Coverage area expansion, customer switching, and household profiles in the Japanese broadband access market

This paper examines the diffusion process of Internet broadband access in Japan by modeling the household choice of access modes. Estimates reveal that the characteristics of users, rather than those of the access modes, play a significant role in demand substitution across the modes. Simulation exercises indicate that had optic fibers (fiber-to-the-home; FTTH) been made available to the whole country in 2005, only 10% of households would have switched to that mode. This result implies that once chosen, the household choice of access mode persists, and that indirect network effects are an important element in decisions to adopt the new technology of broadband. Finally, policy implications are discussed.     

Oligopolistic equilibrium and financial constraints

We model a dynamic duopoly in which firms can potentially drive their rivals from the market. For some parameter values, the Cournot equilibrium outcome cannot be sustained in an infinitely repeated setting. In those cases, there is a Markov perfect equilibrium in mixed strategies in which one firm, eventually, will exit the market with probability one. Producer surplus in the maximum collusive outcome is greater under bankruptcy consideration, because the outcome that maximizes joint profits is skewed in favor of the more efficient firm. Consumer surplus and social welfare also increase in many cases, although those effects are generally ambiguous.     

The Choice Between Flexible Exchange Rates, Capital Control and the Currency Board in Asian Countries: A Perspective from the "Impossible Trinity"

We attempt to compare adjustment costs under exchange rate regimes in East Asian economies during their recovery processes. The criteria are the degree of overshooting in exchange rates, the changes in country risks, and the severity and duration of the recovery processes. Linear ranking is difficult. Managed rates with capital control worked for macroeconomic performance despite the welfare loss due to blocking capital flows. The currency board system worked well for stability, but recent experiences of Argentina and Hong Kong were deflationary. Under flexible rates, many economies that received IMF grants suffered a drastic initial downturn but later recovered vigorously. JEL Classification Numbers: F31, F32, F33.     

The recent process of job polarization in Japan: evidence from 1980 to 2010

This study investigates the recent process of job polarization in Japan. We focus on three particular aspects: the relationship with business cycles, total hours rather than employment and age cohorts. We find that, regardless of whether the focus is employment or total hours, job polarization is concentrated in recessions and that job polarization has occurred mainly in younger-age cohorts.     

The Impact of the Automatic Balancing Mechanism for the Public Pension in Japan on the Extreme Elderly

Abstract

Most developed countries are seeking ways to maintain a sustainable social security system. Japan is no exception. The old-age dependency ratio in Japan is currently 35% and is expected to be 74% in 2050. Recently the Japanese government has adopted an automatic balancing mechanism, which gradually reduces the real price of the public pension through a reduction of inflation adjustments. The reduction, depending on future demographics, is a random process, so the elderly, in particular the extreme elderly, have to take the risk of receiving an inadequate public pension. The objectives of this paper are threefold. First, we review the recent trends in Japanese mortality and explain the underlying longevity issues that led to the automatic balancing mechanism. Second, by means of stochastic mortality and fertility modeling, we analyze how demographic changes will affect the future of public pensions in Japan. Third, we demonstrate, on the basis of the stochastic projections we made, how the automatic balancing mechanism will affect the financial security for people who live beyond age 100.     

How to Fight Hard Core Cartels? Comments on Collusion in Industrial Economics

Industrial economics has successfully clarified the mechanism of collusive conduct and its facilitating factors. But policy implications for remedial actions are less straightforward. This paper provides some supplementary comments from the viewpoint of enforcement issues against price-fixing agreements. There are some disagreements among practitioners concerning the probative value of circumstantial (or economic) evidence. Information exchange may be a possible clue to elucidate the evidentiary standard. On the other hand, there seems to be a unanimous agreement, if appropriately designed, on the desirability of leniency programs. Necessity of leniency programs must be a reflection of stricter standard of proof in court decisions, resource constraints of antitrust enforcer, or increasingly defensive acts of conspirators.     

人民币国际化的现状和展望

2009年7月,中国当局允许在跨境贸易中使用人民币结算。之后跨境贸易人民币结算量迅速增长,可以说人民币的国际化迈出了一大步。但就目前来看,人民币结算仅限于经常项目和一部分资本项目,尽管人民币交易在香港已较自由,但达到国际化程度还尚须时日。中国当局允许跨境贸易人民币结算的目的之一是摆脱过度依赖美元。在人民币完全实现国际化之前,推动货币多元化是一种次善之策,而日中间贸易结算使用日元对两国也是一种选择。     

The Interdependent Telecommunications Demand and Efficient Price Structure

Rapid growth of mobile telecommunications is a widespread phenomenon in the world. This emerging network is supposed to be closely interdependent with the wire-based network. In this paper, after reviewing the Japanese regulatory scheme for mobile telecommunications, we investigate the interdependency by estimating both price elasticities and network effects among them. The own-price elasticities are relatively high, and the substitution, as well as the network, effect is substantial. Moreover, the resulting super-elasticities of mobile telephones are consistently larger than those of fixed-line telephones. These findings indicate that the Ramsey optimal price structure may have required a lower price–cost margin of mobile networks, relative to that of fixed-line networks. It should be noted, however, that the difference in super-elasticity between the two networks seems to have substantially diminished during our sample period. J. Japan. Int. Econ., December 1999, 13(4), pp. 311–335. Shinshu University, Nagano 390-8621, Japan and InfoCom Research Institute, Tokyo 107-0062, Japan. Copyright 1999 Academic Press.Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: D12, L43, L96.