The over-optimism among experts in assessment and foresight

It is still disputed whether foresight exercises should be based on top-expert assessments or on a broader base of less specialised experts, and whether the self-rating of experts is an acceptable method. Using the German 1993 and the Austrian 1998 Technology Delphis, this study addresses both questions. Self-rating is, in fact, an appropriate method for selecting experts. But the assessment of self-rated top experts tend to suffer from an optimism bias due to the experts' involvement and their underestimation of realisation and diffusion problems. The degree of optimism is positively correlated with the degree of self-rated knowledge, and it is more pronounced for the least pioneering and for organizational innovations. Experts with top self-ratings working in business have a stronger optimism bias than those working in the academia or in the administration: Consistent with the insider hypothesis, they are most optimistic with regard to realisation, innovativeness, and potential leadership in economic exploitation. Given the optimism bias, foresight exercises should base their panels on a fair mixture of experts of different grades, with different types of knowledge and affiliation, and not only on top specialists of the respective field. Delphi-type exercises, therefore, offer an advantage relative to forum groups or small panels of specialists.     

Making judgment calls. The ultimate act of leadership

According to the traditional view, judgment is an event: You make a decision and then move on. Yet Tichy, of the University of Michigan's Ross School of Business, and Bennis, of the University of Southern California's Marshall School of Business, found that good leadership judgment occurs not in a single moment but throughout a process. From their research into the complex phenomenon of leadership judgment, the authors also found that most important judgment calls reside in one of three domains: people, strategy, and crisis. Understanding the essence of leadership judgment is crucial. A leader's calls determine an organization's success or failure and deliver the verdict on his or her career. The first phase of the judgment process is preparation--identifying and framing the issue that demands a decision and aligning and mobilizing key stakeholders. Second is the call itself, And third is acting on the call, learning and adjusting along the way. Good leaders use a "story line"--an articulation of a company's identity, direction, and values--to inform their actions throughout the judgment process. Boeing CEO Jim McNerney, for instance, focused on a story line of Boeing as a world-class competitor and ethical leader to make a judgment call that launched the company's recovery from a string of ethical crises. Good leaders also take advantage of "redo loops" throughout the process, reconsidering the parameters of the decision, relabeling the problem, and redefining the goal in a way that more and more people can accept. Procter & Gamble's A.G. Lafley and Best Buy's Brad Anderson have both used redo loops--in preparation and execution, respectively--to strengthen not only support for their calls but also the outcomes.     

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Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Die Bedeutung der Lager für die Konjunktur

Summary Macroeconomic inventory theory is heavily dominated by the 30 year old accelerator buffer-stock-model, which has been improved only marginally. Its main hypothesis is that entrepreneurs plan a constant inventory-sales-ratio and react on unforeseen deviations by filling in a fixed part of this gap per period, without regarding either the size of the gap nor the degree of capacity utilisation. This study emphasises the distinction between inventories of purchased goods and inventories of self-produced goods. Physical inventories of purchased goods are planned together with the stock of outstanding orders for these goods (as Mack has shown earlier); inventories of selfproduced goods are planned not autononously but together with production and sales. In the long run one should expect a declining inventory sales ratio, but less than the square root formula would suggest if stochastic considerations are taken into account. In the short run for uncertainty theoretical-reasons the planned inventory sales ratio will swing procyclically with undesired countermovements at the turns.In general therefore inventory planning enforces cyclical developments. Growing inventories of finished goods in the boom are possible only if there is no shortage of finished goods but a shortage of means of production. This however is at least not contrary to our evidence.