New market creation through transformation

Is new market creation a search and selectionprocess within the theoretical space of all possible markets? Or is it the outcome of a process of transformation of extant realities into new possibilities? In this article we consider new market creation as a process involving a new network of stakeholders. The network is initiated through an effectual commitment that sets in motion two concurrent cycles of expanding resources and convergingconstraints that result in the new market. The dynamic model was induced from two empirical investigations, a cognitive science-based investigation of entrepreneurial expertise, and a real time history of the RFID industry. JEL Classification: M13, M31, D4, D52, D71, D72, L1, L2, P42 We would like to thank the Batten Institute at the Darden Graduate School of Business Administration, University of Virginia, for supporting this research. We would also like to thank the following on specific contributions to our thesis: Anil Menon for his relentless insistence on more precise formulations of effectual reasoning; Jim March for his conversation and for inspiring us to dig into Type I and Type II errors; Rob Wiltbank for firming up the section on opportunity costs; and Stuart Read for helping us clarify our writing. Correspondence to: S.D. Sarasvathy     

On the entrepreneurial genesis of new markets: effectual transformations versus causal search and selection

The generation of new markets is an emerging area of interest among researchers working in the traditions of evolutionary economics. And true to those traditions, the current study incorporates empirical evidence from psychology and cognitive science to develop micro-foundations for evolutionary theories of new market generation. In this paper we present an in-depth analysis of how expert entrepreneurs use effectual logic to conceptualize the creation of new markets. Our results challenge received wisdom based on search and selection processes and move beyond combinatorial ideas to develop instead a “transformational” view of market genesis.     

A Case Study of the Grey Oaks Community and Club: Creation of a High-Performance Culture Through the Innovative Use of a Data-Driven Business Plan

ABSTRACT

Grey Oaks, a premier country club and gated residential community established in Naples, Florida, developed and used a collaborative and highly feedback-driven system to build adaptive capacity and foster proactive change. Special attention has been given to the unique use and refinement of its business plan and planning process through the feedback management received from club members. This highly adaptive business plan helped Grey Oaks to endure the economic downturn that began in 2008, and the company’s ability to thrive in the midst of economic instability has demonstrated the effectiveness of the plan as a model capable of sustaining the cultural and financial health of the club and community. The Grey Oaks planning model has been an innovation in its industry, and other organizations can greatly benefit by studying the implementation and utilization of this evidence-driven model.     

Prediction and control under uncertainty: Outcomes in angel investing

Venture investing plays an important role in entrepreneurship not only because financial resources are important to new ventures, but also because early investors help shape the ventures' managerial and strategic destiny. In this study of 121 angel investors who had made 1038 new venture investments, we empirically investigate angel investors' differential use of predictive versus non-predictive control strategies. We show how the use of these strategies affects the outcomes of angel investors. Results show that angels who emphasize prediction make significantly larger venture investments, while those who emphasize non-predictive control experience a reduction in investment failures without a reduction in their number of successes.     

Evolutionary Processes,Moral Luck,and the Ethical Responsibilities of the Manager

The responsibilities of the manager have been examined through several lenses in the business ethics literature: Kantian (Bowie, 1999), contractarian (Donaldson and Dunfee, 1999), consequentialist (Friedman, 1970), and virtue ethics (Solomon,1992), to name just four. This paper explores what the ethical responsibilities of the manager would look like if viewed through an evolutionary lens. Discussion is focused on the impact of evolutionary thinking on the process of moral reasoning, rather than on the sources or the substance of morality. The conclusion is reached that the evolutionary lens supports the view that moral luck plays an important role in how we assign ethical responsibilities.     

An RFID application in large job shop remanufacturing operations

In this study, we evaluate the use of radio-frequency identification (RFID) technology for improving remanufacturing efficiency. We report the results of discrete-event simulation model that analyzes how RFID creates value within the remanufacturing operation. We find that the simulated gains from using RFID are quite modest, and propose alternative justifications for the major benefits seen in practice. We then provide a framework for deciding on the adoption of active RFID technology such as real-time location system (RTLS) for easy identification of components in the remanufacturing process and the adoption of passive RFID for permanently tagging components of remanufacturable products.     

Entrepreneurial logics for a technology of foolishness

Several years ago Professor March pointed out that rational choice involves two guesses, a guess about uncertain future consequences and a guess about uncertain future preferences, and called for the development of a technology of foolishness to complement the technologies of intelligence that have been developed to improve the first guess. In this essay we use empirical data from two separate studies of entrepreneurial expertise, one involving the creation of new ventures and the other the birth of a new industry to identify three logics that constitute working elements of a technology of foolishness: (1) the logic of identity, as opposed to the logic of preferences; (2) the logic of action, as opposed to the logic of belief; and (3) the logic of commitment, as opposed to the logic of transaction.