Youth Wages, Risk, and Tertiary Finance Arrangements*

Human capital earnings functions typically explain a small fraction of the total variation in earnings. The considerable uncertainty associated with expected future earnings streams enhances the desirability of a loans scheme for higher education possessing income contingent characteristics on the repayment side. The Higher Education Contribution Scheme (HECS) possesses this feature The profitability of higher education even after taking account of the HECS suggests there is scope for higher student contributions. Other possible modifications to the HECS include higher repayment rates, a change to the tax base, and a minimum repayment amount     

SMOKE-FREE LAWS AND EMPLOYEE TURNOVER

This study examines how smoke-free laws influence turnover among restaurant workers. The study uses a unique data set of payroll records of a franchisee of a national full-service restaurant chain operating 23 restaurants in the state of Arizona, a state where several communities have adopted smoke-free laws. Municipal smoke-free laws did not, on average, have a statistically significant effect on the probability of employee separation in the years after implementation. These results suggest that training costs associated with employee turnover would not rise for full-service restaurants in municipalities that adopt smoke-free laws. ( JEL I18, J63)     

The Youth Labour Market in Australia*

This paper uses unit record data from the 1985 Australian Longitudinal Survey to review the major features of the youth labour market. It is shown that education plays an important role in determining the incidence of unemployment, wages, hours of work and access to training opportunities. Analyses of labour market dynamics indicates that the probability of leaving unemployment falls off substantially as the duration of the unemployment spell increases. A major conclusion of the paper is that the longer term unemployed appear to be segmented from other labour market participants. An implication of this finding is that there b very little which the longer term unemployed can do at the margin to influence their success other than adopt the most productive method of job search.     

Board Independence and CEO Turnover

This paper analyzes how board independence affects the CEO's ability to extract rents from the firm. The CEO is assumed to possess private information about his ability, which the board needs in order to decide whether to replace him. If the board is more active in removing low quality CEOs, the incumbent is better able to use his information advantage to extract rents. Since the board cannot commit not to renegotiate the contract, a board that is fully independent from the CEO is more active than is efficient ex ante. For this reason, shareholders are better off if the board of directors lacks some independence. The model predicts that a trend toward greater board independence is associated with subsequent trends toward higher CEO turnover, more generous severance packages, and larger stock option grants.     

The Probability of Leaving Unemployment: The Influence of Duration,Destination and Demographics*

This paper examines the influences of a number of demographic characteristics and the duration of unemployment on the probability of leaving unemployment. This probability is found to decrease as the duration of unemployment increases, with married females having the highest probability of exit. Various measures of average completed duration suggest that the longest spells of unemployment are incurred by older males. These appear to be longest for males withdrawing from the labour market. The relationship between the duration of unemployment and the probability of exit is important for labour market policy. Some relevant considerations are also explored in the paper.     

Monetary Policy Inclinations

We examine whether central banks should complement their inflation forecasts with interest rate projections. Introducing a central bank loss function that accounts for deviations from announcements, we incorporate the publication of policy inclinations into a dynamic monetary model. We show that in the presence of cost‐push shocks, the publication of interest rate forecasts tends to improve welfare.     

Social Security Systems,Human Capital,and Growth in a Small Open Economy

We consider a small open economy in which the level of public education funding is determined by popular vote. We show that growth can be enhanced by the introduction of pay‐as‐you‐go pensions even if the growth rate of aggregate wages falls short of the interest rate. The reason is that the pay‐as‐you‐go (PAYG) system allows future retirees to partially internalize positive externalities of public education due to the positive effect of higher future labor productivity on their pension benefits. The majority support for education funding will be especially strong when the PAYG benefit formula is flat, i.e., progressively redistributive. If a flat benefit PAYG pension system is in place then the economy will achieve the highest growth rate relative to the alternative pension system designs. While such PAYG pension system may be opposed by the majority of working individuals due to inferior returns to their pension contributions relative to a funded scheme, it is likely to be politically sustained by a coalition of older individuals and lower income workers.     

Information Content of Wages and Monetary Policy

We examine whether it is sufficient for central banks to observe and forecast nominal variables only. Analyzing the interplay of wage-setting unions and a central bank we show that although central banks may not gain more information by directly acquiring data about indicators of real shocks in the economy, such activities are nevertheless beneficial for central banks and yield lower social losses. Moreover, the extent of research activities by central banks should depend on the process of union formation.     

Economic Progress in Australia: An Analysis of Occupational Mobility*

Educational attainment and gender are firmly established in the labour economics literature as key determinants of an individual's economic standing at a given point in time. The concern of the present paper is to determine the impact of these characteristics on economic progress over time. A multinomial logit approach to estimating occupational attainment at various career points is employed. The use of this method of analysis in conjunction with the intertemporal linking of occupations enables us to provide a number of important insights into economic progress in the Australian labour market. Additional years of education are shown to increase the probability of employment in better jobs at the time of labour market entry and also to enhance career mobility. Analysis of male-female differences highlights the sizeable gap between the occupational distributions of these groups. Part of this difference may reflect inequality of opportunity between males and females in the Australian labour market.