The pricing of initial public offerings: tests of adverse-selection and signaling theories

We test the empirical implications of several models of IPOunderpricing. Consistent with the winner's-curse hypothesis,we show that in markets where investors know a priori that theydo not have to compete with informed investors, IPOs are notunderpriced. We also show that IPOs underwritten by reputableinvestment banks experience significantly less underpricingand perform significantly better in the long run. We do notfind empirical support for the signaling models that try toexplain why firms underprice. In fact, we find that (1) firmsthat underprice more return to the reissue market less frequently,and for lesser amounts, than firms that underprice less, and(2) firms that underprice less experience bigger earnings andpay higher dividends, contrary to the models' predictions.     

THE PROPERTIES OF CYCLES IN SOUTH AFRICAN FINANCIAL VARIABLES AND THEIR RELATION TO THE BUSINESS CYCLE

The paper describes cyclicality in a range of local and international financial variables and their relation to cyclical behaviour in the South African real economy. Cycles are derived using a dating algorithm similar to that used to determine business cycle turning points and falls within the Burns‐Mitchell tradition of business cycle analysis. Co‐movement between phases in financial variables and similar phases in the business cycle are described using the concordance statistic, instead of the correlation statistic (which requires stationarity). This is a preliminary step in identifying financial variables that can act as leading indicators of economic activity.     

Notes on 'a code for fiscal stability'

This note comments on two central issues for fiscal policy designin the UK, highlighted in the recent 'Code for Fiscal Stability'proposed by the new Labour government. The first concerns themerits of the so-called 'golden rule of public sector investment'- the proposition that, over the cycle, government borrowingshould not exceed government (net) capital formation. The secondconcerns the case for attempting to construct a more comprehensivebalance sheet of public sector assets and liabilities, includingtangible public sector assets and certain contingent claims.The two main conclusions are that the golden rule is withoutmerit but that, subject to some important caveats, the constructionof a more comprehensive government balance sheet is a worthwhileenterprise.