STOCK MARKET CRASH AND EXPECTATIONS OF AMERICAN HOUSEHOLDS

This paper utilizes data on subjective probabilities to study the impact of the stock market crash of 2008 on households' expectations about the returns on the stock market index. We use data from the Health and Retirement Study that was fielded in February 2008 through February 2009. The effect of the crash is identified from the date of the interview, which is shown to be exogenous to previous stock market expectations. We estimate the effect of the crash on the population average of expected returns, the population average of the uncertainty about returns (subjective standard deviation), and the cross-sectional heterogeneity in expected returns (disagreement). We show estimates from simple reduced-form regressions on probability answers as well as from a more structural model that focuses on the parameters of interest and separates survey noise from relevant heterogeneity. We find a temporary increase in the population average of expectations and uncertainty right after the crash. The effect on cross-sectional heterogeneity is more significant and longer lasting, which implies substantial long-term increase in disagreement. The increase in disagreement is larger among the stockholders, the more informed, and those with higher cognitive capacity, and disagreement co-moves with trading volume and volatility in the market.     

Reviews

Retirement Communities: An American Original, by Michael E. Hunt, Allan G. Feldt, Robert W. Morans, Leon A. Pastalan, and Kathleen L. Vakalo. New York: Haworth Press. 1984. ISBN 0–86656–267–2. 278 pp. $29.95.

Senior Settlers: Social Integration in Retirement Communities, by Nancy J. Osgood. New York: Praeger Publishers, 1982. ISBN 0–03–059792–7. 296 pp. $29.95.

Life After Work: Retirement, Leisure, Recreation, and the Elderly, ed. Nancy J. Osgood. New York: Praeger Publishers. 1982. ISBN 0–03–060437–0. 372 pp. $32.95.

Work and Retirement, by Stanley Parker. London: George Allen & Unwin. 1982. ISBN 0–04–658238‐X. 203 pp. $9.95 paper, $28.50, cloth.

Adults and Their Leisure: The Need for Lifelong Learning, by John R. Verduin, Jr., and Douglas N. McEwen. Springfield, Ill: Charles C. Thomas. 1984. ISBN 0–398–04985–8. 170 pp. $17.50.     

Estimating Facility Size for Variable or Uncertain Activity Levels

In this article, we propose a model and methodology for valuing the option to delay network investment decisions and calculating cost-based access prices. We model the value of the option to invest in each network element as a function of two stochastic variables: the flow of total variable profit from the service provided by the network element and the cost of new investment in that network element. We calculate the option value multiple to be applied to the investment cost component of three main network elements, conduct sensitivity analyses, and highlight key findings.     

Breaking through barriers to successful empowerment.

In today's ever-changing environment, most companies are undergoing some kind of transformation, whether it is implementing new information systems, reengineering manufacturing methods, rightsizing, tackling paradigms, or simply dealing with demand changes. This transformation often is difficult based on old ways of managing the most important corporate asset-people. Many companies have initiated the processes of team building and people empowerment, but few are able to permeate an entire organization with these concepts. This presentation will provide the successful methods that certain organizations are using to create empowered individuals and teams, and discuss proven techniques for implementing these ideas and ensuring success.     

The Role of the Global Reporting Initiative's Sustainability Reporting Guidelines in the Social Screening of Investments

Social screening of investments calls not only for investment policy and criteria, but also for information about companies, their policies, practices and performance. The Global Reporting Initiative (GRI) and its June 2000 Sustainability Reporting Guidelines have the potential to significantly improve the usefulness and quality of information reported by companies about their environmental, social and economic impacts and performance. The GRI aims to develop a voluntary reporting framework that will elevate sustainability reporting practices to a level equivalent to that of financial reporting in rigour, comparability, auditability and general acceptance. This will be a welcome and efficient supplement to the questionnaires, interviews, press releases, media reports and other sources of information traditionally used for screening in investment decision making – social/ethical and mainstream. The Dow Jones Sustainability Group Index, the Jantzi Social Index and the Innovest EcoValue'21 analytical platform, together with the SRI community, are all likely to benefit from GRI-style sustainability reports. One of the GRI's key challenges is to accommodate the broad variety of disclosure needs and expectations of a wide range of report users and company stakeholders. To maximize the usefulness of the GRI Guidelines, report users, including the SRI community, need to be engaged in the process of developing and refining the Guidelines over time. The GRI Guidelines are emerging as an important instrument in enabling companies to communicate with their stakeholders about performance and accountability beyond just the financial bottom line.     

Motives for a secular pilgrimage to the Gallipoli battlefields

Pilgrimage is a journey to a non-substitutable site embodying the highly valued, the deeply meaningful, or a source of core identity for the traveller. Secular pilgrimage is an important yet under-researched sector of the tourism industry. Where the motives for religious pilgrimage are well documented, little is known of the motives for secular pilgrimages. This paper presents the results of an empirical investigation of one case of secular pilgrimage, the journey of Australians and New Zealanders to the Gallipoli battlefields in Turkey. Five distinct motives for visits to the pilgrimage site are identified – spiritual, nationalistic, family pilgrimage, friendship and travel motives – and differences in their importance noted across seven visitor groups. These motives share some commonality with the motives for religious pilgrimage, and conversely, with the motives for leisure tourism; yet, other motives are unique to the secular pilgrimage. Suggestions for future research on secular pilgrimage are provided.     

The case for process approaches in loyalty research in tourism

The article reviews the literature on loyalty in consumer behaviour with particular emphasis on the difficulties of interpreting repeat purchasing in terms of loyalty. Problems of conceptual definition and measurement are examined in the context of tourism. A case is made for seeing the concept of loyalty as a process rather than as a state. In this respect two approaches related to information processing are suggested as possible research approaches. Psychological cost‐benefit technique and methods associated with optimum stimulation level are discussed. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatial Planning and Transport in London and the South East—Can Policy Co-Ordination and Delivery be Achieved?

The railway system in London and the south east is fundamental to London in its roles as the capital of the country and as a world-class financial and business centre. This article examines the formal strategies for spatial planning and railway investment in London and the south east and shows that there is a distinct dichotomy between spatial and transport planning. The authors explain the key investments needed in the network. They call for the Government to demonstrate how land use planning and transport investment are dovetailed together and properly funded, and for the Strategic Rail Authority to act more in concert with regional and local interests.