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The objective of this paper is to analyse how much the traditions of history research (HR) and futures research (FR) have in common and how they could assist each other. First, the role of time is analysed. Second, the path dependence theory, strategic decision-making, knowledge management and visionary management are discussed. Examples of the application of the latter in water and sanitation services and their long-term development are shown. Finally, some argumented views are presented on how the convergence between FR and HR could be improved.The key point of this research is the seeming discontinuity between presents, recent pasts and near futures. The traditions of HR probably make it more difficult to assess the effects of strategic decisions on the recent. If more convergence is wanted, the gap should be filled somehow. On the other hand, the core of FR research seems to concentrate more on strategic and visionary horizons while perhaps neglecting the operational horizon of the near future. 相似文献
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This paper aims to provide a comprehensive insight into the role that unemployment plays in influencing new firm formation. Panel data models and micro-level data are used to help achieve this objective. We endeavour to identify simultaneously the separate effects of personal, regional and national unemployment on new firm formation in Finland for the period 1987–1995. The results indicate considerable evidence for a positive and non-linear effect of personal unemployment on the likelihood of an individual to become an entrepreneur. The findings also indicate that the economic situation has an effect on firm formation: times of low unemployment and business prosperity favour entrepreneurship. On the other hand, the analysis gives no clear evidence of the regional unemployment situation affecting the likelihood of founding a business. 相似文献
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Totti Könnölä Author Vitae Ville Brummer Author Vitae Ahti Salo Author Vitae 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》2007,74(5):608-626
Foresight activities have often provided support for objectives such as priority-setting, networking and consensual vision-building. In this paper, we draw upon complementary evolutionary perspectives and discuss these objectives from the viewpoint of diversity which may be vital in contexts characterized by technological discontinuities and high uncertainties. We also argue that although the scanning of weak signals has been widely advocated in such contexts, the solicitation of ideas for prospective innovations may provide more focused, action-oriented, and comparable reflections of future developments. For the analysis of such ideas, we develop a collaborative foresight method RPM Screening which consists of phases for the generation, revision, multi-criteria evaluation, and portfolio analysis of innovation ideas. We also report experiences from a pilot project where this method was employed to enhance the work of the Foresight Forum of the Ministry of Trade and Industry in Finland. Encouraging results from this project and other recent applications suggest that RPM Screening can be helpful in foresight processes and the development of shared research agendas. 相似文献
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Do accountabilities change when public organisations transform to service systems: A new conceptual approach
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Petri Virtanen Jari Stenvall Tony Kinder Omaima Hatam 《Financial Accountability and Management》2018,34(2):166-180
In this conceptual paper, we discuss from the service systems perspective how accountabilities differ from a hierarchic and organisational perspective within the domain of New Public Management, looking to shed new light upon accountability as a research topic. The concept of service systems and their accountabilities are scrutinised and the role of integrated social and health care services is discussed in particular. The main argument in the text is the changing nature of accountabilities as the public organisations are being transformed into service systems. To date, the understanding of accountability has remained structural by nature – such is the case also for productivity measurement – but the shift from organisations towards services systems means that accountability ought to be considered as processual by nature. By processual it is meant that accountability should be considered as flows within systems – that is: flows between agents the content of which we argue includes not only knowledge on the outputs of public services, but also values, empathy and thus multi‐layered understanding of accountability. The paper concludes with practical insights for managerial purposes on the basis for this accountability shift. 相似文献
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Gail Whiteman D. René de Vos F. Stuart Chapin III Vesa Yli‐Pelkonen Jari Niemelä Bruce C. Forbes 《Business Strategy and the Environment》2011,20(4):251-265
Cities are key drivers of global climate change, with the majority of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions being tied to urban life. Local actions to mitigate and adapt to climate change are essential for stabilization of the global climate and can also help to address other urban ecological problems such as pollution, decreasing biodiversity, etc. Companies are important urban actors in the development of low‐carbon cities because they provide a multitude of goods and services to city populations and directly influence urban carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. This is a new area of research. While studies on corporate sustainability are numerous, there is little, if any, existing research that examines the role of companies in climate change adaptation and mitigation within specific urban areas. Urban ecologists also have not examined how corporate activity affects urban systems. Taking a multi‐disciplinary systems approach, we present a conceptual model of the role of companies in managing urban interactions with the climate system. We also present empirical findings illustrating how one company ‘partners’ with the city of Rotterdam to test electric vehicles as a pilot project for urban climate adaptation and mitigation. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment. 相似文献
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The paper explores the emergence of street-level public service integration in eight cities, in five countries using a new framework: services-as-a-system to explore new public governances in health and social care integration. Data is analysed from eight cities in six countries (Australia, Canada, The Netherlands, Spain, UK, and USA) gathered in over 100 semi-structured interviews with key agents. We show that whilst culture and context shape the form and processes of governances there are underlying processual drivers of new public governances, in particular where users are involved in the co-design and co-production of integrated services. 相似文献
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In the evaluation of investment subsidies one of the critical issues concerns the assessment of deadweight, that is, the degree to which projects would have been carried out without grant assistance. With the increasing restrictions on and cuts in subsidies for investment projects in the EU countries maximisation of the impact of the public resources that remain can be achieved through their allocation for projects with minimum deadweight. This paper studies the profile of subsidised zero deadweight investment projects – projects that would be abandoned without public subsidies – in Finland. The empirical analysis is conducted using micro level data on investment projects by private sector firms. The data set comprises 3,423 projects that were granted public investment subsidies between 2001 and 2003. Our results show that the likelihood of zero deadweight is significantly dependent on the characteristics of the subsidised firm, the characteristics of the investment project and the location of the subsidised firm. 相似文献
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The idea of the contingent valuation method for measuring the value of non-marketed goods, proposed by Ciriacy-Wantrup in 1947, found its first application in a study by Davis (1963) at the beginning of 1960's on valuing recreational benefits of forests. Since then, contingent valuation and related methods like choice experiments have become a standard part of forest economists' toolkits. During their history, the pros and the cons of methods of valuing non-marketed benefits of nature have been intensively discussed in the literature. One of the questions, considered also in earlier editorials of this Journal, is what are we actually measuring.Reallocating land from timber production to nature conservation has been a prominent trend in northern Europe and North America during recent decades. On many occasions, this has caused public debates, the spotted owl controversy in western United States being a well known example. In Finland, the implementation of the European Union's nature conservation programme, Natura 2000 Network, at the end of 1990's resulted in a heated public controversy.Public debate and the arguments presented went out of all proportion as compared to the actual proposal. In the Natura 2000 Network proposal, only 5 % of the conserved area were newly protected sites, and newly protected forestland area was 0.15 % of the productive forest land area in Finland. Still, it was claimed that the programme would severely restrict forestry, endanger the profitability of forest industries and violate private forest owners' property rights. The Ministry of Environment received over 14.000 written complaints from private landowners concerning the conservation areas proposed.After the conflict, social scientists have tried to find out what actually went wrong. The most important reason seems to have been the fact that the environmental administration neglected land owners by leaving them completely out of the process of policy planning and designing the areas to be conserved. A contingent valuation survey on Finnish households' willingness to pay for increased conservation in the form of the Natura 2000 Network (Pouta et al. 2002), indicated that the planning process itself had a significant negative effect on Finnish households' welfare. Those respondents who were offered a nature conservation programme similar to Natura 2000 Network, but without the Natura label were willing to pay five times more for the increase than those who received the conservation project within the Natura 2000 Network. According to a choice experiment survey (Li et al. 2001), the proposal would have actually lost a majority vote in Finland.Preliminary results of a survey conducted in year 2002 on increasing biodiversity conservation in forests in Southern Finland indicate much more positive attitudes towards nature conservation (Lehtonen et al. 2002) than the survey on Natura 2000 Network just a few years earlier. One reason for this may be that preferences have changed. Partly, the results may reflect the fact that the later survey is very explicit on the effects of the programme on biodiversity, which seem to matter more than the hectares conserved. However, one reason may also be that this time the planning has not got the bad publicity of Natura 2000 Network, at least not yet.Since Fischhoff and Furby (1988), researchers have been aware of the fact that the context is an important determinant of willingness to pay for public goods. However, at least in Finland, this does not seem to have been common knowledge to environmental groups or policy planners. On the other hand, maybe it is exactly these kinds of features of non-market valuation techniques that cause environmental groups and even many academic natural scientists and ecologists to view the methods and mindset of economists with grave suspicion. Non-market valuation methods seem somehow to dilute the value of nature, which should be preserved whatever the costs.However, disregarding the effects of policy planning, or the perceived property rights of the landowners, is not going to make conservation policies more effective. In fact, if conservation controversies decrease citizens' utility given the proposed level of conservation, they decrease willingness to pay, and make it more difficult to justify conservation measures. Other things being equal, as customers we are more likely to enter a shop with good, reliable service, and a friendly smile can save the day, even if we decide not to make the purchase that time. This is how the human mind works: why should it be any different in the market for environmental goods and services?ReferencesCiriacy-Wantrup SV (1947) Capital returns from soil-conservation practices. Journal of Farm Economics 29: 1181-1196.Davis RK (1963) The value of outdoor recreation: an economic study of the Maine woods Ph. D. thesis, Harvard University. Fischhoff B, and Furby L (1988) Measuring values: a conceptual framework for interpreting transactions with special reference to contingent valuation of visibility. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 1: 147-184.Lehtonen E, Kuuluvainen J, Pouta E, Rekola M, and Li C-Z (2002) Stated preferences of the forest conservation in southern Finland. Scandinavian Forest Economics (forthcoming)Pouta E, Rekola M, Kuuluvainen J, Li C-Z, and Tahvonen O (2001) Willingness to pay in different policy-planning methods: Insights into respondents' decision-making processes. Ecological Economics 40: 295-311.Li C-Z, Kuuluvainen J, Pouta E, Rekola M, Tahvonen O (2001) Using choice experiments to value Natura 2000 nature conservation program in Finland. Helsingin yliopisto - University of Helsinki Metsäekonomian laitos - Department of Forest Economics Tutkimusraportteja - Reports 18. 相似文献