Evaluation of national foresight activities: Assessing rationale, process and impact

The paper addresses the question of what constitutes an appropriate evaluation strategy for national foresight activities in different situations. The variety of rationales for foresight is explored, ranging from a desire to set priorities through to participation-oriented goals and building new networks around common visions and strategies. A generational model of foresight is used to show the evolution of key evaluation issues. The generic motivations for evaluation of accountability, justification and learning are discussed in the context of foresight. Evaluation grounded in the concept of behavioural additionality and the systems failure rationale is shown to be more suited as a rationale for foresight as public policy.Assessing the effects of foresight requires an understanding that it is only one of several influences on public policy. To be effective it needs to be tuned into the strategic behaviour and cycles of policy and economic actors. Cases are presented of evaluation of foresight programmes in the United Kingdom, Germany and Hungary. It is concluded that there is no “one-size-fits-all” evaluation approach and that the method selected is conditioned by motivation, timing and the level of aggregation. Foresight cannot be fully evaluated independently from its context. Foresight is being strengthened by the emergence of rigorous and systematic knowledge to assist learning and improvement.     

Differences in the Cost of Trade Execution Services on Floor-Based and Electronic Futures Markets

This paper provides new evidence on the impact of electronic trading on brokerage commissions by investigating a sample period that covers the period of transition from floor to electronic trading on the Sydney Futures Exchange. After controlling for liquidity, volatility and broker identity, the introduction of electronic trading remains to be associated with lower brokerage commissions relative to floor markets. The study also provides new evidence on brokerage commissions in futures markets finding that commission fees charged on futures trades average 0.002% of transaction value. This is up to 120 times smaller than the magnitude of brokerage fees charged in stock markets, and considerably lower than the magnitude of brokerage fees assumed for futures markets in previous research. Consistent with existing studies based on stock markets, commissions charged per contract decrease with order size reflecting economies of scale in the provision of brokerage services in futures markets. Commission rates are positively related to bid-ask spreads and price volatility, which proxy for the probability of execution error costs and execution difficulty, respectively. Finally, the identity of the broker is found to be a significant determinant of commissions reflecting different pricing schedules across brokers.     

Fluctuating levels of personal role engagement within the working day: A multilevel study

In this diary study, we examined a theoretical model in which the psychological conditions of meaningfulness, availability, and safety serve as mechanisms through which the work context during discrete situations within the workday influences “state” engagement. We further theorised that a person's “trait” level of engagement would exert cross‐level effects on the state level relationships. Multilevel analyses based on a sample of 124 individuals in six organisations and 1,446 situational observations revealed that meaningfulness and availability (but not safety) mediated the relationships between perceptions of the work context and state engagement. High levels of trait engagement strengthened the within‐person relation between availability and state engagement, yet weakened the within‐person relation between meaningfulness and state engagement, suggesting two different processes may be at play. Overall, the findings advance our understanding of engagement as a multilevel and temporally dynamic psychological phenomenon and promote a contextually based HRM approach to facilitating engagement.     

Economics at the Antitrust Division: 2017–2018

This article describes some of the work of Antitrust Division economists over the past year, with a focus on modeling. It begins by illustrating the mapping from evidence to prediction using tools for assessing the effects of mergers using Bertrand, Cournot, and auction models. It then turns to two hot topics in competition policy: the implications of claims of increasing margins for merger enforcement and the validity of claims of increasing concentration. Finally, it considers how mergers affect prices in bargaining models.     

Do retail mergers affect competition? Evidence from grocery retailing

This study estimates the price effects of horizontal mergers in the U.S. grocery retailing industry. We examine fourteen regions affected by mergers, including mergers in highly concentrated and relatively unconcentrated markets. We identify price effects by comparing markets affected by mergers to unaffected markets using difference‐in‐difference estimation with three different comparison groups, propensity score weights, and by using the synthetic control method. Our results are robust to the choice of control group and estimation technique. We find that mergers in highly concentrated markets are most frequently associated with price increases, and mergers in less concentrated markets are most often associated with price decreases.     

Non-regular professionals' dual commitment in South Korea: antecedents and consequences

There is a growing concern with whether nonregular professionals are concurrently committed to both the organization and their profession and whether such commitments are beneficial to that organization. This article seeks to investigate the relationship between organizational justice variables and the dual commitment of nonregular professionals via perceived organizational support (POS) and the subsequent effect of the dual commitment on organizational citizen behavior. Hypotheses are developed and then tested through structural equation modeling with data collected from a total of 1143 part-time instructors at South Korean universities. The findings of this study reveal that the perceptions held by nonregular professionals of organizational justice constructs concurrently influence organizational commitment and professional commitment via POS and that both commitments are positively associated with altruistic behavior. The findings advance our understanding of the dual commitment of nonregular professionals and provide universities with managerial implications as to how to manage effectively part-time instructors. Limitations, directions for future research, and conclusions are presented.     

Length of stay and economic consequences with rivaroxaban vs enoxaparin/vitamin K antagonist in patients with DVT and PE: findings from the North American EINSTEIN clinical trial program

Objective:

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) (deep vein thrombosis [DVT] and pulmonary embolism [(PE]) represents a substantial economic burden to the healthcare system. Using data from the randomized EINSTEIN DVT and PE trials, this North American sub-group analysis investigated the potential of rivaroxaban to reduce the length of initial hospitalization in patients with acute symptomatic DVT or PE.

Methods:

A post-hoc analysis of hospitalization and length-of-stay (LOS) data was conducted in the North American sub-set of patients from the randomized, open-label EINSTEIN trial program. Patients received either rivaroxaban (15?mg twice daily for 3 weeks followed by 20?mg once daily; n?=?405) or dose-adjusted subcutaneous enoxaparin overlapping with (guideline-recommended ‘bridging’ therapy) and followed by a vitamin K antagonist (VKA) (international normalized ratio?=?2.0–3.0; n?=?401). The open-label study design allowed for the comparison of LOS between treatment arms under conditions reflecting normal clinical practice. LOS was evaluated using investigator records of dates of admission and discharge. Analyses were carried out in the intention-to-treat population using parametric tests. Costs were applied to the LOS based on weighted mean cost per day for DVT and PE diagnoses obtained from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project dataset.

Results:

Of 382 patients hospitalized, 321 (84%), had acute symptomatic PE; few DVT patients required hospitalization. Similar rates of VTE patients were hospitalized in the rivaroxaban and enoxaparin/VKA treatment groups, 189/405 (47%) and 193/401 (48%), respectively. In hospitalized VTE patients, rivaroxaban treatment produced a 1.6-day mean reduction in LOS (median?=?1 day) compared with enoxaparin/VKA (mean?=?4.5 vs 6.1; median?=?3 vs 4), translating to total costs that were $3419 lower in rivaroxaban-treated patients.

Conclusion:

In hospitalized North American patients with VTE, treatment with rivaroxaban produced a statistically significant reduction in LOS. When treating DVT and PE patients, clinicians should consider newer anti-coagulants with less complex treatment regimens.     

Book Reviews

Ian Chalmers and Vedi R. Hadiz (eds) (1997), The Politics of Economic Development in Indonesia, Routledge, London, pp. xxx + 269. A$155.00.

Geoff Forrester (ed.) (1999), Post-Soeharto Indonesia: Renewal or Chaos? Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore, and KITLV Press, Leiden, pp. 373. Cloth: S$49.90/US$32.90; paper: S$29.95/US$19.95/A$29.95.

Corden, Max (1999), The Asian Crisis: Is There a Way Out?, Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore, pp. 82. S$19.90/US$12.90.

Karl D. Jackson (ed.) (1999), Asian Contagion: The Causes and Consequences of a Financial Crisis, Westview Press, Boulder CO, pp. xvi + 312. Cloth: US$75.00; Paper: US$30.00.

H.W. Arndt and Hal Hill (1999), Southeast Asia's Economic Crisis: Origins, Lessons and the Way Forward, Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore, pp. 192. Cloth: S$66.90/US$44.90; paper: S$28.00/US$17.90/A$29.95.

Manuel F. Montes (1998), The Currency Crisis in Southeast Asia: Update, Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore, pp. xl + 62. Cloth: S$36.00 /US$24.00; paper: S$25.90/US$17.90.     

The microstructure of Asian equity markets

This study provides an overview of six stock markets in Asia, including Hong Kong, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, and Thailand. We find that the Asian stock exchanges have adopted numerous new concepts in terms of market structure, trading method, and the clearing and settlement system. As a group, they provide an intersting setting for empirical investigation due to their unique characteristics not found in the stock exchanges in advanced countries.     

Economics Research at the FTC: Information,Retrospectives, and Retailing

Individual Federal Trade Commission (FTC) cases invariably raise broad questions about consumers, markets, and effective enforcement policy. Recent consumer protection cases raise questions about information regulation. Horizontal merger enforcement has recently focused on retrospective analysis of mergers and the role of the retail sector in predicting the effects of manufacturer mergers. In this paper, we describe research by the FTCs Bureau of Economics that addresses these three areas. We argue that such research is well worth the agencys relatively small resource investment because it demonstrably contributes to more thoughtful policy analysis and better policy outcomes.