A parametric control function approach to estimating the returns to schooling in the absence of exclusion restrictions: an application to the NLSY

An innovation which bypasses the need for instruments when estimating endogenous treatment effects is identification via conditional second moments. The most general of these approaches is Klein and Vella (J Econom 154:154–164, 2010), which models the conditional variances semiparametrically. While this is attractive, as identification is not reliant on parametric assumptions for variances, the nonparametric aspect of the estimation may discourage practitioners from its use. This paper outlines how the estimator can be implemented parametrically. The use of parametric assumptions is accompanied by a large reduction in computational and programming demands. We illustrate the approach by estimating the return to education using a sample drawn from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979. Accounting for endogeneity increases the estimate of the return to education from 6.8 to 11.2%.     

Institutional dimensions underlying public trust in information on technological risk

This paper examines the determinants of trust in public information on technological risk in a petrochemical complex located in Tarragona (Spain). Data from focus groups (eight) and a questionnaire survey (N = 400) are drawn together to analyse how two local communities exposed to major chemical hazards perceive information on risk and its sources. Results show how trust relies on two main factors, namely expertise and trustworthiness, that are significantly influenced by a third one, antagonism. Results also illustrate the relevance of the institutional context when understanding how communities give meaning to the available information on risk.     

Simulation-based costing for early phase life cycle cost analysis: Example application to an environmental remediation project

Simulation-based costing (SBC) has been slow to be adopted by the traditional cost estimating community. This can be attributed to many factors, including complexity, how to gather data and develop probabilistic inputs, cost of SBC software, and a lack of understanding of the benefits of developing cost versus risk profiles. This article presents an overview of how SBC can be effectively utilized for early phase life cycle cost (LCC) estimation. A formal process for conducting LCC incorporating SBC is presented not only to provide a structured approach but to also convey to stakeholders how such a study is conducted. This article also presents a case study where total ownership cost versus risk profiles were developed using this proposed process in order to support budgetary and planning considerations for a large environmental remediation project. This research argues that SBC is needed during the concept exploration phase because this is when budgets are often fixed and expectations set.     

Combining Opinions for Use in Bayesian Networks: A Measurement Error Approach

Bayesian networks (BNs) are graphical probabilistic models used for reasoning under uncertainty. These models are becoming increasingly popular in a range of fields including engineering, ecology, computational biology, medical diagnosis and forensics. In most of these cases, the BNs are quantified using information from experts or from users' opinions. While this quantification is straightforward for one expert, there is still debate about how to represent opinions from multiple experts in a BN. This paper proposes the use of a measurement error model to achieve this. The proposed model addresses the issues associated with current methods of combining opinions such as the absence of a coherent probability model, the loss of the conditional independence structure of the BN and the provision of only a point estimate for the consensus. The proposed model is applied to a subnetwork (the three final nodes) of a larger BN about wayfinding in airports. It is shown that the approach performs well than do existing methods of combining opinions.     

Credit and business cycles’ relationship: evidence from Spain

This study provides evidence on the interaction between business and credit cycles in Spain during the period 1970–2014. The paper works on three analyses: the cycle turning points are identified; the main features of credit and business cycles are documented; and in both cycles the causal relationship is assessed. We find differences in the features of the business and credit cycle phases, which lead to a scant degree of synchronization over time. The lack of synchronization might be a sign that the cyclic interaction could be non-contemporaneous. Our results reveal that there is causation. A significant lagged relationship between business and credit cycles is found; specifically, fluctuations of the business cycle lead fluctuations of the credit to non-financial corporations and a lag exists with respect to the fluctuations of the credit to households. We also examine episodes of credit boom and credit crunch. In the period 1970–2014, Spanish credit booms did not involve deeper business cycle contractions and credit crunches were not associated with deeper and longer business cycle contractions. These differences are related with the great importance of the real estate sector in Spain.     

Estimating and interpreting the local economic benefits of visitor spending: an explanation

Research into the economic impacts of visitor spending on host communities has a long history. While such research has been ‘popular’ with, and useful for, tourism policy makers it has also been subject to questioning by some academic authors in terms of relevance, validity and difficulty of understanding. This paper addresses these questions by detailing and discussing the underlying concept and its translation into practice using, as an example, the data collection, analysis, and results from one study. The objective, in addition to giving an exposition to the nonspecialist reader, is to consider key issues involved in conducting and interpreting the findings of such research.     

Does Increasing Parents’ Schooling Raise the Schooling of the Next Generation? Evidence Based on Conditional Second Moments*

This article investigates the degree of intergenerational transmission of education for individuals from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979. Rather than identifying the causal effect of parental education via instrumental variables we exploit the feature of the transmission mechanism responsible for its endogeneity. More explicitly, we assume the intergenerational transfer of unobserved ability is invariant to the economic environment. This, combined with the heteroskedasticity resulting from the interaction of unobserved ability with socioeconomic factors, identifies the causal effect. We conclude that the observed intergenerational educational correlation reflects both a causal parental educational effect and a transfer of unobserved ability.     

Emotional intelligence,job satisfaction,well‐being and engagement: explaining organisational commitment and turnover intentions in policing

This study examines the effect of emotional intelligence upon the job satisfaction, well‐being and engagement of police officers in explaining their organisational commitment and turnover intentions. Survey responses from 193 police officers in Australia were analysed using partial least squares path modelling. As predicted, emotional intelligence leads to job satisfaction and well‐being, with positive path relationships leading to employee engagement and organisational commitment, thereby affecting turnover intentions. Organisational commitment was found to partially mediate the causal relationship between employee engagement and turnover intentions. The findings of this research have important theoretical and practical implications for police officer retention.     

The efficiency of the Environmental Management Charge in the Cairns management area of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park*

Using data from a survey of more than 1000 domestic visitors to the Northern section of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) – predominantly those travelling on live‐aboard dive boats – this research investigates the (tax) efficiency of the Environmental Management Charge (EMC). The travel cost method (with a zero truncated negative binomial specification) is used to estimate the price elasticity of demand, and those estimates are used to estimate the deadweight losses, the losses in visitor numbers that could be ‘blamed’ on the EMC and the associated taxation revenues for different types of trips. The welfare loss for each dollar of revenue raised from the EMC was estimated at less than one per cent for each type of trip considered. The analysis therefore suggests that, for these types of trips in this part of the reef at least, the EMC is a very efficient tax – particularly when compared with other taxes. This has important implications beyond the GBR, particularly in countries who struggle to find sufficient funds to properly manage world heritage areas: taxes such as these may be a relatively efficient and equitable means of collecting such revenues.     

Climate change impacts on investment in crop sowing machinery*

A model of investment in crop sowing machinery is applied to wheat production under current and projected climatic conditions at several locations in south‐western Australia. The model includes yield responses to time of sowing at each location given current and projected climatic conditions. These yield relationships are based on wheat growth simulation modelling that in turn draws on data from a down‐scaled global circulation model. Wheat price distributions and cost of production data at each location, in combination with the time of sowing yield relationships are used to determine a farmer's optimal investment in crop sowing work rate under each climate regime. The key finding is that the impacts of climate change on profit distributions are often marked, yet mostly modest changes in investment in work rate form part of the profit‐maximising response to climate change. The investment response at high versus low rainfall locations mostly involves increases and decreases in work rates, respectively. However, changes to investment in work rate within a broadly similar rainfall region are not always uniform. The impacts of climate change on investments in work rate at a particular location are shown to require knowledge of several factors, especially how climate change alters the pattern of yield response to the time of sowing at that location.