Technical analysis as the representation of typical cognitive biases

The present research provides a justification for the popularity of the technical analysis. It finds that financial analysts firmly discriminate between two types of technical signals—those based on typical cognitive biases and “empty” signals that sound like a technical analysis but are without any connotation with psychological inclinations.At the same time that they treat them differently, different analysts rate these items very similarly. These results suggest that the popularity of technical analysis is associated with its relation to the typical cognitive biases of humans.     

A counter-example to an option pricing formula under transaction costs

In the paper by Melnikov and Petrachenko (Finance Stoch. 9: 141–149, 2005), a procedure is put forward for pricing and replicating an arbitrary European contingent claim in the binomial model with bid-ask spreads. We present a counter-example to show that the option pricing formula stated in that paper can in fact lead to arbitrage. This is related to the fact that under transaction costs a superreplicating strategy may be less expensive to set up than a strictly replicating one.     

Grading Innovation in an International Marketing Course: Promoting Student Collaboration and Individual Accountability

In this article, the author proposes an innovative, exam-based homework grading method to facilitate both collaboration among students and individual accountability while learning a complex theory and applying it to solve a problem. Results from this novel approach to grading a comparative advantage theory homework assignment, using an objective exam performance measure to adjust original homework grades, show that students increase their comprehension of the frequently misunderstood theory. This novel grading method can be applied in a variety of contexts to promote student collaboration in preparation of academic work while providing incentives to encourage individual accountability and engagement.     

DO STOCK MARKET FLUCTUATIONS AFFECT SUICIDE RATES?

In this study, we extend the standard economic model of suicide by considering a new influential factor driving the voluntary death rate. Using an international sample, we estimate the model and document a robust and significant inverse relation between stock market returns and the percentage increase in suicide rates. Trends in male and female suicide are affected by market fluctuations, both contemporaneously and at a lag. This predictive quality of stock returns offers the potential to implement pro-active suicide prevention strategies for those who could be affected by the vagaries of the market and general economic downturns.     

Tests of Normality of Functional Data

The paper is concerned with testing normality in samples of curves and error curves estimated from functional regression models. We propose a general paradigm based on the application of multivariate normality tests to vectors of functional principal components scores. We examine finite sample performance of a number of such tests and select the best performing tests. We apply them to several extensively used functional data sets and determine which can be treated as normal, possibly after a suitable transformation. We also offer practical guidance on software implementations of all tests we study and develop large sample justification for tests based on sample skewness and kurtosis of functional principal component scores.     

INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION: A CASE AGAINST BUILDING EVER‐HIGHER FENCES

International migration, seen as a powerful force of truly global character that is shaping today's socio‐economic reality, is a highly controversial and politicised issue. This paper explores its ramifications in the context of a growing backlash against immigration across the rich world. Specifically, it argues that the free flow of people – like the free movement of goods and capital – is beneficial to developed and developing economies alike and, in doing so, shows how migration produces win–win outcomes. Thus the study, while admitting that inflows of foreign‐born workers pose challenges and entail trade‐offs, makes a case for the liberalisation of immigration policies. The paper deepens our understanding of the issues at hand and constitutes a voice in favour of liberal‐policy choices.     

Wage Bargaining,Privatisation, Ability to Pay and Outside Options: Evidence from Hungary

This article examines the determinants of short-term wage dynamics, using a sample of large Hungarian companies for 1996–99. We test the basic implications of an efficient contract model of bargaining between incumbent employees and managers, which the data do not reject. In particular, there are structural differences between the ownership sectors consistent with our prior knowledge on relative bargaining strength and unionisation measures. Stronger bargaining position of workers leads to higher ability to pay elasticity of wages, and lower outside option elasticity. Our results indicate that while bargaining position of workers in domestic privatised firms may be weaker than in the state sector, the more robust difference relates to state sector workers versus privatised firms with majority foreign ownership.     

The impact of Chinese monetary policy shocks on East and South‐East Asia1

We study the effects of Chinese monetary policy shocks on China's major trading partners in East and South‐East Asia by estimating structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models for six economies in the region. We find that a monetary expansion in Mainland China leads to an increase in real GDP (temporary) and the price level (permanent) in a number of economies in our sample, most notably in Hong Kong and the Philippines. The impact could result from intertemporal substitution present in a general equilibrium framework, which allows for positive domestic impacts of foreign monetary expansions. Our results emphasize the growing importance of China for its neighbouring economies and the significance of Chinese shocks for the design of monetary policy in Asian economies.     

信任、不信任与民主制的悖论

本文论述了信任与不信任产生的条件.一个全面的信任模型至少要包含三个方面,即"被信任者的可信度"、"信任者的基本信任倾向"以及催生信任的文化因素.信任文化的产生既有结构原因,又有历史原因.本文认为民主秩序是孕育信任的重要力量.