Valuing the Redevelopment Option Component of Urban Land Values

This study draws from the redevelopment, real option, and urban spatial growth literatures to explore the spatial dynamics of the components of house prices. More specifically, the paper proposes that the capitalized value of the option to redevelop housing at the property level can be estimated by incorporating the likelihood of exercising the redevelopment option (the probability of redevelopment) into spatial and nonspatial hedonic house price models. Accordingly, option values are estimated for properties across the spectrum of the housing life cycle. Results from the study reveal a substantial level of spatial variation and clustering in the predicted option values, indicating that location is a major determinant of redevelopment and real option values. Furthermore, the results provide new evidence in support of the theoretical construct that properties purchased for immediate redevelopment are only valued for the underlying land.     

On the Relation between Local Amenities and House Price Dynamics

This study explores the extent to which local amenities are related to house price volatility, returns and risk‐adjusted returns across 238 MSAs. We find strong evidence that high amenity areas experience greater price volatility. In regards to returns, high amenity areas experience greater (lower) real returns in appreciating (depreciating) markets. However, high amenity areas experience little to no abnormal risk‐adjusted returns. Results from the study are robust to an endogenous treatment of amenities and land supply elasticity. Overall, we conclude that the desirability of a metropolitan area is a significant channel through which land values drive house price dynamics.     

Analyst Hype in IPOs: Explaining the Popularity of Bookbuilding

The bookbuilding IPO procedure has captured significant marketshare from auction alternatives recently, despite the significantlylower costs related to the auction mechanism. In France, whereboth mechanisms were used in the 1990s, the ostensible advantagesof bookbuilding were advertising-related benefits. Book-builtissues were more likely to be followed and positively recommendedby lead underwriters. Even nonunderwriters' analysts promotebook-built issues more in order to curry favor with the IPOunderwriter for allocations of future deals. Yet we do not observevaluation or post-IPO return differentials that suggest thesetypes of promotion have any value to the issuing firm.     

Developing countries and the future of the automobile industry

This paper reassesses the controversial view which has assumed that, at some point in the future, the global automobile industry, having reached maturity, would naturally migrate to the leading developing countries where the markets are growing more rapidly and wages are substantially lower. The authors argue that the threshold facing a developing country seeking to establish a domestic automobile industry has risen because of two recent developments: the rise of Japan as a major automobile producer; and a new wave of technological and organizational innovation. This involves use of state-of-the-art microelectronics and flexible manufacturing system, as well as complete restructing of component supply resulting in considerable unit cost and lead-time advantages.The authors look at what these trends mean for both the OECD and the developing countries. They outline the conventional view in more detail and then present an alternative analysis of the evolution of the industry. New policy options for the developing countries are spotlighted.     

Impacts of WTO restrictions on subsidized EU sugar exports

The study evaluates the impact of World Trade Organization (WTO) restrictions on the European Union (EU) sugar sector and the world sugar market. A small reduction in production quotas would be sufficient to satisfy the export subsidy limitations of the Uruguay Round agreement. Complete elimination of export subsidies by 2005 would require either a 10% reduction in production quotas or the combination of an 8% reduction in quotas and an 11% reduction in intervention prices. Higher world prices resulting from reduced EU exports would result in increased production of unsubsidized C‐sugar, with different impacts across EU member countries explained by differences in institutional pricing arrangements and marginal production costs.     

The Persistence of IPO Mispricing and the Predictive Power of Flipping

This paper examines underwriters' pricing errors and the information content of first-day trading activity in IPOs. We show that first-day winners continue to be winners over the first year, and first-day dogs continue to be relative dogs. Exceptions are "extra-hot" IPOs, which provide the worst future performance. We also demonstrate that large, supposedly informed, traders "flip" IPOs that perform the worst in the future. IPOs with low flipping generate abnormal returns of 1.5 percentage points per month over the first six months beginning on the third day. We show that flipping is predictable and conclude that underwriters' pricing errors are intentional.     

Conflict of interest and the credibility of underwriter analyst recommendations

Brokerage analysts frequently comment on and sometimes recommendcompanies that their firms have recently taken public. We showthat stocks that underwriter analysts recommend perform morepoorly than 'buy' recommendations by unaffiliated brokers priorto, at the time of, and subsequent to the recommendation date.We conclude that the recommendations by underwriter analystsshow significant evidence of bias. We show also that the marketdoes not recognize the full extent of this bias. The resultssuggest a potential conflict of interest inherent in the differentfunctions that investment bankers perform.     

A Real Options Model of Real Estate Development with Entitlement Risk

Most development projects encounter a highly uncertain entitlement process that is largely uncontrollable by developers. In this study, entitlement is modeled as a separate stage within a compound real option, where developers begin with minimal control (maximum risk) and each successful stage increases control (decreases risk). We solve the model analytically, provide three‐dimensional numerical comparisons, and empirically test the model's predictions using hand collected rezoning petitions. Our main result refines the classic development option model: developers first invest early (secure entitlements) in order to obtain the option to subsequently delay investment (construct the optimal building at the optimal time).     

Auctioned IPOs: The US evidence

Between 1999 and 2007, WR Hambrecht completed 19 initial public offerings (IPOs) in the US using an auction mechanism. We analyze investor behavior and mechanism performance in these auctioned IPOs using detailed bidding data. The existence of some bids posted at high prices suggests that some investors (mostly retail) try to free-ride on the mechanism. But institutional demand in these auctions is very elastic, suggesting that institutional investors reveal information in the bidding process. Investor participation is largely predictable based on deal size, and demand is dominated by institutions. Flipping is at most as prevalent in auctions as in bookbuilt deals. But, unlike in bookbuilding, investors in auctions do not flip their shares more in “hot” deals. Finally, we find that institutional investors, who provide more information, are rewarded by obtaining a larger share of the deals that have higher 10-day underpricing. Our results therefore suggest that auctioned IPOs can be an effective alternative to traditional bookbuilding.     

Lean consumption

During the past 20 years, the real price of most consumer goods has fallen worldwide, the variety of goods and the range of sales channels offering them have continued to grow, and product quality has steadily improved. So why is consumption often so frustrating? It doesn't have to be--and shouldn't be--the authors say. They argue that it's time to apply lean thinking to the processes of consumption--to give consumers the full value they want from goods and services with the greatest efficiency and the least pain. Companies may think they save time and money by off-loading work to the consumer but, in fact, the opposite is true. By streamlining their systems for providing goods and services, and by making it easier for customers to buy and use those products and services, a growing number of companies are actually lowering costs while saving everyone time. In the process, these businesses are learning more about their customers, strengthening consumer loyalty, and attracting new customers who are defecting from less user-friendly competitors. The challenge lies with the retailers, service providers, manufacturers, and suppliers that are not used to looking at total cost from the standpoint of the consumer and even less accustomed to working with customers to optimize the consumption process. Lean consumption requires a fundamental shift in the way companies think about the relationship between provision and consumption, and the role their customers play in these processes. It also requires consumers to change the nature of their relationships with the companies they patronize. Lean production has clearly triumphed over similar obstacles in recent years to become the dominant global manufacturing model. Lean consumption, its logical companion, can't be far behind.