Borders and Growth

This paper presents a framework to understand and measure the effects of political borders on economic growth and per capita income levels. In our model, political integration between two countries results in a positive country size effect and a negative effect through reduced openness vis-à-vis the rest of the world. Additional effects stem from possible changes in other growth determinants, besides country size and openness, when countries are merged. We estimate the growth effects that would have resulted from the hypothetical removal of national borders between pairs of adjacent countries under various scenarios. We identify country pairs where political integration would have been mutually beneficial. We find that full political integration would have slightly reduced an average country's growth rate, while most countries would benefit from a more limited form of merger, involving higher economic integration with their neighbors.     

Ancestry and development: New evidence

We revisit the relationship between ancestral distance and barriers to the diffusion of development by replicating previous results with a new genomic dataset on human microsatellite variation. We find a statistically and economically significant effect of ancestral distance from the technological frontier on income per capita. The historical pattern of the effect is hump shaped, peaking between 1870 and 1913, and declining steeply afterwards. This suggests that ancestral distance acts as a temporary barrier to the diffusion of development. We also find that ancestral distance from the frontier is a barrier to the spread of specific technologies and institutions in modern times.     

Measuring the Dynamic Gains from Trade

This article investigates the links between trade policy andeconomic growth in a panel of 57 countries between 1970 and1989. It develops a new measure of trade policy openness basedon the policy component of trade shares, using it in a simultaneousequations system to identify the effect of trade policy on severaldeterminants of growth. The results suggest a positive impactof openness on economic growth, with the accelerated accumulationof physical capital accounting for more than half the totaleffect; enhanced technology transmission and improvements inmacroeconomic policy account for smaller effects. This decompositionis robust with respect to alternative specifications and timeperiods. The article also successfully tests whether the modelexhaustively captures the effects of trade policy on growth.     

Death and development

Analyzing a variety of cross-national and sub-national data, we argue that high adult mortality reduces economic growth by shortening time horizons. Paying careful attention to the age pattern of mortality and to endogeneity issues, we find that a greater risk of death during the prime productive years is associated with higher levels of risky behavior, higher fertility, and lower investment in physical capital, even when controlling for infant mortality. In our regressions, adult mortality explains almost all of Africa’s growth tragedy. This analysis underscores grim forecasts of the long-run economic costs of the ongoing AIDS epidemic. Most of the work for this paper was completed prior to the tragic passing away of our dear friend and colleague John McMillan in March of 2007.     

Fractionalization

We provide new measures of ethnic, linguistic, and religious fractionalization for about 190 countries. These measures are more comprehensive than those previously used in the economics literature and we compare our new variables with those previously used. We also revisit the question of the effects of ethnic, linguistic, and religious heterogeneity on the quality of institutions and growth. We partly confirm and partly modify previous results. The patterns of cross-correlations between potential explanatory variables and their different degree of endogeneity makes it hard to make unqualified statements about competing explanations for economic growth and the quality of government. Our new data, which features the underlying group structure of ethnicities, religions and languages, also allows the computation of alternative measures of heterogeneity, and we turn to measures of polarization as an alternative to the commonly used index of fractionalization.     

A Monte Carlo study of growth regressions

Using Monte Carlo simulations, this paper evaluates the bias properties of estimators commonly used to estimate growth regressions derived from the Solow model. We explicitly allow for measurement error, country-specific fixed effects and regressor endogeneity. An OLS estimator applied to a single cross-section of variables averaged over time (the between estimator) performs best in terms of the extent of bias on each of the estimated coefficients. Fixed-effects and the Arellano–Bond GMM estimator overstate the speed of convergence under a wide variety of assumptions, while the between estimator understates it. Finally, fixed effects and Arellano–Bond bias towards zero the slope estimates on the human and physical capital accumulation variables, while the between estimator and the Blundell–Bond system GMM estimator bias these coefficients upwards.      

The democratic transition

Over the last two centuries, many countries experienced regime transitions toward democracy. We document this democratic transition over a long time horizon. We use historical time series of income, education and democracy levels from 1870 to 2000 to explore the economic factors associated with rising levels of democracy. We find that primary schooling, and to a weaker extent per capita income levels, are strong determinants of the quality of political institutions. We find little evidence of causality running the other way, from democracy to income or education.