Investment, uncertainty and irreversibility

This paper investigates the irreversibility of investments and the impact this has on the nature of the relationship between investment and uncertainty. The empirical analysis uses firm‐level data and is based on a survey of 210 rice‐milling firms in the Mekong River Delta in Vietnam, which was carried out during the year 2000. We show that uncertainty reduces investment of rice millers in the presence of irreversibility, as is predicted by the real options approach to investment. We do not find evidence that the negative association between uncertainty and investment is influenced by the degree of irreversibility.     

Early Retirement and Bridge Employment Intentions Among Older Workers in Singapore

This paper examined the relevance of 14 demographic, cognitive, and affective factors in individuals' intentions to voluntarily retire early and to secure bridge employment after retirement. Results based on a sample of 361 respondents aged between 40 and 59 suggested that marital status, perceived negative age-health relationship, gender psychological readiness for retirement, and family orientation were related to early retirement intentions. Work centrality, perceived organisational attitude towards older employees, and psychological readiness for early retirement were related to bridge employment intentions. Implications for research were discussed.     

Trade-offs in sulfur emission trading in Europe

How to implement emission trading is one question in the current negotiations on a new sulfur protocol in Europe. Whereas the current protocol stipulates a 30 percent uniform reduction, national emission ceilings included in the proposed new protocol imply differentiated reductions. In addition, emission and fuel standards are proposed. This paper examines the costs and environmental impacts of emission trading. Emission trading combined with regulations is a new element in the paper. Calculations using the RAINS (Regional Acidification INformation and Simulation) model suggest that overlaying emission trading on regulations not only reduces the cost savings but has beneficial impacts as well: ecosystem protection is not changed and significant decreases in environmental benefits for countries are largely avoided. Emission trading can also be used to decrease emissions and increase ecosystem protection. If combined with existing legislation, emission trading minimizes losses in expected environmental benefits for some countries, and most countries gain. However, the initial distribution of emission ceilings has to be used so that some countries are not confronted with higher costs. Trade-offs appear to exist between the use of emission trading to achieve cost savings on the one hand, and ecosystem protection and distributional equity on the other.     

Carbon Trading with Imperfectly Observable Emissions

The Kyoto Protocol foresees emission trading but does not yet specify verification of (uncertain) emissions. This paper analyses a setting in which parties can meet their emission targets by reducing emissions, by investing in monitoring (reducing uncertainty of emissions) or by (bilaterally) trading permits. We derive the optimality conditions and carry out various numerical simulations. Our applications suggest that including uncertainty could increase compliance costs for the USA, Japan and the European Union. Central Europe and the Former Soviet Union might be able to gain from trading due to higher permit prices. Emissions trading could also lower aggregate uncertainty on emissions.     

How to define and study farmers' management capacity: theory and use in agricultural economics

Textbooks and articles on farm management stress the importance of the management capacity of the farmer with respect to his farm results. However, explicit definitions together with an elaboration of this concept are hard to find. In this article, aspects of management capacity are grouped into: (1) personal aspects, consisting of fanner's drives and motivations, fanner's abilities and capabilities and his biographical facts such as age and education; and (2) aspects of the decision-making process, consisting of practices and procedures with respect to planning, implementation and control of decisions at the farm. Empirical studies on the role of management capacity in relation to farm results are reviewed. Frontier production functions are widely used in recent literature to estimate technical and economic efficiency of farms. However, in explaining differences in efficiency most studies do not go further than adding a biographical variabk (e.g., level of education). This study concludes that a next step would be to include aspects of the decision-making process. Longitudinal on-farm observations, which give possibilities for studying the dynamic aspects of the decision-making, are suggested to further analyze the concept of management capacity.     

Booking horizon forecasting with dynamic updating: A case study of hotel reservation data

A highly accurate demand forecast is fundamental to the success of every revenue management model. As is often required in both practice and theory, we aim to forecast the accumulated booking curve, as well as the number of reservations expected for each day in the booking horizon. To reduce the dimensionality of this problem, we apply singular value decomposition to the historical booking profiles. The forecast of the remaining part of the booking horizon is dynamically adjusted to the earlier observations using the penalized least squares and historical proportion methods. Our proposed updating procedure considers the correlation and dynamics of bookings both within the booking horizon and between successive product instances. The approach is tested on real hotel reservation data and shows a significant improvement in forecast accuracy.     

Trust and Understanding,Two Psychological Aspects of Randomized Response

This study examines two different Randomized Response methods to see whether they evoke sufficient understanding and trust, and ensure fewer evasive answers to socially sensitive questions. Two Randomized Response methods were employed by trained interviewers to study fraud: the Forced Response method, using dice, and Kuk's method, using playing cards. Respondents were selected from the files of the social security offices of three Dutch cities. A total of 334 respondents participated voluntarily in this study of two Randomized Response methods. Most respondents were known to have committed some form of fraud, and their answer on the Randomized Response question is validated with this information. The results indicate that subjects who have a better understanding of the Forced Response technique give more socially undesirable answers. The interviewer has a most important role establishing trust and understanding. Respondents who are less able to understand the instructions, e.g., have limited language abilities, develop less trust in the method.     

Impact of late payment on Firms' profitability: Empirical evidence from Malaysia

This paper examines whether late payment (LP) by customers impacts firms' profitability, using a cross-sectional sample of 287 Malaysian public-listed manufacturing firms for the financial year 2007. This is an important issue given that trade credit is commonly seen as a significant short-term financing practice in Asia. However, in Malaysia, trade credit has not been explored, largely due to the unavailability of relevant published data and the reluctance of firms to divulge information regarding their trade credit practices. To overcome this, we suggest a new measure of LP using the Pareto 80:20 rule to take cognisance of local nuances and industry practice, and argue that Pareto Days Overdue is an appropriate measure of LP for Malaysia. We find that 60% of the sampled firms experience LP and LP has a significant inverse effect on their profitability; and those with shorter credit terms and Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) perform better than those with longer credit terms and longer DSO. The paper also discusses implications for policy makers and regulators since the accounting rules related to the disclosure of receivables in Malaysia are converging towards the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS).     

Service innovation adopters: Multiple discriminant analyses of automatic teller machine cardholders versus nonholders

This article reports a study of the differences between ATM cardholders and nonholders in terms of demographic, attitudinal, social, computer-related product experience characteristics. The findings reveal differences between cardholders and nonholders which can be useful in the refinement of banks' marketing strategies for ATM.William R. Swinyard, a visiting faculty member at National University of Singapore when this research was conducted, is a Professor of Business Management at Brigham Young University, Provo, Utah, USA. Leow Ger Ghee is a B.B.A (Honours) graduate of the National University of Singapore.