Implications of the minimum access rice import on supply and demand balance of rice in Japan

The recent development of rice policies in Japan are summarized. The impact of the minimum access (MA) import on the supply and demand balance of rice, and the rice diversion areas in the future is also predicted.     

Vertical intra-industry trade and foreign direct investment in East Asia

As economic integration in East Asia progresses, trade patterns within the region are displaying an ever-greater complexity: Though inter-industry trade still accounts for the majority, its share in overall trade is declining. Instead, intra-industry trade (IIT), which can be further divided into horizontal IIT (HIIT) and vertical IIT (VIIT), is growing in importance.In this paper, we set out to measure and examine vertical intra-industry trade patterns in the East Asian region and compare these with the results of previous studies focusing on the EU, to which such analyses so far have been confined. Based on the supposition that VIIT is closely related to offshore production by multinational enterprises, we then develop a model to capture the main determinants of VIIT that explicitly includes the role of FDI. The model is tested empirically using data from the electrical machinery industry. The findings support our hypothesis, showing that FDI plays a significant role in the rapid increase in VIIT in East Asia seen in recent years. J. Japanese Int. Economies 17 (4) (2003) 468–506.     

Irreversible investment and Knightian uncertainty

When firms make a decision about irreversible investment, they may not have complete confidence about their perceived probability measure describing future uncertainty. They may think other probability measures perturbed from the original one are also possible. Such uncertainty, characterized by not a single probability measure but a set of probability measures, is called “Knightian uncertainty.” The effect of Knightian uncertainty on the value of irreversible investment opportunity is shown to be drastically different from that of traditional uncertainty in the form of risk. Specifically, an increase in Knightian uncertainty decreases the value of investment opportunity while an increase in risk increases it.     

On the Relationship between Japanese Manufacturing Firms and their Domestic Subsidiaries

Much past research on ownership policy has dealt with foreign subsidiaries. In this paper, we study the ownership relationship between Japanese firms and their publicly-traded domestic subsidiaries. Using a transaction cost framework, we find that benefiting from high subsidiary profitability is not the sole motivation behind parent firms' decisions regarding equity control of their subsidiaries. Our results indicate that different policies are adopted by Japanese firms with respect to domestic and foreign subsidiaries.     

Modeling international trade flows and market shares for agricultural commodities: a modified Armington procedure for rice

The Armington procedure (AP) has become increasingly popular in agricultural trade analyses. However, some arguments have arisen concerning the relevance of using the procedure for such analyses. This study examines the assumptions commonly made when using the Armington procedure and suggests modifications for agricultural trade analyses. Results from models utilizing rice-trade data suggest that the assumptions of the single constant elasticity, in particular, may not be appropriate for analyzing agricultural trade. These results also suggest that, with proper modifications, the AP can be applied to agricultural trade. Further, results of a modified Armington procedure indicate that trade in rice exports is highly competitive and that changes in market shares of individual exporters are not independent of changes in budget expenditure allocated to imports.     

Individual Characteristics,Behavioral Biases,and Trade Policy Preferences: Evidence from a Survey in Japan

Import liberalization is one of the most actively debated issues in trade policy. This paper examines how trade policy preferences are related to individual characteristics based on a survey in Japan. Among 10,000 surveyed individuals, people working in non‐agricultural sectors, those working in managerial occupations, or those above retirement age tend to favor freer imports. This paper also finds that people who are influenced by the status quo bias are likely to oppose import liberalization even after controlling for each individual's various characteristics, suggesting that neither income compensation nor insurance schemes are sufficient for expanding support for free trade.     

Residential rents and price rigidity: Micro structure and macro consequences

Why was the Japanese consumer price index for rents so stable even during the period of the housing bubble in the 1980s? To address this question, we use a unique micro price dataset which we have compiled from individual listings (or transactions) in a widely circulated real estate advertisement magazine. This dataset contains more than 700,000 listings of housing rents over the last 20 years. We start from the analysis of microeconomic rigidity and then investigate its implications for aggregate price dynamics, closely following the empirical strategy proposed by Caballero (Caballero and Engel, 2007). We find that 90% of the units in our dataset had no change in rents per year, indicating that rent stickiness is three times as high as in the United States. We also find that the probability of rent adjustment depends little on the deviation of the actual rent from its target level, suggesting that rent adjustments are not state-dependent but time-dependent. These two results indicate that both the intensive and extensive margins of rent adjustments are small, resulting in a slow response of the CPI for rent to aggregate shocks. We show that the CPI inflation rate would have been higher by 1% point during the bubble period, and lower by more than 1% point during the period following the burst of the bubble, if Japanese housing rents were as flexible as those in the United States.