A market model of analysts’ opinions to explain changes in the dispersion of opinions

The demand for and supply of analysts’ opinions in this model yield an equilibrium that demonstrates how the information content of the opinions reacts to changes in exogenous parameters. The model also shows how changes in the parameters make analysts’ opinions more or less dispersed; for example, a decline in investor risk aversion, a decrease in market volatility, and an increase in information costs can lead to analysts’ opinions becoming more similar. Recognizing how exogenous factors can affect the supply and demand of analysts’ opinions gives additional insights into questions concerning what may appear to be herd behavior by analysts and also the relationship between forecast dispersion and information content. (JEL: G29, C71)     

The LeChatelier-Samuelson principle revisited

Within the context of a linear Leontief model, the LeChatelier-Samuelson principle examines the effects of an increase in some final demand on the output levels under the constraint that the production of certain goods is held at its original value. The principle states that the increase in any output is larger when fewer output levels are kept constant. The present paper discusses bounds for such incremental changes, second-order effects, the consequences on the markets for the products with restricted output levels, and generalizations of the original assumptions.I would like to thank two anonymous referees for their helpful comments.     

The “swing of the pendulum” from public to market support for science and technology: Is the U.S. leading the way?

The structure and financing of science and technology activities are undergoing a slow, but profound, change. This change can be briefly characterized as a shift from relying and supporting public science to a stronger emphasis on “market-based” incentives for science and technology. In this paper we analyze this shift in a historical perspective, discussing both the theoretical explanations and the empirical trends of the ongoing change. While we do not claim to provide a comprehensive and exhaustive identification of the causes of this shift, we argue that it is largely driven by the perception of a shift of the U.S. policy towards market-based, rather than publicly supported, incentives for science and technology. This, in turn—given the strong economic performance of the United States over the 1990s—has influenced policies in most OECD countries, especially in Europe.We conclude by analyzing the evolution of research in U.S. higher education and find two major trends: an increasing diversity in the number of institutions of different types other than universities and a steady and continuous public funding of the leading U.S. universities. This has allowed the construction of an infrastructure now used largely by the private sector, but it also noted that the United States has not compromised public support for core areas or in those fields in which there is a clear perception that market incentives are not sufficient for meeting the strategic targets of the U.S. policy. The implication is that there is a considerable policy diversity in the U.S. practice and that all aspects of this diversity should be considered when using the United States as a reference.     

Infrastructures and Societal Change. A View from the Large Technical Systems Field

Infrastructural and societal changes intertwine in multiple ways. This makes the societal implications of infrastructural projects difficult to assess and anticipate. Yet in present day network societies this task is particularly urgent. This paper first identifies two positions that tend to monopolize and deadlock debates. Next it examines two decades of research in the Large Technical System (LTS) research field for alternative approaches to this issue, before finally suggesting distinguishing between the four increasingly indirect moments of (co-) construction of infrastructures and societies. These may be related causally, but also add their own moments of contingency, agency, and choice.     

A note on “Bed allocation techniques based on census data”

Capacity planning and resource allocation are crucial to the cost-effective delivery of health care services. In this paper, we present an analytic approach based on a modified version of the Holt-Winters multiplicative seasonality forecasting model to determine the frequency distribution associated with a hospital care unit's census. This paper is a follow-up to the census frequency distribution simulation model described in Lapierre et al. (Socio Econ. Plan. Sci. 33 (1999) 25). We demonstrate that our model can provide census frequency distributions equivalent to the simulation model of Lapierre et al. [1], but without the computational effort common to simulation models.     

External technology acquisition in large multi-technology corporations

Based on different contractual forms and their associated degrees of organizational integration, a typology of strategies for technology acquisition (sourcing) is constructed. Based on a sample of corporations in Europe, Japan and US, it is shown that external acquisition of technology through various strategies increases in importance in general. Product case studies further show that external acquisition of technology is associated with technology diversification into increasingly costly new technologies. As a result corporations become multi-technological ('multech'). At the same time quasi-integrated corporate systems of innovation arise in which in-house R&D is managed together with a mix of strategies for external acquisition of technology, using various contractual forms. This presents new challenges to traditional in-house R&D management. Technology diversification is moreover shown to be associated with growth of sales as well as with growth of R&D expenditures. A high level of external technology acquisition presents risks that ought to lead companies to consider technology based product diversification.     

Strategizing through analyzing and influencing the network horizon

How does a firm keep on being valuable in a network? One requirement is that the firm has a sufficient overview of the network and its dynamics. In other words, a firm's strategy depends on the firm's overview of the network—its network horizon. How comprehensive or limited should its network horizon be? Is it necessary to know the network beyond the direct counterparts? Such issues have not received much attention. In this article, we discuss network horizons and argue that limited network horizons are both inevitable and useful. However, such myopia requires that a firm's counterparts effectively and efficiently mediate between the firm and the rest of the network. Based on a case study, we introduce and discuss three mediating functions of counterparts: a joining, a relating, and an insulating function, and we claim that in order to support a firm's strategizing, managers need to analyze and influence counterparts' mediating functions and thereby the firm's network horizon.     

Analysing Materials and Energy Flows in an Industrial District using an Enterprise Input–Output Model

Recent approaches to sustainable development leave much room for policies at a local level. In fact, it is becoming evident that targets such as increasing resource productivity, preserving natural cycles, or extending the present level of welfare, are best pursued within the confines of a local area. In particular, environmental changes are best brought about by considering local systems of firms as cornerstones of cooperative strategies and using data on materials and energy use in physical terms. In this paper, an enterprise input–output model is developed for an industrial district, i.e. a local group of firms specialized in the production of a single final output. The model allows for a detailed quantitative analysis of materials and energy flows and the consequent generation of waste and pollution. As a planning tool, the model may be used to evaluate alternative scenarios, such as the possibility of re- using waste taking account of sustainability requirements. An empirical case study applies the model to an industrial district in Southern Italy producing leather sofas.     

Social Scientific Explanations?

Generally valid scientific explanations of observable social phenomena are still hardly available. By applying philosophical insights generated by Quine and derived from semiotics to social research methodology three kinds of context dependencies accompanying theory formation within social science are identified. The third context dependency is mostly not attended in theory formation about social phenomena thereby producing a ``connotation fallacy', which leaves almost all social theories undetermined and fallible. These context dependencies should be taken into account in the research design and be tested for using statistical criteria comprising a new methodology presented in this article.