Regime switching in the yield curve

The article investigates the effect of interest‐rate variance on the shape of the yield curve with the use of a bivariate two‐state Markov switching model for the short‐rate changes and the yield curve slope. The two states are characterized by the variance of the short‐rate changes: low and high variance. In the high‐variance regime the yield curve becomes steeper with the interest‐rate variance; in the low‐variance regime the slope is independent hereof. A nonswitching specification amounts to averaging across the two states. The economy is in the high‐variance state during unusual economic periods. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:315–336, 2004     

The risk-return trade-off in human capital investment

In this paper, we analyze investments in human capital in a way which is standard for financial assets, but not (yet) for human capital assets. We study mean-variance plots of human capital assets. We compare the properties of human capital returns using a performance measure and by using tests for mean-variance spanning. Fields differ strongly not only in common rates of return, but also in return per unit of risk. We identify a range of educations that are efficient in terms of investment goods, and a range of educations that may be chosen for consumption purposes.     

Implied Volatility of Interest Rate Options: An Empirical Investigation of the Market Model

We analyze the empirical properties of the volatilityimplied in options on the 13-week US Treasury bill rate. These options havenot been studied previously. It is shown that a European style put optionon the interest rate is equivalent to a call option on a zero-coupon bond.We apply the LIBOR market model and conduct a battery of validity tests tocompare three different volatility specifications: contact, affine, and exponentialvolatility. It appears that the additional parameter in the affine and theexponential volatility function is not justified. Overall, the LIBOR marketmodel fares well in describing these options.     

Post Bretton Woods deviations from purchasing power parity in G7 exchange rates—an empirical exploration

Exchange rates have deviated substantially and idiosyncratically from purchasing power parity (PPP) since the breakdown of Bretton Woods. In this paper, a model incorporating both traditional PPP and financial market variables is constructed and tested on the US dollar's six G7 exchange rates during the floating rate era. Empirical tests show that the model's common set of variables—with consistent signs—can explain the divergent behavior of G7 exchange rates during 1973.2–90.2. Idiosyncracies are reflected in different subsets of the model's variables entering significantly into each exchange rate's regression; the existence of stable relationships is demonstrated by the equations' co-integration.     

An Anatomy of Price Dynamics in Illiquid Markets: Analysis and Evidence from Local Housing Markets

This research analyzes the dynamic properties of the difference equation that arises when markets exhibit serial correlation and mean reversion. We identify the correlation and reversion parameters for which prices will overshoot equilibrium ("cycles") and/or diverge permanently from equilibrium. We then estimate the serial correlation and mean reversion coefficients from a large panel data set of 62 metro areas from 1979 to 1995 conditional on a set of economic variables that proxy for information costs, supply costs and expectations. Serial correlation is higher in metro areas with higher real incomes, population growth and real construction costs. Mean reversion is greater in large metro areas and faster growing cities with lower construction costs. The average fitted values for mean reversion and serial correlation lie in the convergent oscillatory region, but specific observations fall in both the damped and oscillatory regions and in both the convergent and divergent regions. Thus, the dynamic properties of housing markets are specific to the given time and location being considered.     

Are impatient farmers more risk-averse? Evidence from a lab-in-the-field experiment in rural Uganda

Based on data from a field-experiment in rural Uganda, we show that impatient farmers are more risk-averse than patient farmers. We relied on a simplified version of the Convex Time Budget (CTB) method to elicit farmers’ time preferences and on an independent method for eliciting their risk-preferences. We report two important findings. First, we show that our simplified CTB method applied to farmers from Uganda replicates the key findings of Andreoni and Sprenger’s lab experiments that involved student subjects. Second, we establish the existence of a negative correlation between risk tolerance and impatience, based on two independent measures.     

The differential effects of CEO narcissism and hubris on corporate social responsibility

Research Summary: While prior studies have predominantly shown that CEO narcissism and hubris exhibit similar effects on various strategic decisions and outcomes, this study aims to explore the mechanisms underlying how narcissistic versus hubristic CEOs affect their firms differently. Specifically, we investigate how peer influence moderates the CEO narcissism/hubris—corporate social responsibility (CSR). With a sample of S&P 1500 firms for 2003–2010, we find that the positive relationship between CEO narcissism and CSR is strengthened (weakened) when board‐interlocked peer firms invest less (more) intensively in CSR than a CEO's own firm; the negative relationship between CEO hubris and CSR is strengthened when peer firms are engaged in less CSR than a CEO's own firm. Managerial Summary: Some CEOs are more narcissistic while others may be more hubristic, but these two groups of CEOs hold different attitudes toward the extent to which their firms should engage in corporate social responsibility (CSR). Our findings with a large sample of U.S. publically listed firms suggest that narcissistic CEOs care more about CSR, but hubristic CEOs care less. Interestingly, when narcissistic CEOs observe their peer firms engaging in more or less CSR than their own firms, they tend to respond in an opposite manner; in contrast, hubristic CEOs will only engage in even less CSR when their peers also do not emphasize CSR. Our findings point to a fundamental difference between CEO narcissism and hubris in terms of how they affect firms' CSR decisions based on their social comparison with peer firms.     

The link between attractiveness of “Extrabrand” attributes and the adoption of innovations

While innovators may rush to purchase many new products, most consumers are more conservative and do not want to buy into fads but purchase only those new products that are viable. How do the majority of consumers make judgments about whether they will adopt an innovation? This article examines the evaluative aspects of adoption as a means for better understanding consumer adoption and the market factors that may influence the success of an innovation. This research introduces a conceptual model that shows how consumers’ evaluation of product category attractiveness affects the adoption decision for really new products. These consumer evaluations are based on the attributes of the product category (“extrabrand” attributes) rather than brand attributes. Results from a test of the model indicate that consumers do use extrabrand attributes to assess the attractiveness of innovative new products.