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1.
A play-the-winner-type urn design with reduced variability 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Anastasia Ivanova 《Metrika》2003,58(1):1-13
We propose a new adaptive allocation rule, the drop-the-loser, that randomizes subjects in the course of a trial comparing
treatments with dichotomous outcomes. The rule tends to assign more patients to better treatments with the same limiting proportion
as the randomized play-the-winner rule. The new design has significantly less variable allocation proportion than the randomized
play-the-winner rule. Decrease in variability translates into a gain in statistical power. For some values of success probabilities
the drop-the-loser rule has a double advantage over conventional equal allocation in that it has better power and assigns
more subjects to the better treatment.
Acknowledgments. I thank Stephen Durham, the associate editor, and the referees for their helpful suggestions. 相似文献
2.
Salim Lahmiri Stelios Bekiros Anastasia Giakoumelou Frank Bezzina 《International Journal of Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance & Management》2020,27(1):3-9
Financial data classification plays an important role in investment and banking industry with the purpose to control default risk, improve cash and select the best customers. Ensemble learning and classification systems are becoming gradually more applied to classify financial data where outputs from different classification systems are combined. The objective of this research is to assess the relative performance of existing state‐of‐the‐art ensemble learning and classification systems with applications to corporate bankruptcy prediction and credit scoring. The considered ensemble systems include AdaBoost, LogitBoost, RUSBoost, subspace, and bagging ensemble system. The experimental results from three datasets: one is composed of quantitative attributes, one encompasses qualitative data, and another one combines both quantitative and qualitative attributes. By using ten‐fold cross‐validation method, the experimental results show that AdaBoost is effective in terms of low classification error, limited complexity, and short time processing of the data. In addition, the experimental results show that ensemble classification systems outperform existing models that were recently validated on the same databases. Therefore, ensemble classification system can be employed to increase the reliability and consistency of financial data classification task. 相似文献
3.
The present paper is a case study of the remittance behavior of immigrants in Greece. In addition to some of the usual factors affecting remittance behavior, it examines five factors than have received little attention in the literature: relative deprivation, existence of property in the country of origin, expectation on inheritance, stability of employment, and more than one migrant in the family. We use Heckman's selection model with survey data from 607 immigrants. Significant factors for the decision to remit are the existence of children living with the migrant, stability of employment, and gender. The basic factors affecting the size of remittances are the level of income, the existence of children living with the migrant, and the length of time in Greece. 相似文献
4.
We propose a new method for estimating dynamic panel data models with selection. The method uses backward substitution for the lagged dependent variable, which leads to an estimating equation that requires correcting for contemporaneous selection only. The estimator is valid under relatively weak assumptions about errors and permits avoiding the weak instruments problem associated with differencing. We also propose a simple test for selection bias that is based on the addition of a selection term to the first‐difference equation and subsequent testing for significance of this term. The methods are applied to estimating dynamic earnings equations for women. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
5.
Nadine Grass 《Heilberufe》2010,62(9):18-19
H?ufigkeit, Risikofaktoren, Symptome - Wenn Babys und Kleinkinder die
Nahrungsaufnahme boykottieren, sind die Eltern zurecht besorgt und suchen Hilfe
beim Kinderarzt. Als Risikogruppe gelten insbesondere Frühgeborene. Weshalb
gerade sie betroffen sind, wurde in einer Studie in Gie?en untersucht. 相似文献
6.
It is well known that the right location of shopping centres is of paramount importance. Unless stores succeed in attracting their own clientele, they rely to a large extent on the impulse behaviour of shoppers. To evaluate alternative locations, models of pedestrian behaviour may be useful. Modern technologies such as GPS and RFID offer new possibilities providing data on routes and stops, which are required as input for such models. An automatic interpretation of GPS tracers with respect to the activities being conducted could enhance the applicability of such technologies to retail management applications. This paper reviews this rapidly growing literature, and shows how automatic data imputation can be established by using Bayesian belief networks and how GPS traces can be fused with land use data of retail location. 相似文献
7.
Gunnar Grass 《Accounting & Finance》2012,52(3):831-848
I quantify the effects of conglomeration on credit risk by first computing theoretical default probabilities for conglomerates and their hypothetical stand‐alone counterparts and then mapping them into physical probabilities using a comprehensive database of corporate failures. Comparing the credit risk of conglomerates with that of hypothetical stand‐alone firms, I report significant reductions in the annual probability of default for small firms. My results support the proposition that managers can have a strong incentive to engage in conglomeration, even if it reduces shareholder value and show for which firms this is the case. 相似文献
8.
William A. Brock Gustav Engström Dieter Grass Anastasios Xepapadeas 《Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control》2013,37(12):2371-2396
In a general equilibrium model of the world economy, we develop a two-dimensional energy balance climate model featuring heat diffusion and anthropogenic forcing driven by global fossil fuel use across the sphere of the Earth. This introduces an endogenous location dependent temperature function, driving spatial characteristics, in terms of location dependent damages resulting from local temperature anomalies into the standard climate-economy framework. We solve the social planner's problem and characterize the competitive equilibrium for two polar cases differentiated by the degree of market integration. We define optimal taxes on fossil fuel use and how they may implement the planning solution. Our results suggest that if the implementation of international transfers across latitudes is not possible then optimal taxes are in general spatially non-homogeneous and may be lower at poorer latitudes. The degree of spatial differentiation of optimal taxes depends on heat transportation. By employing the properties of the spatial model, we show by numerical simulations how the impact of thermal transport across latitudes on welfare can be studied. 相似文献
9.
We consider estimation of panel data models with sample selection when the equation of interest contains endogenous explanatory variables as well as unobserved heterogeneity. Assuming that appropriate instruments are available, we propose several tests for selection bias and two estimation procedures that correct for selection in the presence of endogenous regressors. The tests are based on the fixed effects two-stage least squares estimator, thereby permitting arbitrary correlation between unobserved heterogeneity and explanatory variables. The first correction procedure is parametric and is valid under the assumption that the errors in the selection equation are normally distributed. The second procedure estimates the model parameters semiparametrically using series estimators. In the proposed testing and correction procedures, the error terms may be heterogeneously distributed and serially dependent in both selection and primary equations. Because these methods allow for a rather flexible structure of the error variance and do not impose any nonstandard assumptions on the conditional distributions of explanatory variables, they provide a useful alternative to the existing approaches presented in the literature. 相似文献
10.
A Crisis of the Overcrowded Future: Shadow Banking and the Political Economy of Financial Innovation
Anastasia Nesvetailova 《New Political Economy》2015,20(3):431-453
This article focuses on the role the shadow banking system played in the financial crisis of 2007–9. Engaging with emergent theories of shadow banking, I inquire into its structural role in contemporary capitalism. My main premise here is that the crisis of 2007–9 is distinct in financial history because it did not centre on any organised market. Rather, it was crisis of the overcrowded financial channels bridging the present and the future, which have become congested because of the massive concentration of financial values generated, yet not sustained, through the shadow banking network. My analysis suggests that shadow banking has determined the nature of financial crisis of 2007–9 and continues to play a necessary role in financial capitalism based on futurity. Drawing on scholarship in financial Keynesianism, contemporary legal studies and early evolutionary political economy, I argue that shadow banking is best seen as the organic institutional infrastructure of financialised capitalism based on debt and geared towards futurity, a concept originally developed by John Commons. 相似文献