Why do merger premiums vary across industries and over time?

We identify time-varying industry and macroeconomic factors that explain the observed variation in takeover premiums over time. Results support our hypotheses that some industry and economic factors can increase the growth prospects in an industry, which boosts expected synergies and/or demand for the target firm, and therefore increases the merger premiums. Merger premiums are higher when the target's corresponding industry experiences higher growth, has more research and development (a proxy for expected growth), and has less dispersion in performance among firms within the industry. Merger premiums are also positively related to capital liquidity, which can enhance economic growth and competition for target firms, and positively related to volatility in economic growth, which affect merger waves and the demand for target firms over time.     

THE REGULATION OF MORTGAGE SERVICING: LESSONS FROM THE FINANCIAL CRISIS

Pivotal litigation against the largest subprime mortgage servicer in the United States provides lessons about the appropriate regulation of mortgage servicing and adds to research about the causes of the financial crisis. Mortgage servicing is essential to the functioning of the financial system so servicers must be held to a high standard. The litigation revealed egregious practices but was settled quickly for a nominal amount and provided the servicer a very broad release of liability, allowing it to expand without correcting serious problems, and created significant wealth gains for the parent firm. Regulatory authority should not be split between agencies. (JEL G28, G21, K40)     

Common risk factors in bank stocks

This paper provides evidence on the risk factors that are priced in bank equities. Alternative empirical models with precedent in the nonfinancial asset pricing literature are tested, including the single-factor CAPM, three-factor Fama–French model, and ICAPM. Our empirical results indicate that an unconditional two-factor ICAPM model that includes the stock market excess return and shocks to the slope of the yield curve is useful in explaining the cross-section of bank stock returns. However, we find no evidence that firm specific factors such as size and book-to-market ratios are priced in bank stock returns. These results have a number of important implications for the estimation of the banks’ cost of capital as well as regulatory initiatives to utilize market discipline to evaluate bank risk under Basel II.     

The stock market’s reaction to macroeconomic news under ambiguity

Financial Markets and Portfolio Management - We investigate the quality of the information that macroeconomic news conveys to the stock market about future business conditions. Our econometric...     

Brain reading social action

What mechanism guides the social researcher in inferring a choice of action from particular beliefs and desires of the agent or in reconstructing the beliefs and desires that caused an action? Through the identification process, the researcher should be able to intercept the inferential principles guiding the agent, even when those principles differ from his own. As when dealing with members of other cultures or other psychic groups, the researcher should quarantine his own principles of inferential rationality and identify those of the agent. Cognitive simulation and empathic identification are the necessary premise to understand an action and generalize it into an ideal type representing aggregate social behavior or a social phenomenon. Brain research may contribute to the knowledge of the mechanisms involved in analyzing social action. In particular, mirror neuron theory can supply an interesting explanation of the automatic simulation in mind reading and of the processes involved in empathy and verstehen.     

Ambiguity and risk factors in bank stocks

The determinants of banks' cost of equity are not well understood. We depart from prior work assuming rational expectations and instead explore the impact of Knightian uncertainty or ambiguity on bank stocks. We test a large set of asset pricing models and find that investors' lack of confidence in both the drift and correlation structure driving bank stock returns affects banks' cost of capital. We also investigate the economic relation among ambiguity, market liquidity, and banks' capital shortfall, which reveals the transmission channels through which ambiguity may increase the probability of a systemic crisis. Our findings have implications for macroprudential policy.