On Conditional Density Estimation

With the aim of mitigating the possible problem of negativity in the estimation of the conditional density function, we introduce a so-called re-weighted Nadaraya-Watson (RNW) estimator. The proposed RNW estimator is constructed by a slight modification of the well-known Nadaraya-Watson smoother. With a detailed asymptotic analysis, we demonstrate that the RNW smoother preserves the superior large-sample bias property of the local linear smoother of the conditional density recently proposed in the literature. As a matter of independent statistical interest, the limit distribution of the RNW estimator is also derived.     

Developing the e-commerce sector for the fishery industry: What business are we really in?

In this study, we use the theory of the marketing firm to explain marketing relationships between consumers and firms selling fish in the context of developing the e-commerce sector for the fishery industry. We use a unique dataset composed of quantitative and qualitative data to provide a behavioral economic analysis and interpretation. The results reveal interdependent managerial and consumer behavioral relationships, indicating the presence of bilateral contingencies. The results also provide some indication of the theory of transaction cost, where cost-intensive activities are likely to be internalized within marketing firms selling fish.     

Policies to promote cereal intensification in Ethiopia: The search for appropriate public and private roles

Over the past decade, policymakers have been searching for an appropriate blend of public and private sector roles to accelerate the intensification of food staple production, smallholder commercialization, and sustainable market development in sub-Saharan Africa. In Ethiopia, steps taken to liberalize markets in the 1990s and promote fertilizer and seed packages have yet to generate payoffs in terms of higher cereal yields, lower food prices, or reduced dependency on food aid. This raises concern about the performance of the agricultural sector, specifically in terms of the systems for providing improved seed, fertilizer, credit, and extension services. This paper examines the evolving roles of the public and private sectors in intensifying cereal production in Ethiopia. Findings suggest that while Ethiopia has an admirable record of supporting agriculture, its state-led policies has now outlived their usefulness. These findings for Ethiopia offer lessons that are potentially applicable to other sub-Saharan African countries facing similar challenges.     

Impacts of the Productive Safety Net Program in Ethiopia on livestock and tree holdings of rural households

We evaluated the impacts of the Ethiopian Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) on rural households' holdings of livestock and forest assets/trees. We found no indication that participation in PSNP induces households to disinvest in livestock or trees. In fact, households that participated in the program increased the number of trees planted, but there was no increase in their livestock holdings. We found no strong evidence that the PSNP protects livestock in times of shock. Shocks appear to lead households to disinvest in livestock, but not in trees. Our results suggest that there is increased forestry activity as a result of PSNP, and that improved credit access encourages households to increase their livestock holdings.     

Does good governance matter for FDI inflows? Evidence from Asian economies

This paper examines the effects of the six components of good governance on foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in 15 Asian economies for the period 1996–2007 using a fixed effect model for panel data with heteroskedasticity corrected standard errors. The study also employs the feasible general least square (FGLS) and Prais-Winstein panel estimation methods in order to check the consistency of the results with the fixed effect model. The empirical results reveal that of the six components of good governance, political stability and absence of violence, government effectiveness, rule of law, and control of corruption are the key determinants of FDI inflows, as they exhibit consistent results under different models. However, the study finds no significant evidence with voice and accountability and regulatory quality in FDI inflows. The study reveals that human capital, infrastructure, lending rate, and GDP growth rate also have a significant influence on FDI inflows. We conclude that a country which can enhance its governance environment in general is likely to attract more foreign direct investment despite offsetting deficiencies in other dimensions of good governance such as voice and accountability and regulatory quality.     

Asymmetric Quantile Persistence and Predictability: the Case of US Inflation

This article investigates the evidence of time‐variation and asymmetry in the persistence of US inflation. We compare the out‐of‐sample performance of different forecasting models and find that quantile forecasts from an Auto‐Regressive (AR) model with level‐dependent volatility are at least as accurate as the forecasts of the Quantile Auto‐Regressive model, in particular for the core inflation measures. Our results indicate that the persistence of core inflation has been relatively constant and high, but it declined for the headline inflation measures. We also find that the asymmetric persistence of inflation shocks can be mostly attributed to the positive relation between inflation level and its volatility.     

Determinants and spatial variability of after-school travel by teenagers

This research work targeted teenagers to investigate after-school travel patterns and factors affecting their modal choice characteristics in Okinawa, Japan, where teenagers are not allowed to drive. The analysis is based on the cross-sectional data collected for discrete choice modeling of students’ travel in the prefecture. In this study, high school students’ trips from school to home have been analysed using a multinomial logit model. This has revealed the impact of individual, modal, and spatial variables on the mode choice decisions and return trip patterns. A comparative analysis made of downtown and suburb schools exposed differences in travel patterns induced by spatial factors and some existing constraints in modal choice options.     

Productivity effects of land rental market operation in Ethiopia: evidence from a matched tenant–landlord sample

As countries increasingly strive to transform their economies from agriculture‐based into a diversified one, land rental will become of greater importance. It will thus be critical to complement research on the efficiency of specific land rental arrangements such as sharecropping with an inquiry into the broader productivity impacts of the land rental market. Plot‐level data for a matched landlord–tenant sample in an environment where sharecropping dominates allow us to explore both issues. We find that pure output sharing leads to significantly lower levels of efficiency that can be attenuated by monitoring while the inefficiency disappears if inputs are shared as well. Rentals transfer land to more productive producers but realization of this productivity advantage is prevented by the inefficiency of contractual arrangements, suggesting changes that would prompt adoption of different contractual arrangements could have significant benefits.     

A bootstrap-based non-parametric forecast density

Interest in density forecasts (as opposed to solely modeling the conditional mean) arises from the possibility of dynamics in higher moments of a time series, as well as in forecasting the probability of future events in some applications. By combining the idea of Markov bootstrapping with that of kernel density estimation, this paper presents a simple non-parametric method for estimating out-of-sample multi-step density forecasts. The paper also considers a host of evaluation tests for examining the dynamic misspecification of estimated density forecasts by targeting autocorrelation, heteroskedasticity and neglected non-linearity. These tests are useful, as a rejection of the tests gives insight into ways to improve a particular forecasting model. In an extensive Monte Carlo analysis involving a range of commonly used linear and non-linear time series processes, the non-parametric method is shown to work reasonably well across the simulated models for a suitable choice of the bandwidth (smoothing parameter). Furthermore, an application of the method to the U.S. Industrial Production series provides multi-step density forecasts that show no sign of dynamic misspecification.     

Food versus fuel: examining tradeoffs in the allocation of biomass energy sources to domestic and productive uses in Ethiopia

Rural households in Ethiopia have limited options to meet their domestic energy needs because they lack access to modern fuels and technologies. Domestic use of certain fuel sources, such as cow dung, can hinder agricultural outcomes and productivity. This article explores the tradeoffs between domestic and productive uses of biomass energy sources in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia using a nonseparable farm household model where labor allocation to energy collection and farming are analyzed simultaneously. We estimate a system of five structural equations using three‐stage least squares and find that the use of dung as a domestic fuel source has negative implications for the value of harvested crops, while use of on‐farm fuelwood is associated with increased value of agricultural output. On‐farm production of fuelwood appears to increase the value of crop output and provide labor savings, by making fuelwood collection more convenient for households. Policy interventions to support the expansion of agroforestry and increase access to new energy‐efficient technologies are needed to ensure that agricultural productivity can be both increased and sustained.