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Some financial stress events lead to macroeconomic downturns, while others appear to be isolated to financial markets. We identify financial stress regimes using a model that explicitly links financial variables to macro‐economic outcomes. The stress regimes are identified using an unbalanced panel of financial variables with an embedded method for variable selection. Our identified stress regimes are associated with corporate credit tightening and with NBER recessions. An exogenous deterioration in our financial conditions index has strong negative effects in economic activity, and negative amplification effects on inflation in the stress regime. These results are obtained with a novel factor‐augmented vector autoregressive model with smooth‐transition regimes (FASTVAR). 相似文献
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ANA PINTO BORGES DOMINIQUE HENRIET DIDIER LAUSSEL 《Journal of Public Economic Theory》2011,13(4):481-502
We analyze the optimal contract between a risk neutral regulator providing a curative goods and a risk averse patient who learns the realized value of his/her health status after the contracting stage. Consumption of a curative good (healthcare) reduces the disutility associated with a disease. We show that the consumption of curative goods is larger than in the complete information case, that this overprovision increases with the degree of patients’ risk‐aversion and the marginal cost of treatment. Ceilings on the amount of healthcare are part of the optimal contract when risk aversion is important. 相似文献
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FIDAN ANA KURTULUS 《劳资关系》2011,50(4):678-712
This study explores the consequences of grouping workers into diverse divisions on the performance of employees using a dataset containing the detailed personnel records of a large U.S. firm from 1989 to 1994. In particular, I examine the effects of demographic dissimilarity among co‐workers, namely differences in age, gender, and race among employees who work together within divisions, and non‐demographic dissimilarity, namely differences in education, work function, firm tenure, division tenure, performance, and wages among employees within divisions. I find evidence that age dissimilarity, dissimilarity in firm tenure, and performance dissimilarity are associated with lower worker performance, while wage differences are associated with higher worker performance. My analysis also reveals that the effects of certain types of dissimilarities get smaller in magnitude the longer a worker is a part of a division. Finally, the paper provides evidence that the relationships between performance and the various measures of dissimilarity vary by occupational area and division size. 相似文献
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FIDAN ANA KURTULUS 《劳资关系》2012,51(2):213-246
The share of minorities and women comprising high‐paying skilled occupations such as management, professional, and technical occupations has been increasing since the 1960s, while the proportion of white men in such occupations has been declining. What has been the contribution of affirmative action to the occupational advancement of minorities and women from low‐wage unskilled occupations into high‐wage skilled ones in U.S. firms? I examine this by comparing the occupational position of minorities and women at firms holding federal contracts, and thereby mandated to implement affirmative action, and noncontracting firms, over the course of 31 years during 1973–2003. I use a new longitudinal dataset of over 100,000 large private‐sector firms across all industries and regions uniquely suited for the exploration of this question obtained from the U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission. My key findings show that the share of minorities and women in high‐paying skilled occupations grew more at federal contractors subject to affirmative action obligation than at noncontracting firms during the three decades under study, but these advances took place primarily during the pre‐ and early Reagan years and during the decade following the Glass Ceiling Act of 1991. 相似文献
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ANA SIMPSON 《Contemporary Accounting Research》2010,27(1):249-288
In this study I examine how analysts process nonfinancial information and how this is affected by the patterns of firms’ nonfinancial information disclosures. More specifically, I examine the association between analyst earnings forecast errors and the persistence of nonfinancial disclosures, both across information content and over time. The study focuses on firms in the wireless industry for the period 1997–2007. The results show that analysts tend to underreact to the information contained in customer acquisition cost, average revenue per user, and the number of subscribers. These are the performance measures that have significant predictive ability for future earnings of wireless firms. Distinguishing between firms on the basis of their nonfinancial disclosure patterns reveals that the above findings are driven primarily by firms with irregular disclosures. There is no evidence of analysts’ inefficiency in evaluating the content of nonfinancial metrics provided by persistently disclosing firms. This implies that the lack of systematic disclosures of performance measures restricts financial analysts’ ability to fully analyze the contributions of these metrics for future earnings. 相似文献
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ANA SIMPSON 《Contemporary Accounting Research》2010,27(1):15-15
L’auteure examine comment les analystes traitent l’information non financière et comment ce traitement est influencé par le profil des entreprises en ce qui a trait à la publication d’informations non financières. Elle se penche plus précisément sur le lien entre les erreurs des analystes dans les prévisions de résultats et la régularité de la publication d’informations non financières, selon des variables de contenu en information et de temps. L’étude est centrée sur les entreprises du secteur de la communication sans fil et la période s’échelonnant de 1997 à 2007. Les résultats révèlent que les analystes ont tendance à réagir de façon trop modérée aux informations contenues dans le coût d’acquisition de clients, le revenu moyen par utilisateur et le nombre d’abonnés. Ces données sont les indicateurs de performance qui ont un pouvoir prédictif important pour ce qui est des résultats futurs des entreprises de communication sans fil. L’établissement de la distinction entre les entreprises en fonction de leur profil de publication d’informations non financières révèle que les constatations qui précèdent touchent principalement les entreprises qui se caractérisent par l’irrégularité de la publication d’informations. Rien ne permet de conclure à l’inefficacité des analystes dans l’évaluation du contenu des indicateurs non financiers fournis par les entreprises qui publient des informations avec régularité. Ces observations signifient que le manque de régularité dans la publication d’indicateurs de performance restreint la capacité des analystes financiers d’analyser en profondeur l’apport de ces indicateurs pour ce qui est des résultats futurs. 相似文献
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In view of the concept of laboratory federalism, the Open Method of Coordination (OMC), adopted by the EU as a mode of governance, can be interpreted as an imitative learning dynamics of the type considered in evolutionary game theory. Its iterative design and focus on good practice are captured by the behavioral rule “imitate the best.” In a redistribution game with utilitarian governments and mobile welfare recipients, we compare the outcomes of imitative behavior (long‐run evolutionary equilibria) and decentralized best‐response behavior (Nash equilibria). The learning dynamics leads to coordination on a strict subset of Nash equilibria, favoring policy choices that can be sustained by a simple majority of Member States. 相似文献