Self-Ratings and Expectations of the U.S. President, Ideal Physicians, and Ideal Automechanic

Relationships between self-ratings and expectations of an ideal U.S. president, were studied in 43 men drawn from a university setting in the eastern coast of the U.S.A. The men first rated themselves on personality variables, life choices (agentic and communal), peacefulness, spirituality, and morality. Then they were presented with a vignette requesting that they describe an ideal U.S. president on inventories measuring personality variables, life choices, peacefulness, spirituality, and morality. For the rating of the ideal U.S. president, they also were asked to respond to a 20 item questionnaire that was a composite of several factors on organization and leadership, morality, spirituality, and peacefulness. The respondents belonged to one of seven different political persuasions, similar in some ways to different cultures. Self-ratings of the men and expectations of the president were highly correlated for extraversion, openness, trait morality, agentic and communal life choices. However, no significant correlations were found between the self-ratings and expectations of the president for neuroticism, agreeableness, conscientiousness, peacefulness, nor state morality. The men were also presented with vignettes for the ideal physician and ideal automechanic and asked to rate each of them on the inventory items. Overall, the U.S. President was rated as more neurotic and immoral in terms of ingrained ideas of right and wrong, but also as more caring for others, transcendent, seeking goodness and truth, forgiving, cooperative, and most concerned with matters of justice and mercy, and more concerned with both agentic (power-seeking) and communal (community-minded) life choices than were either the ideal physician or ideal automechanic. The ideal physician was rated as highest in extra-version, openness, agreeableness, conscientiousness, and overall peacefulness, and lowest in neuroticism. The ideal automechanic was rated as highest in state or situational immorality, and lowest in both agentic (power-seeking, business-mindedness) and communal (community-mindedness) life choices, and also lowest in caring for others well-being, transcendence, seeking goodness and truth, forgiveness and cooperation, being concerned with justice and mercy, overall expectations, overall spirituality, and overall organization and leadership. In general, the self-ratings were significantly related to ratings/expectations, of the U.S. President, ideal physician, and ideal automechanic. The men seemed to identify more with the automechanic than with the present or physician.     

Measuring volatility with the realized range

Realized variance, being the summation of squared intra-day returns, has quickly gained popularity as a measure of daily volatility. Following Parkinson [1980. The extreme value method for estimating the variance of the rate of return. Journal of Business 53, 61–65] we replace each squared intra-day return by the high–low range for that period to create a novel and more efficient estimator called the realized range. In addition, we suggest a bias-correction procedure to account for the effects of microstructure frictions based upon scaling the realized range with the average level of the daily range. Simulation experiments demonstrate that for plausible levels of non-trading and bid–ask bounce the realized range has a lower mean-squared error than the realized variance, including variants thereof that are robust to microstructure noise. Empirical analysis of the S&P500 index-futures and the S&P100 constituents confirms the potential of the realized range.     

关于新疆生态移民问题的研究

本文对新疆生态移民的特点、生态移民遇到的问题及生态移民工作进展的现状,进行了分析和探讨,在此基础上提出了解决问题的一些对策和建议。     

Book Reviews

Leon A. Mears, The New Rice Economy of Indonesia, Yogyakarta: Gadjah Mada University Press, 1981, pp. xxiii + 605. Price US$15.

Alfian, Mely G. Tan, Selo Soemardjan (eds). Kemirkinan Struktural: Suatu Bunga Rampai (Structural Poverty: A Collection). Jakarta: Yayasan Ilmu-Ilmu Sosial (YIIS), 1980. pp. 189. Rp 2000.

Thee Kian Wie, Pemerataan- Kemiskinan- Ketimpangan (Equalization-Poverty-Uneven Distribution), Jakarta: Sinar Harapan. 1981, pp. 152. Rp 1750.

Bulletin Leknns, Year 1 No. 2, Feb. 1982, Special Edition on Employment Opportunity, Poverty and Population Mobility in Rural Areas, pp. 146.

Mubyarto (ed.), Growth and Equity in Indonesian Agricultural Development, Jakarta: Yayasan Agro Ekonomika, 1982. pp. xv + 258.

Muriel Charras, De la forêt malefique à I'herbe divine [From Malign Jungle to Divine Grain]: La transmigration en Indonesie: Les Balinais a Sulawesi, Paris: Editions de la Maison des sciences de I'homme 1982, pp, viii + 341. Price Fr. 90.00.

Yujiro Hayami and Masao Kikuchi. Asian Village Economy at the Crossroads: An Economic Approach to Institutional Change, Tokyo: University of Tokyo Press, 1981, pp. xvi + 275. Yen 4000. Geoffrey B. Hainsworth (ed.), Village-level Modernization in Southeast Asia: The Political Economy of Rice and Water. Vancouver: University of British Columbia Press. 1982. pp. ix + 411. Can$34.00.

Colin MacAndrews and Chia Lin-Sien (eds.). Too Rapid Rural Development: Perceptions and Perspectives from Southeast Asia, Athens: University of Ohio Press, pp. xiv + 369. Cloth $19.95, paper $10.95.

Gary E. Hansen (ed.), Agricultural and Rural Development in Indonesia, Boulder, Colorado: Westview Press, 1981, pp. xiv + 312.

William L. Collier, Declining Labour Absorption (1878 to 1980) in Javanese Rice Production, Bogor: Agro-economic Survey, Rural Dynamics Study, Publication No. 2, 1980, pp. 120.     

Credit rationing, interest rates and capital accumulation

A simple endogenous growth model is developed to characterize credit rationing through the capital accumulation process. The model shows that credit rationing on investment loans decreases as capital accumulates and the enforcement cost decreases. We find that the evolution of the interest rate factor (lending interest rate/depositing interest rate) has a similar pattern to the credit rationing probability. However, simulations show that the evolution of the interest rate spread through the capital accumulation process depends on the degree of the enforcement cost. In the empirical part of the paper, we consider fifty-two countries, at different stages of development, over the period 1995–2005. We confirm the theoretical findings relative to the evolution of the interest rate spread and interest rate factor with capital accumulation. These results suggest that, for economies endowed with costly contract enforcement, the interest rate factor could be a better proxy of credit rationing than the interest rate spread.     

A nonlinear long memory model, with an application to US unemployment

Two important empirical features of US unemployment are that shocks to the series seem rather persistent and that it seems to rise faster during recessions than that it falls during expansions. To jointly capture these features of long memory and nonlinearity, we put forward a new time series model and evaluate its empirical performance. We find that the model describes the data rather well and that it outperforms related competitive models on various measures of fit.     

Redesigning Product Lines with Conjoint Analysis: A Comment

In a recent article, Page and Rosenbaum [ Journal of Product Innovation Management 4; 120–137 (June 1987)] discuss the use of conjoint analysis at Sunbeam Corporation. Their article provides a nice illustration of a conjoint application to food processor appliance redesign decisions. In this note, Dick Wittink compares characteristics of Sunbeam's approach to both established and more recent results reported in the conjoint literature.