run.     

An Examination of the Quality of Jobs in the Call Center Industry

This paper examines jobs in the information society and the new economy, taking as its focus the call center industry. More specifically, the study analyzes the degree of variability of the quality of call center jobs. In order to achieve this objective, an index of job quality is generated, and an empirical analysis of the characteristics of jobs in call centers is carried out. This allows us to determine the level and variability of quality of jobs in this sector and to establish whether the reality of these jobs is as good as the forecasts for work in the new economy.      

A comparison of national saving rates in the UK, US and Italy

We develop the approach of Gokhale, Kotlikoff and Sabelhaus [1996. Understanding the postwar decline in US saving: A cohort analysis. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 0, 315-390], based on the life-cycle model of savings, to decompose the differences in the national saving rates between the UK, US and Italy. Our work suggests that the US saving rate is lower principally because Americans on average retire later. In contrast, the Italian saving rate is higher predominantly because Italians are credit constrained, particularly when young. We also found that demography and the different tax and benefit systems are able to explain little of the cross-sectional differences in saving rates. The study accounts for the possible importance of inter-generational private transfers in determining saving rates.     

Impact of Chinese Agribusiness Entrepreneurs on the Local Land Market in the Russian Far East

Chinese originally migrated to the Russian Far East (RFE) to fill a labor shortage on collective farms. In more recent decades, some Chinese migrants have chosen to lease land from Russian farmers to manage their own farms. Rising soybean prices and the trade war between China and the United States have increased demand for land capable of producing soybeans. Thus, Chinese farmers in the RFE compete for land with Russians. The Chinese also contribute positively to local food security by increasing food availability and accessibility. This study uses an econometric model to analyze the impact of Chinese on local land markets in the RFE. Financial support for Russian farmers by the government depresses their demand for land; rising soybean prices and the employment of Chinese farm workers by Russian farmers encourage farm expansion, resulting in higher land prices. Selling farm produce to Chinese merchants increases the amount of land owned, cultivated, and rented by Russian farmers.