Procedures for revising management judgments forecasts

Forecast improvement is often approached by attempting to find the “best” model for a given situation. Less attention has been paid to the possibility of examining past prediction errors for patterns that may suggest forecast adjustments for the future. This empirical study involves one firm’s management judgment forecasts for product sales and the attempts made to improve their accuracy by removing certain types of bias. In three of the five series examined, error reduction averaging close to thirty percent occurs as a result of the adjustment procedure. The other two series proved to be relatively free from bias and were therefore not in need of the correction method described.     

Supply Chain Management Competency and Firm Financial Success

Supply chain management (SCM) plays a major role in creating (or destroying) shareholder value by influencing the three major drivers of firm financial performance: revenue, operating costs, and working capital. Yet, the relationship between SCM competency and firm financial performance is not well‐established. Drawing on the resource‐based view of the firm, this study assesses this relationship using Delphi‐style opinion data from AMR Research’s Supply Chain Top 25 rankings to assess SCM competency and Altman’s (1968) Z‐score statistic as the measure of financial success. The study findings show that firms recognized by industry experts for SCM competency have significantly higher Z‐scores than their close competitors and industry averages.     

Personal value systems of Japanese trainees and managers in a changing competitive system

A study of personal values held by Japanese and foreign students, trainees and managers showed recent Japanese trainees slightly more conservative than their 1979 cohorts. Foreign students and foreign managers held more pro-American work values than either Japanese managers or trainees. Finally, for the Japanese respondents, there was some evidence of specific shifts away from the Japanese employment system in the areas of thenenko compensation and promotion systems in their organisations.Roy J. Adams is a Professor of Industrial Relations in McMaster University; Richard B. Peterson is a Professor of Management and Organization in the University of Washington; Hermann F. Schwind is an Associate Professor in St. Mary's University.     

Reviews

TECS AND SMALL FIRMS.

Curran, J. 1993: TECs and Small Firms: Can TECs Reach The Small Firms Other Strategies Have Failed To Reach? Kingston University.

URBAN PLANNING TODAY.

Rydin, Y. 1993: The British Planning System: An Introduction. London: MacMillan, £14.99, paper, 404pp.

COMMUNITY PARTNERSHIP.

Macfarlane, R. and Laville, J-L1993: Developing Community Partnerships in Europe. London: Directory of Social Change/Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation, £12.95.

LOCAL LABOUR.

Campbell, M. and Duffy, K. 1992: Local Labour Markets: Problems and Policies. Harlow: Longman, £22.00, paper.

MARGINAL REGIONS.

Flogenfeldt, T., Hansen, J.C., Nordgreen, R. and Rohr, J.M. (eds) 1993: Conditions for Development in Marginal Regions, Proceedings of the XI International Seminar on Marginal Regions August 1991, Oppland College, Norway, Price NKr. 300, paper.

MARGINAL REGIONS.

Flogenfeldt, T., Hansen, J.C., Nordgreen, R. and Rohr, J.M. (eds) 1993: Conditions for Development in Marginal Regions, Proceedings of the XI International Seminar on Marginal Regions August 1991, Oppland College, Norway, Price NKr. 300, paper.