Lessons from a basic income programme for Indigenous Australians

This article examines the importance of basic income in supporting development and economic security in remote Australian Indigenous communities. Specifically we draw on the case of the Community Development Employment Programme (CDEP) and examine its significant basic income features: it provided economic security, flexible definitions of work, community control and a means to establish community development initiatives. We find that CDEP suited the economic and cultural circumstances of remote-living Aboriginal people whose livelihoods depend on a hybrid form of economy inclusive of customary (non-market) practices rather than market capitalism. We then trace shifts in Indigenous policy in recent times which saw the dismantling of CDEP in the name of ‘real’ employment, and we examine the consequences of this for Aboriginal people. We end by proposing the reinstatement of a more complete basic income scheme, initially for people in remote Indigenous communities in Australia who are in deepest poverty.     

Non‐linear geographics and the economics of transition and democratization1

The purpose of this study is to analyse the effects of geography on the transition process in authoritarian political regimes, and to investigate the nature of the links between political change, economic reforms and geographical location. A simple model of transition and democratization is presented wherein we show that the effectiveness of repression by the incumbent elite is a negative function of the distance to the ‘free world’. In consequence, geography has conflicting effects on shifts in political power. This article provides a rationale for the counterintuitive fact that the first authoritarian country to start a transition process towards democratization is not necessarily the one nearest to the free world.     

State Tax Policy, Labor, and Tax Revenue Feedback Effects

A new computable general equilibrium model is used to predict the effects of tax rate changes on employment and other macrovariables in California. The model is dynamic in accounting for both migration and investment. The relative strength of migration, labor force participation, and investment in causing tax-rate-decrease-induced growth is examined. The model is used to contrast expected effects of a tax rate increase with and without migration and investment.     

A Green Vehicle Routing Problem

A Green Vehicle Routing Problem (G-VRP) is formulated and solution techniques are developed to aid organizations with alternative fuel-powered vehicle fleets in overcoming difficulties that exist as a result of limited vehicle driving range in conjunction with limited refueling infrastructure. The G-VRP is formulated as a mixed integer linear program. Two construction heuristics, the Modified Clarke and Wright Savings heuristic and the Density-Based Clustering Algorithm, and a customized improvement technique, are developed. Results of numerical experiments show that the heuristics perform well. Moreover, problem feasibility depends on customer and station location configurations. Implications of technology adoption on operations are discussed.     

Inferring volatility dynamics and risk premia from the S&P 500 and VIX markets

We estimate a flexible affine model using an unbalanced panel containing S&P 500 and VIX index returns and option prices and analyze the contribution of VIX options to the model’s in- and out-of-sample performance. We find that they contain valuable information on the risk-neutral conditional distributions of volatility at different time horizons, which is not spanned by the S&P 500 market. This information allows enhanced estimation of the variance risk premium. We gain new insights on the term structure of the variance risk premium, present a trading strategy exploiting these insights, and show how to improve S&P 500 return forecasts.     

Using signposts in future studies: Lessons from the Justice for tomorrow project

Within the field of future studies, the scenario method is frequently applied. In the literature it is often stressed that it is important to know as soon as possible which of several scenarios is closest to the course of history as it actually unfolds. However, tracking scenarios via early warning mechanisms or signposts, is not a common practice. A standard methodology seems to be absent. Within the context of the Justice for tomorrow project, a scenario project of the Dutch ministry of Justice, we developed and applied a signpost method. We used this method to answer the question of how actual developments relate to the development paths depicted in the scenarios. In this paper we evaluate our approach. We explain what lessons can be learned regarding the use of signposts in future studies.