Evolution of futures studies

This article discusses the evolution of futures studies. The article starts with an evaluation of the different rival taxonomies and definitions for futures studies, and proceeds to discuss the very concept of paradigm. Are there paradigms in this discipline? If we think there are, what kind of arguments can we use to define those? I argue that there have been two paradigms in the evolution of futures studies so far, and there are signs of emergence of a new one. Both of the existing paradigms have had many rival macro-level methodological approaches, ontological and epistemological branches, and phases of evolution. The first paradigm is the age-old prediction tradition that combines thinking about the future into mystic explanations. This line of thinking bases its argument on the deterministic future and effects of the world of spirits. The second paradigm was basically started in the U.S. military after World War II. This modern line of thinking bases its argument on indeterministic futures, probabilities, aim to control and plan, modelling and systems thinking, and the effects of external trends. The new emerging paradigm may base its line of thinking on disconnecting from the western control based technical thinking, and accepting internal dynamic fluctuations, paradoxes and dialectic thinking.     

Plato on Leadership

The purpose of this paper is to identify the various dimensions of leadership emerging in Plato'ss discussions on ideal political governance and then generalize them to fit in with current discussions. The consideration will also cover some areas of organizational ethics, managerial discourses on rhetoric, management of meaning an charismatic leadership are presented. Also the possibility to evaluate the ethically "dark" sides of leadership (like totalitarian and truth-manipulating aspects) is sketched.     

Downsizing and Ethics of Personnel Dismissals — The Case of Finnish Managers

The purpose of our article is to present a qualitative empirical study from the ethical viewpoint. It aims at the theoretical conceptualization concerning the managers' decision-making of personnel dismissals in downsizing organizations. First we present and seek to motivate our research task. The importance of real business ethical issues as a starting point of business ethics research is emphasized. Second the main normative ethical theories and ethical decision-making models are presented. These form the loose framework for describing and interpreting research interviews. After this the empirical findings are set forth. This part suggests that the managers explain the dismissals from different decision-making roles emphasizing different ethical orientation. The roles are called a rational and an independent manager, a marionette and an emotional individual. Our study suggests that the role of empathy in morality reveals an interesting and a necessary research topic for business ethics research.     

Discourses of Charisma: Barack Obama’s First 6 Months as the President of the USA

This study aims to investigate discourses of the charisma of Barack Obama in articles in a leading Finnish newspaper during the first 6 months of his presidency. The results show that the media created a very enthusiastic atmosphere around Obama. His charisma was built up mostly around his person, with the emphasis on an exceptional personality, life story and behaviour. In addition, the various crises that arose were used to reinforce the picture of Obama as charismatic. The findings undermine the idea of a single form of charismatic leadership and provide empirical support for the framework put forward by Steyrer (Organizational Studies 19(5), 807–828, 1998), that various types of charismatic leadership exist: In this study paternalistic, heroic, missionary and majestic are identified. The study contributes to Steyrer’s framework by showing that certain types of charisma occur in different social contexts. The results also suggest that ethics is constructed as a crucial part of charismatic leadership, but the construction of Obama’s charisma in contrast to others raises ethical concerns.     

Narrative construction of expatriate experience and career cycle: discursive patterns in Finnish stories of international

Expatriate experience is not only a disconnected occasion for cross-cultural anxiety and adjustment but also an important event in the process of self-development and learning. Following this view and arguing for a discursive approach, the paper focuses on ways in which expatriates themselves tell and interpret their development and movement across expatriate career cycle. Meaning systems connecting expatriate job with previous and following work experiences in career stories of Finnish engineers and managers were identified using a combination of narrative and discourse analysis. No evidence was found of an autonomous expatriate discourse but, in contrast, expatriate career cycle was narrated using available organizational repertoires of development and career. Describing and discussing the meaning-making properties of three identified discourses - bureaucratic, occupational and enterprising - the paper emphasizes the organizational environment of expatriate experience while acknowledging the limits of these contemporary career vocabularies in addressing individual learning and change in cross-cultural settings.     

Quality of data, information and knowledge in regional foresight processes

A central subcategory of futures research is technology foresight. There is a concern that today's technology foresight processes do not serve technology-political decision-making and strategy processes of companies well enough. The regional level needs to be emphasized, too, and the inclusion of a wide variety of actors and organizations. There is a danger that results of foresight processes are not absorbed into regional strategy-making processes, leading to a “black hole of interpretation and implementation of foresight knowledge”. Particularly knowledge, but also data and information are crucial concepts in foresight processes. An important issue is how to transform foresight information into future-oriented innovation knowledge. Concrete tools and institutional settings to enhance data, information and knowledge quality in foresight processes and strategy work are needed. This article investigates limitations of established foresight processes and planning approaches, limitations in practical utilization of results of foresight processes, and quality of data, information and knowledge as concrete tools and as a systematic response to limitations. The article is partly based on empirical results from a technology foresight survey undertaken in Finland in 2005. The research responds to societal and academic interest by combining the fields of (i) futures research and (ii) data, information and knowledge quality. Future-oriented considerations are not routine tasks, which makes it especially challenging and important to ensure that these processes benefit from data, information and knowledge of good quality.     

Exploring causal relationships in an innovation program with Robust Portfolio Modeling

Many countries seek to foster the commercial exploitation of science-based research results through selective policy instruments. Typically, these instruments involve processes of follow-up data collection where the results of ex ante and ex post assessments are systematically recorded. Yet, several factors – such as the presence of multiple objectives, predominance of qualitative data and missing observations – may complicate the use of such data for adjusting the management practices of these instruments. With the aim of addressing these challenges, we adopt Robust Portfolio Modeling¹ (RPM) as an evaluation framework to the analysis of longitudinal data: specifically, we (i) determine subsets of outperforming and underperforming projects through the development of an explicit multicriteria model for ex post evaluation, and (ii) carry out comparative analyses between these subsets, in order to identify which ex ante interventions and contextual characteristics may have contributed to later performance. We also report experiences from the application of RPM-evaluation to a Finnish innovation program and outline extensions of this approach that provide further decision support to the managers of innovation programs.     

Strategy implementation as fantasising – becoming the leading bank

In this empirical case study we explore the fantasy nature of strategy work and propose fantasising as a framework contributing to the nascent literature dealing with the previously overlooked fantasy nature of strategy. More specifically, our interest is on examining how the meaning of official strategy gets constructed as it is being implemented, as well as and how and why the perceptions may evolve during implementation. Our data consists of official strategy documents and interviews from Finland's largest financial services group and its largest unit. The interviews cover all organisational levels, enabling us to reveal the variations of perceptions of strategy as it is being implemented. The data analysis is carried out by means of qualitative interpretation. According to our findings, the main goal of becoming the leading bank, as outlined in the official strategy, had been adopted throughout the organisation hierarchically. However, conceptions of what would constitute ‘a leading bank’ varied, especially horizontally. The plausibility of the official strategy is constructed through rational techniques (e.g. numerical ‘objective’ accounting information) intertwined with storytelling. As a result we propose that strategy implementation may best be understood as fantasising involving two forms: functional (explicit, short-term-oriented) and symbolic (metaphorical, long-term-oriented). We offer fantasising in these two forms as an addition to fantasy-oriented strategy literature for further exploration to better understand the nature of strategy work.