Motives in the Acquisitions of NASDAQ Targets during the Aftermath of the 1987 Crash

After the crash of 1987, the Nasdaq composite index stayed below the precrash level for nearly two years. Takeover activity surged in this after‐crash period. We compare the motives in the acquisitions of Nasdaq targets during the after‐crash period with those in the ten‐year period before the crash. We find that the announcement period return to acquirers and the proportion of acquirers with positive gains declines in the after‐crash period. For both the periods, agency is the motive for takeovers that have negative total gains (acquirer + target), but synergy and hubris are comotives for takeovers that have positive total gains. The proportion of takeovers in which the managers of acquirers act against the interest of the shareholders increases after the crash.     

Automatic extraction of 1D barcodes from video scans for drone-assisted inventory management in warehousing applications

The widespread use of barcodes has significantly contributed to accurate, efficient and economic inventory management in warehouses and distribution centres. However, its efficiency has always been limited by the primary method of reading barcodes with a handheld laser scanner. Compared with this reading by line-of-sight at close proximity, vision-based barcode reading algorithms can further improve efficiency, particularly if accompanied by automated data collection platforms such as drones. This paper introduces algorithms that are able to automatically extract barcodes from video data, and verifies their feasibility and promise for inventory management in warehousing applications. Three key techniques corresponding to different recognition levels are proposed: For a known barcode region, a Harris corner detector and Hough transform-based algorithm is applied to quickly estimate the angle by which the frame area needs to rotate to orient the bars vertically for information extraction. Then, the idea of exploiting connectivity and geometry property of barcode areas is proposed to directly recognise multiple barcode regions in a single video frame to eliminate reading difficulties resulting from interactive influence of multiple juxtaposed barcodes, and to save computation time by only processing frame areas of interest for valid barcodes. In addition, a histogram difference-based fast extraction strategy is designed to further improve efficiency by reducing duplicate information processing. Finally, the performance of each technique is evaluated by analysing video data from a large logistics warehouse, demonstrating satisfactory performance in inventory management applications.     

Chicago's water market: dynamics of demand,prices and scarcity rents

Chicago and its suburbs are experiencing an increasing demand for water from a growing population and economy and may experience water scarcity in the near future. The Chicago metropolitan area has nearly depleted its groundwater resources to a point where interstate conflicts with Wisconsin could accompany an increased reliance on those sources. Further, the withdrawals from Lake Michigan is limited by the Supreme Court decree. The growing demand and indications of possible scarcity suggest a need to reexamine the pricing policies and the dynamics of demand. The study analyses the demand for water and develops estimates of scarcity rents for water in Chicago. The price and income elasticities computed at the means are -0.002 and 0.0002 respectively. The estimated scarcity rents ranges from $0.98 to $1.17 per thousand gallons. The results indicate that the current prices do not fully account for the scarcity rents and suggest a current rate with in the range $1.53 to $1.72 per thousand gallons.     

Structural models of complementary choices

This article reviews the rapidly growing literature on structural models of complementary choices. It discusses recent modeling developments and identifies promising areas for future research.     

Investor relations,information asymmetry and market value

Evidence to date on the market value of investor relations (IR) strategies is limited. We test the market relevance of IR activity directly employing a proprietary database measuring IR quality across all firms listed on NYSE, Amex and NASDAQ. Although, in theory, ‘repackaging’ and communicating existing information should have no market impact, we find that firms with higher quality IR strategies are rewarded with significantly higher valuation multiples. In addition, increase in IR quality is associated with increases in analyst following and liquidity. Overall, our findings are generally stronger for small firms which are more likely to be ‘neglected’. Our evidence is consistent with effective IR successfully raising firm visibility leading to enhanced recognition and reduced information asymmetry in line with Merton (1987 Merton, R., 1987. A simple model of capital market equilibrium with incomplete information. Journal of Finance, 42 (3), 483–510. doi: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1987.tb04565.x[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and thus ‘fairer’ firm valuation as argued by IR professionals.     

Functional income distribution and effective demand in India: An applied post Keynesian model

This article is an attempt to understand the relationship between functional income distribution and aggregate demand in India. To this end, the article (a) highlights trends in growth and class distribution of income in India; (b) constructs a post Keynesian macro model that links short run growth with profit share, where the latter is itself driven by movements in output and real exchange rate; (c) discusses and, wherever required, estimates key parameters relevant to the Indian case; and (d) simulates the model and discusses the effect of shocks to distributive as well as autonomous demand variables on growth performance. The article finds that, although a possibility of wage-led growth in India cannot be ruled out, by and large, distributive shocks do not have a strong impact on output growth. On the other hand, an increase in public expenditure growth, although it has a strong effect on output growth, tilts income distribution toward profit earners. A comprehensive agenda involving greater public expenditure and higher wages to stimulate growth and improve distribution is therefore recommended.     

Comparing the performance of market-based and accounting-based bankruptcy prediction models

Recently developed corporate bankruptcy prediction models adopt a contingent claims valuation approach. However, despite their theoretical appeal, tests of their performance compared with traditional simple accounting-ratio-based approaches are limited in the literature. We find the two approaches capture different aspects of bankruptcy risk, and while there is little difference in their predictive ability in the UK, the z-score approach leads to significantly greater bank profitability in conditions of differential decision error costs and competitive pricing regime.     

Behavioural Bias and Conflicts of Interest in Analyst Stock Recommendations

Abstract:  This paper tests whether sell-side analysts are prone to behavioural errors when making stock recommendations as well as the impact of investment banking relationships on their judgments. In particular, we analyse their report narratives for evidence of cognitive bias. We find first that new buy recommendations on average have no investment value whereas new sell recommendations do, and take time to be assimilated by the market. We also show that new buy recommendations are distinguished from new sells both by the level of analyst optimism and representativeness bias as well as with increased conflicts of interest. Successful new buy recommendations are characterised by lower prior returns, value stock status, smaller firms and weaker investment banking relationships. On the other hand, successful new sells do not differ from their unsuccessful counterparts in terms of these measures. As such, we provide evidence that analysts are prone both to behavioural bias as well as potential conflicts of interest in their new buy stock recommendation decisions. We also show that these two explanations of analyst behaviour are to a great extent independent of each other. Consequently, the recent attempts by regulators to address potential conflicts of interest in analyst behaviour may have only limited impact.     

THE TWO-STATE INTEREST RATE MODEL FOR PRICING BONDS: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS

The two-state interest rate model is evaluated on the basis of its ability to price samples of government bonds. Its accuracy is shown to be comparable to that of a sophisticated continuous time model.     

Macroeconomics of directed credit reforms in India

This paper develops a theoretical framework to evaluate directed credit reforms in India. It formulates a post-Keynesian/structuralist macro model that incorporates key features of the Indian banking system. The model divides the economy into a demand constrained industrial sector and a credit constrained agricultural sector. The model shows that directed credit reforms tighten agricultural credit and output, erode real wages by increasing the agricultural price and reduce industrial demand. Inflation also picks up on account of real wage resistance. This paper, therefore, has a close affinity with existing accounts that warn against the stagflationary consequences of financial liberalisation.