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A large part of official economic data sets is produced with the help of assumed functional relations between variables. Constructing economic models on the basis of such model-generated data results in a "modeling on the basis of the results of modeling." This common procedure can lead to consequences that seriously endanger the quality of empirical analyses. After discussing some of these dangerous consequences the authors explore the reasons behind this development. To avoid some of the most severe difficulties a "Charter for Compilation and Correct Handling of Economic Data" is proposed. 相似文献
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Gottfried Haber Reinhard Neck Warwick J. McKibbin 《International Advances in Economic Research》2006,12(1):1-15
In this paper, we analyze the reactions of European economies to a fiscal policy strategy aiming at diminishing the public sector. Within the framework of the MSG3 model, a macroeconomic model of the world economy, we perform several simulation experiments to explore the effects of reducing government expenditures permanently in different phases of the business cycle. For this purpose, we combine the fiscal contraction with negative and positive, Euro Area-wide and global, supply and demand shocks. It turns out that adverse Keynesian effects on output and employment tend to be mostly weak and short-lived, whereas long-run effects on output and employment are favorable. Due to these long-run effects, the fiscal contraction policy raises welfare as measured by an asymmetric quadratic objective function. The size of these welfare effects depends on the initial situation in a non-trivial manner. 相似文献
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Gottfried Haber 《Empirica》2001,28(1):69-95
The macroeconometric simulation model AMOD1 and the optimization algorithm OPTCON are used to evaluate fiscal policies for Austria since the late seventies. In particular, the question of optimal (debt stabilizing) fiscal policies for the past and for the future is analyzed within the framework of a medium-scaled simulation model. The first set of optimization experiments aims to assess optimal fiscal policies for debt stabilization for the historical period 1978–2000 while trying to maintain reasonable growth rates of approximately 2 percent of real GDP. Optimal values of the instruments and the targets are compared to empirical data for Austria. A second set of simulations calculates optimal paths for the fiscal instruments for the period 2001-2010, particularly with respect to the criteria of the Stability and Growth Pact, which is mandatory for member states of the Euro zone. 相似文献
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Gottfried Koch 《保险科学杂志》2003,92(1):161-200
E-business processes between insurance companies and their private customers allow — in comparison to conventional business processing — savings in administrative expenses up to 30 per cent. However, today’s e-business processes are often described as little transparent and stereotyped. Users, therefore, complain them being far to complex and, as a consequence, do not accept them. Relating to research in the field of customer behaviour, it has been proved that even in e-business processes customers like to be contacted and treated individually. This can be reached by corresponding to the cognitive ability and the personal involvement of each customer. By using those mechanisms information processing becomes ?hospitable‘ or even ?human-alike‘. Chatter-bots simulate human behaviour in e-business processes and will possibly replace personnel in certain areas. Therefore, chatter-bots seem a suitable instrument to introduce successfully e-business processes between insurance companies and their private customers. Two positive consequences could be reached: first, process efficiency could be raised and second, cost-savings in processing could be gained. 相似文献
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Gottfried Haber 《International Advances in Economic Research》2000,6(2):150-162
This paper evaluates the welfare effects in a block of selected eastern European countries (Bulgaria, Romania, former Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Poland, and former Yugoslavia) emerging from the possibility to participate in the European integration process and to act as strategic players in dynamic games. The results of the cooperative and noncooperative dynamic game scenarios are compared with fixed policy solutions. The McKibbin-Sachs global model (MSG2 model), which incorporates rational expectations, is used as a framework. A global supply-side shock and a fixed exchange rate regime are considered under the alternative policy layouts. It is shown that international economic cooperation may be advantageous over noncooperation. For the anchor currency of the European Monetary Union (EMU), fixing the eastern European block currencies to the EMU may lead to significant destabilization. 相似文献
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After the EU enlargement in 2004, there is a clear commitment of the EU and the new member states to aim at an enlargement of the euro zone within the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) as well. This might have significant effects on the old EMU, the new members, and even on the global economy. The present paper analyzes some macroeconomic effects and particularly the impact on the effects of stabilization policies when switching to an enlarged euro zone under different assumptions about fiscal and monetary policy regimes in Europe and under alternative types of economic shocks. Also, the implications for the US of different European monetary regimes are evaluated. The results suggest that economic benefits for all countries are rather small. For the Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs), even disadvantages may dominate. 相似文献
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