Are Hodrick-Prescott `forecasts' rational?

We evaluate the usefulness of the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter as a proxy for rational expectations, using long runs of annual US inflation data. Our conclusion is that while the HP series are not fully rational in the sense of Muth (1961), they do generally meet the criterion of `weak rationality' recently proposed by Grant and Thomas (1999). They are also rational proxy predictors of direction for, following Merton (1981), agents would not change their prior in the opposite direction to these `forecasts'. However, smoother HP `forecasts' are more prone to inefficiency and less useful predictors of direction. First Version Received: May 2000/Final Version Received: May 2001     

Strategic Responses to Regulatory Policies: What Lessons Can Be Learned from the U.K. Contract Gas Market?

The gas industry was first privatisedin 1986, and the regulator, Ofgas, identified thecontract gas market as a possibility for introducinginitial competition into the industry. Nevertheless,competing shippers were slow in entering the market.Subsequently, Ofgas introduced a series ofpro-competitive policies. It, however, invoked aseries of strategic behaviour by the incumbentshipper, British Gas. The effectiveness of thesemeasures are analysed here with respect to theevolving competitive process. The issues it raised,especially when formulating future regulatory policiesand theories, are also considered.     

Trade Integration and Business Cycle Convergence: Is the Relation Robust across Time and Space?*

In this paper we investigate the relationship between trade intensity and the business cycle correlation using a panel data set taken from 24 countries over the period 1959–2003. Most previous studies did not account for the possibility that the business cycle correlation may be influenced by unobservable country‐pair specific effects. Our estimates, using both fixed‐ and random‐effects methodologies, suggest that trade intensity and the business cycle correlation are positively related to one another. However, detailed investigation shows that this relationship exists mainly for the European countries.     

Network Access Regulation and Competition Policy: An Assessment of the “Direct-Plus-Opportunity Cost” Regime and Policy Options

A fundamental issue when determining competition policy, especially in vertically integrated industries, is the formulation of interconnection charges. Recently an influential set of theories on network access price has been put forward under the broad heading of direct-plus-opportunity cost regime (DOCR). This paper deals with two distinct but related aspects of DOCR. The first part of the paper considers the policy implications of an access regime determined by DOCR. Its compatibility in attaining contestable outcomes in the final goods market and its effect on welfare gains, especially producer's surplus, are evaluated. Secondly, the paper empirically applies a version of DOCR to the UK contract gas market, and the simulated outcomes and possible scenarios are considered.     

Confidence or competence: Do presidencies matter for households’ subjective preferences?

This paper investigates how households form subjective preferences. We examine the relationship between subjective economic confidence or sentiments and the perception of the incumbent government's competence, and consider how preferences affect each other. We further consider consequences of different presidencies. A theoretical model shows how households ‘anchor’ subjective views of the incumbent's competence on the household's confidence. Empirical analysis confirms the posited behavior and confirms that different presidencies have a bearing on the relationship.